羡羡的加密日记

Please listen to my sincere words patiently, coin traders!

Whether you hold BTC tightly, love ETH, or are optimistic about BNB, please pause your busy trading and take a few minutes to feel my advice from the bottom of your heart.

When the halo of the coin circle allows you to achieve financial freedom, remember the following nine "don'ts", they may help you avoid many unnecessary twists and turns.

First, don't let people around you peek into the secrets of your coin trading. In this world, those who understand will naturally understand, no need to say more.

Second, don't easily expose your income. Income charts and asset charts are all triggers for jealousy and trouble, so it's better to keep a low profile.

Third, don't show off your rich life in the circle of friends. Except for close relatives, few people really hope that you live better than him. Excessive show-off will only attract unnecessary jealousy.

Fourth, when you have a huge fortune, you should also keep a proper distance from old friends. Many predecessors in the coin circle have chosen to live a low-key life after gaining financial freedom, and even gradually drifted away from their past friends.

Fifth, gambling and drugs, don't touch these two things! Gambling will ruin your psychology, and drugs will ruin your physiology. Once you are infected, the consequences will be disastrous.

Sixth, don't easily call people stupid B, harmony is the most important, and getting angry will only affect your fortune. When you meet those who consume you, just stay away from them, no need to say more.

Seventh, don't take the initiative to do good, and don't pity others easily. Everyone has his own destiny, and being yourself is the greatest contribution to the world.

Eighth, don't invest in areas you don't understand. Remember, people can never make money beyond their own cognition, and blind investment will only make you lose all your money.

Ninth, resolutely don't touch physical entrepreneurship unless you are passionate about it and don't make money as the only purpose. In the current economic environment, physical entrepreneurship is extremely risky, and if you are not careful, you may be unable to recover.

These are advices, but I sincerely hope you can listen to them. Although the currency circle is good, you must also act with caution. I hope you will be more stable and go further and further on the road of currency speculation.

Which are the best altcoins?
Deflation coins:
BNB, FLOKI, SHIB
Fully circulated coins:
PEPE, BOME, PEOPLE, NOT, WIF

$PONS
It’s been consolidating for quite a while. If it weren’t for the R Chain market cooling down temporarily, it would very likely have already made new highs. Even if the launchpad sector is performing only average, PONS can still reliably earn hundreds of thousands in revenue to repurchase and burn. Currently, the burn ratio has already exceeded 30%, and the actual market cap is not 630 million.

Whether it’s futures or on-chain performance, we’re currently in a consolidation-uptrend phase. When the R Chain market warms up again, it has the potential to challenge a $1 billion market cap. The current price around 0.63 is suitable for laying in (entry), and the value-for-money is quite good.

$TAO As the leading AI sector stock, I’m relatively optimistic about the long term. I entered the position a couple of days ago and already have roughly 20% in gains. The AI market trend hasn’t finished yet: TAO’s subnet revenue and its buyback actions are continuously raising market expectations.

The support zone is 278‑285—this is an area where you can add positions. Only when the price truly breaks above 315 and holds, will the next wave of upside space open up.

In addition, here are a few other AI coins worth keeping an eye on:
$RENDER
: Primarily focused on AI computing power / GPUs. If the AI trend continues, there may still be opportunities. It has already risen once, so it’s not ideal to chase. Watch for an opportunity around a pullback near 1.7; if it breaks above $2 with strong volume, you can consider adding.

$0G : Focuses on the AI infrastructure track, covering both computing power and AI agents. The narrative remains intact, and there may be room for further speculation later. Pay close attention to the support level at 0.21. 0.24‑0.25 is the key breakout zone.

#ATH : Focuses on the AI computing power direction. The price action is highly elastic, but volatility is also very intense. It has been down for a long time in the earlier period, so it can be treated as a “small gamble” target.

As the AI main theme warms up again, the sector will likely rotate through different plays in sequence.

$MARSCOIN
The bottom shakeout is almost over. The current price offers a good value-to-price ratio. Around 0.104, you can set up multiple long positions. Set a stop-loss under the new low; as long as the stop-loss hasn’t been triggered, you can add positions on further dips. As long as price doesn’t hit the stop-loss level, hold for a period—there’s a chance to catch a doubled-up move.

$PENGU This price range also allows for positioning some spot holdings. On the fundamentals, it has the IP backing of Pudgy Penguins, and it also rides the tailwinds of the Abstract Chain ecosystem—making it a combination of the NFT culture segment and L2 narrative during a bull market. Compared with ordinary pure-emotion MEME coins, it has an extra layer of story logic.

Will the AI main theme come back again? You may want to focus on the US stocks!
There are reports that senior executives from technology giants such as Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Qualcomm, and others will attend the White House evening gala on September 24. Since the market is already trading AI compute power, this event is worth keeping track of.

Let’s talk about a few targets:

NVIDIA $NVDA : The core AI compute stock. The price is near the previous high, so chasing carries high risk. Only if it stabilizes around 228-236 will there be a chance to push toward above 250.

Broadcom $AVGO : AI custom chips. Wait for a pullback entry opportunity; watch the 355-360 range. If it breaks through 375, the target is 400-420.

Qualcomm $QCOM : The edge AI segment. It has risen a lot recently; don’t enter around 194. Be patient and wait for a retracement to 185-190. If it holds above 200, then look toward 210-220.

Microsoft #MSFT : OpenAI + cloud business, with solid AI monetization logic. Watch the pullback around 490-500; if it holds above 510, look for 530~550 on the upside.

Continue to observe through September 24, but don’t go “all in” just based on the news from the gala. If the sector as a whole breaks out on a surge in volume, that’s when a second round of the AI rally may be possible. In the crypto market, you can also keep an eye on AI-related coins.

$XPL Currently, the market value is $270 million. It has already broken through the bottom trading range, and there are clear signs of capital accumulation. From the bottom, there is an 8x potential upside; based on the current price, there is also an expected 5x potential.

Optimistic about $KITE
, at 0.12 this price level is indeed a very good value for money. Entering at this point is not easy to get stuck long-term, but it’s still unclear when it will start a rise. The AI sector’s market-story is also coming soon— you can get in the car now.

If funds flow out from BTC, established meme coins with sufficient liquidity and many exchanges listed are likely to be the first to attract capital.

#DOGE has US ETFs, making it relatively convenient for funds to enter and exit; #pepe is a leading Ethereum meme coin. As for the leading memes in the Solana and Base ecosystems, it’s still not clear.

$XLM also has several positive catalysts that haven’t been released yet. It has already broken out of the consolidation range and has formed an upward trend. Once it starts, the near-term upside could be quite significant.

$TAO has a high level of market recognition and is often called a benchmark asset within the AI sector.

Imitation-funds this round of rebound—the narrative that rises the most is the buyback story:

PUMP, #hype , with one-year revenues of 320 million and 430 million USD respectively—projects with real income use buybacks to give token holders a reason to stay. Most strong “shanzhai” (imitations) rely mainly on data and buybacks for support.

In the privacy sector, $ZEC leads the way, with NEAR following—going down the BTC privacy “meal substitute” narrative.

ARB, $UNI —eating the tokenized U.S.-stock dividend benefits. The Robinhood Chain rides on Arbitrum; in on-chain crypto-and-stocks, you can’t bypass Uniswap, and the ceiling is very high.

In DeFi, $PENDLE is decent, while #AAVE is slower but has a solid foundation; coins like #AKE that are purely market-maker plays are hard to understand.

The overall market is only just starting up. “Shanzhai” comes later than the big BTC. It’s also not too late to plan and roll out “shanzhai” after BTC has run for a year.

$ZAMA
After breaking above the previous high, it moved out of the channel into an upward trend.
This kind of chart pattern is very strong and there is a chance it will accelerate further to the upside—so its subsequent market performance can be expected.

Now the capital rotation path is very clear:
first trade $UNI , $AAVE , $LINK —these are coins with fairly good quality—then rotate to later-stage movers like FIL and SUI. Now it’s also trading #DOGE and #pepe , which are meme coins.
This is basically a sign that the rebound rally is nearing its end. At this point, the market has few opportunities that are still undervalued. Coins that didn’t rally before, have mediocre quality, and meme themes—capital will cycle through them one by one.
At this stage, the money-making atmosphere becomes especially intense: the chart looks extremely hot and excited, which can easily create an illusion—everything you buy goes up, and you can make money no matter when you enter. Many people can’t help but chase the price and increase their investment, only to end up trapped at the high.
The hotter and more frantic the market gets, the more you should be careful—often, the end of the rally isn’t far off.

The current trend has roughly reached the middle of the rebound phase. I believe the real main surge has not arrived yet.
As the price of $BNB moves upward, the BNC discount issue is expected to ease. In addition, as BNCB-related application scenarios keep expanding, the capital entering later will not only come from the U.S. stock market—there will also be a lot of on-chain funds participating. $BNB and $BNC are likely to create a mutually reinforcing effect, and the price may rise alternately.
As a side thought, let’s indulge in some speculation: $Gstock, as the first meme-type token to try to secure a seat on the board of a listed company, what market cap do you think would be relatively reasonable?

$ZEC The funds that entered in the early stage have already accumulated quite a bit of profit. At this stage, it’s more suitable to sell into strength and lock in gains. I don’t recommend adding more capital and pushing prices higher. The buying momentum is gradually weakening.

For the first round of correction, you can first look at the range of 1300–1350. This is the area where the previous funds were heavily concentrated and where support is more widely recognized by the market. Only if the price pulls back into this zone will it once again attract funds to consider buying back.

$TAO Weekly chart patterns are showing good performance, so you don't need to overthink short-term back-and-forth fluctuations. From a larger-cycle perspective, the outlook still leans optimistic. As the first reference level, you can look at the prior high of 750. From a spot/trading perspective, there's no need to be overly distracted by short-term ups and downs.
TAO belongs to the AI infrastructure sector. At the moment, the enthusiasm for this main AI theme hasn't fully cooled off. If, going forward, the AI sector continues to strengthen, TAO is worth keeping a close watch on.

#AVAX Yesterday’s trading volume exploded, and it has already reached the final acceleration phase. Even if there’s still a small push higher afterward, it’s only lingering heat. If you’re holding positions, you can gradually sell and lock in profits.
#UNI In the past few days, volume kept expanding and set a new high for this round of market. Although it was still rising yesterday, the trading volume has already shrunk. The market is basically topping out, and the high levels have started to become dull.
#fil Over these two days, volume has expanded, and long upper wicks have been forming frequently. This is a typical sign of a late-stage pump—there’s a “main force pulling up to distribute” feel to it.
$AAVE
The price has set a new high, but the daily trading volume is severely lagging. It’s a situation where the price looks strong, but volume can’t keep up—there isn’t much upside left.
$LINK
It’s still rising, but daily volume is clearly no longer working. Around 13.685 is very likely the high-range area of this cycle.
DOT still has a rebound, but daily trading volume keeps shrinking. There isn’t enough momentum to continue higher—it's just tagging along with the market’s late-stage action.
ENA has refreshed its high, but volume hasn’t expanded in sync. It can still trade sideways, but it’s no longer in a true sustained uptrend phase.
ADA hasn’t been able to release its volume; the rally lacks strength. It frequently closes as doji candles, which indicates a “catch-up rally” phase—general力度 is not strong.
ONDO is currently still seeing volume expansion on the daily chart. Its走势 is fairly similar to SUI, so there’s a chance it could come for another round of upside push.
$SUI
These are the key coins to focus on in this batch. Today it continued to expand volume, and it also broke through the prior high from August. It’s only missing the final push higher—most likely it will test $1. Only if it can truly hold above $1 will the last acceleration start.

SOL, XRP, BNB, and PEPE share a common point: the price can still hold up and even make new highs, but the daily trading volume is far lower than the main run-up on August 22.
To sum up: For the vast majority of altcoin rallies, the market has already moved into the late stage. If it’s still maintaining high volume and hasn’t finished the final leg yet, there are only a few left.

On the whole, there’s nothing wrong with it:
The market trend of major coins, $BNC moving from 5 to 6.8, and this short-term run of Arc has already played out. These summaries are all simple and clear.
As for the coin-and-stock narrative, you could say it’s one of the few options for altcoins at the moment.

#+ ：The current market value is only 1.97 million—what narrative is this coin, anyway? How did it suddenly pump so hard?
The narrative got going from a tweet by the founder of GME. It’s basically a newly surfaced GME-believer-style pump-and-dump—pretty interesting. Just treat it like a lottery game.

In the GMEECOIN tweet, the image really left an impression on me: a monkey with an open mouth and pointy fangs staring at you—kind of unsettling. And the background is that classic 3D panic-expression meme, perfectly recreating that original “spooky yet funny” flavor from the meme community.

$POL Here you can see spot orders are steadily accumulating. Now both the daily and weekly are running up to the resistance upper band, and it’s about to break above the zero line. The trading volume is also clearly increasing. Plus, BTC will most likely surge again soon, and high-quality coins will start to get restless. You can build your position in batches—prioritizing spot is best.

It’s an Indian public chain. Previously it was called MATIC. Germany and the United States have both issued RWA-related assets on this chain, and overall its strength ranks fourth in the industry. Initially, you can watch the price level around 0.16. Only after it holds and breaks above 0.16 will the market move accelerate. The target is 0.30. Once it starts running up, the momentum will not be any worse than Near.

Pullbacks are a chance to scale in in batches, so it’s worth keeping a close eye on it.