Tower Of David _Bvm First_

History shows Bitcoin’s rare down years have been followed by triple-digit rebounds, keeping 2026 firmly on traders’ watchlists.
Bitcoin
BTC
$90,965
ended 2025 slightly in the red with a -6.36% return after a strong start earlier in the year. While the annual loss appears modest, historical patterns suggest that down years have often preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin has historically averaged close to 100% gains in the year following a down year.

Long-term models project a substantial target near $300,000 if liquidity conditions turn supportive.

Bitcoin history hints at upside after rare red years
According to Jesse Myers, Bitcoin Strategy Head at Smarter Web Company, Bitcoin has shown a consistent tendency to recover sharply after negative annual closes. Data from the past decade highlighted four down years: 2014, 2018, 2022, and, most recently, 2025.
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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Investment 101
Bitcoin's performance after a down year. Source: Jesse Myers/ X
The years immediately following those drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156% respectively. Averaged together, these recoveries approach 95%, rounded to a 100% historical benchmark. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the repetition of this pattern continues to shape expectations for 2026.

Adding to the longer-term bullish case, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With noted that Bitcoin’s base-case valuation for 2026 sits between $200,000 and $300,000. With’s Bitcoin Decay Channel model uses quantile regression on historical price data to account for diminishing volatility across cycles.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Investment 101
Bitcoin Decay Channel. Source: Sminston With/X
With explained that the model’s oscillator remains near 20%, a level historically associated with early expansion phases. The projected 2026 target zone contrasts with Bitcoin’s stagnation near $88,000 at the end of 2025, which With attributed to delayed liquidity cycles rather than a definitive cycle peak.

Bitcoin 'not likely' to make new all-time high in 2026, says new research
Bitcoin long-term short signals from trading tools led analysis to conclude that no new BTC price all-time high would come this year.

BTC$91,261
faces a new “battle” for control before bulls trigger the next round of BTC price gains, but the long-term outlook is grim.
KEY POINTS:
Bitcoin short-term and long-term perspectives contrast as bears stay in control on high timeframes.A golden cross on the day chart does not cancel out short signals for the rest of the year.A new all-time high is “not likely” as a result.
$87,500 retest next stop for BTC price
In his latest X analysis on Wednesday, KEITH ALAN, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, forecast a retest of the 2026 yearly open.
Bitcoin price action is now caught in a tussle between buyers and sellers, but a return to $87,500 is “not a matter of if, but when,” Alan said.

“FireCharts shows a realtime battle unfolding in the $BTC order book,” he said.
“Bulls are trying to defend support at the 2026-01-05 Timescape Level, but Whales appear to be looking for a support test closer to the Yearly Open before a Golden Cross forms on the D chart to trigger the next rally.”

That cross involves the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The former crossing above the latter would indicate renewed strength on lower timeframes.
Before that, however, a support retest of the yearly open is on the wall.
“The battle for it is happening right now,” Alan said, adding:
“If it doesn't happen in the next 24 hours, I expect it will happen after the Death Cross forms on the Weekly chart, around the middle of the month.”

Bitcoin, Ether at “critical inflection points”
Zooming out, other findings had little inspiration for Bitcoin optimists on multimonth timeframes and further out.
Multiple “short” signals, trading tools showed, mean that BTC/USD is unlikely to make new all-time highs before 2027.
“A lot can happen in 6 months that could invalidate it, but at the moment, it’s easy to build a case for price to drop after this current pump loses momentum,” Alan wrote about the six-month chart.
The research held similar conclusions about largest altcoin Ether ETH$3,154, describing both coins as being “at critical inflection points.”
For a true turnaround, one-week relative strength index (RSI) values above 41/100, along with weekly closes above the 50-week SMA at $101,500, are needed.