陳夕觀察

Bezos bets $11.5 billion on taking on Musk! Amazon’s satellite acquisition gets approved, pulling even iPhone satellite communications into the mix!
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has approved Amazon subsidiary Amazon Leo’s $11.5 billion acquisition of Globalstar, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for expanding its satellite communications network and competing with Musk’s Starlink.

What is a funding rate? What do positive and negative funding rates mean?

📊 Does a positive funding rate mean you should always go short?

Funding is a fee periodically exchanged between long and short positions in perpetual contracts. It helps keep the contract price close to the spot price. Since perpetual contracts have no expiration date, this mechanism helps anchor their price.

First, remember who pays whom:

Positive funding rate: Longs pay shorts

Negative funding rate: Shorts pay longs

Formula:

Funding fee = Notional position × Funding rate

For a notional position of 10,000 USDT:

+0.01%: Longs pay 1 USDT

−0.02%: Shorts pay 2 USDT

A persistently rising positive funding rate typically reflects growing demand for long positions and higher holding costs; a deeply negative rate may indicate crowded short positions. Extreme rates are signals of costs and market positioning—they cannot predict price reversals on their own.

Analysis should also take price, basis, OI, trading volume, and liquidation data into account. Settlement intervals may vary across platforms and trading pairs, so make sure you’re comparing like with like before comparing rates or annualizing them.

⚠️ “Long spot + short perpetual” may earn positive funding, but it still carries trading fees, slippage, basis changes, borrowing costs, and liquidation risk. It is not risk-free arbitrage.

📅 Coming next

Thursday｜Web3 Encyclopedia｜Issue 004

“What Is an Oracle? Why Can’t Blockchains Read Real-World Data on Their Own?”

Intel suddenly bets on quantum computing! Reportedly set to acquire Israeli company for $2.3 billion—is the next computing-power race beginning?
Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reports that Intel plans to acquire Israeli quantum computing software company Classiq for about $2.3 billion, aiming to build a complete technology stack spanning quantum hardware and software.

They’re even destroying cold wallets? Keystone hacked, nearly 19,000 hardware wallets scrapped!
Hardware wallet maker Keystone announced that it would destroy 18,835 unsold hardware wallets and suspend shipments after its website was breached, exposing device authenticity verification keys and 25,964 buyer records.

BlackRock is eyeing stablecoins again! This time, it’s not the U.S. dollar but the yen: what is the world’s largest asset manager planning?
The Block reports that BlackRock, SBI Holdings, and Startale have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore connecting a tokenized money market fund with the yen stablecoin JPYSC.

Crypto ETF flows diverge: Bitcoin sees net inflows, Ethereum sees net outflows
According to Farside, on the U.S. trading day of October 26, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total net inflows of approximately $110.3 million, all of which went to IBIT. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $88.6 million, including approximately $104.7 million in outflows from ETHA. These are single-day fund flows, not trading volume over the past two hours.

🚨 Breaking! Controversial remarks about China by Mbappé spark backlash; Chinese brands terminate deals!

Fresh off scoring twice in El Clásico, Mbappé has suddenly found himself in a commercial endorsement crisis!

On October 26, during an interview about his favorite memes, he mentioned an image combining his face with an image of Mao Zedong and used politically charged wording that sparked controversy. After the video circulated, it quickly drew backlash from Chinese fans.

Several Chinese brands promptly took action:

🔴 Dongpeng Beverage: Announced on October 27 that it was ending all cooperation with Mbappé, effective immediately.

🔴 BUSHUILA: The Dongpeng-owned electrolyte drink brand also ended its partnership.

🔴 Mengniu Dairy: Reportedly removed related promotional content, while its partnership with Mbappé has come under scrutiny.

Dongpeng had only announced him as a brand ambassador in April this year; the partnership ran into trouble after just about six months.

The commercial value of a world-class football star comes not only from on-field performance, but also rests on public image and consumer trust. A controversy sparked by a single interview can put a high-value endorsement at risk of termination. The incident should be judged in the full context of the original interview, rather than based solely on online clips.

Do you think the brands were right to terminate the deals immediately, or was that an overreaction?

#Mbappé

What is free cash flow? Why is it harder to “dress up” than net income?

A company’s net income is growing, but its cash is shrinking?

Net income is recognized on an accrual basis, so revenue can be booked before cash is received. It is also affected by non-cash items such as depreciation, impairment, and provisions, as well as accounting estimates.

A common formula for free cash flow (FCF):

FCF = Cash flow from operating activities − Capital expenditures

It reflects the cash a company can freely use after maintaining operations and making necessary investments. This cash can be used for expansion, debt repayment, dividends, or share buybacks.

FCF is harder to manipulate, but not impossible. Companies can temporarily affect the figures by delaying payments, collecting cash early, factoring accounts receivable, or classifying capital expenditures differently.

In addition, FCF is often a non-GAAP metric, and definitions vary across companies. Always check how it is calculated and review the reconciliation; don’t compare figures across companies without adjustment.

Key things to check in your analysis:

- Whether operating cash flow has consistently kept pace with net income
- Whether accounts receivable is growing faster than revenue
- Whether inventory is building up abnormally
- Whether capital expenditures are for maintenance or growth
- Whether stock-based compensation is diluting shareholders

A good company must not only be profitable on paper, but also consistently turn profits into cash.

Coming next

Wednesday | Crypto Classroom | Episode 004
“What is a funding rate? What do positive and negative funding rates mean?”

SK hynix May Pay a $12 Billion Special Dividend! Are AI Chip Giants Starting to Reward Shareholders Big Time?
#SK海力士据报拟派特别股息
💰 16 trillion won, or about $12 billion!

On October 26, South Korean media reported that global memory chip giant SK hynix is considering paying shareholders a massive special dividend.

It could become another notable shareholder-return plan in the semiconductor industry.

Where would the money come from?

Interestingly, it would not come directly from profits on HBM chip sales, but from investment gains SK hynix made by selling its stake in Japanese memory chip company Kioxia.

Reports say the company may use about 80% of the proceeds for the special dividend.

However, SK hynix has responded that it is currently reviewing several options for shareholder returns and has not yet made a final decision. Specific plans are expected to be announced on October 28.

📊 My take: There are three signals worth watching here.

① AI memory giants are shifting from earnings growth to shareholder returns

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is a key component of AI computing infrastructure. As the AI industry grows, the market is paying closer attention not only to how much chipmakers earn, but also to whether those profits actually make their way back to investors.

② A huge dividend could lift market sentiment, but it doesn’t guarantee the stock will rise

A special dividend can attract investor attention, but a one-time payout does not mean earnings will continue to grow.

HBM demand, memory chip prices, the competitive landscape, and profitability will remain the real drivers of long-term valuation.

③ The semiconductor industry may be entering a new phase of capital allocation

In the past, the market focused more on capacity expansion, technology upgrades, and market share. Now, how companies balance capital spending, cash reserves, and shareholder returns has also become an important valuation factor.

🔥 In my view, October 28 matters more than today’s rumors.

Along with whether the special dividend goes ahead, investors should watch the third-quarter results, the outlook for the HBM business, and guidance on future capital spending.

If the dividend falls short of market expectations, investors may sell on the news, even if the payout is substantial.

One last question for everyone:

If an AI chip giant is sitting on a huge pile of cash, would you rather see it use the money to expand production—or distribute it directly to shareholders?

Who owns the 11 million BTC? A study finds that 55% of Bitcoin cannot be attributed to known holders
According to CoinDesk, the latest analysis by a research team at Galaxy Digital found that about 11.1 million BTC cannot be attributed to exchanges, funds, governments, or other identified entities, representing roughly 55% of all Bitcoin mined.

Monday｜Macro Finance Class｜Episode 004
“What Is an Inverted Yield Curve? Why Is It Often Seen as a Recession Warning?”

📉 Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than long-term yields. Why does this make markets nervous?

A yield curve connects the yields of bonds issued by the same borrower with different maturities:
Normal: long-term yields are higher than short-term yields
Flat: long- and short-term yields are close
Inverted: short-term yields are higher than long-term yields

Markets commonly watch two spreads:
10Y–2Y: a widely watched measure of the yield curve’s slope
10Y–3M: the term spread used in the New York Fed’s classic recession-probability model

Suppose the yields on 3-month, 2-year, and 10-year Treasuries are 4.8%, 4.5%, and 4.0%, respectively:
10Y–2Y = −0.5% = −50 bp
10Y–3M = −0.8% = −80 bp

Both spreads are below zero, meaning the curve is inverted.

An inversion usually reflects two things:
First, short-term policy rates are high, and financing and credit conditions are tight. Second, long-term yields are low, suggesting that markets may be pricing in slower future growth and inflation, as well as expected rate cuts.

Historical research shows that the yield curve’s slope has value as a leading indicator, but it is only a statistical warning signal and cannot accurately predict when a recession will occur.

⚠️ Factors such as the term premium, quantitative easing, and safe-haven demand can all affect the curve. Analysis should also consider employment, PMI, credit spreads, and corporate earnings. An inversion should not be treated as a direct buy or sell signal for U.S. stocks, gold, or Bitcoin.

📅 Coming next
Tuesday｜U.S. Stock Research Institute｜Episode 004
“What Is Free Cash Flow? Why Is It Harder to ‘Manipulate’ Than Net Income?”

Your own money, yet you can’t freely buy crypto? UK banks face more than 10,000 complaints as crypto transactions are repeatedly blocked
CoinDesk reported that data from crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto showed that UK users filed 10,092 complaints in 90 days about banks restricting cryptocurrency transactions, involving around 9,800 people.

France’s Interior Ministry reported that 1,314 people were arrested, 53 police officers were injured, and 24 stores were looted in protest-related incidents over the weekend. This adds officially confirmed figures on commercial losses and public order to earlier reports on the number of demonstrators.