加密老四

Here's another good news: after the total market value of stablecoins stopped growing for a month, it has started to grow again this week!

Previously, I mentioned the three key signals that indicate the end of a bull market:

1. Stagnation in the growth of stablecoins;

2. BTC price falling below the upper limit of the ASR fluctuation channel;

3. The super trend indicator's 12-day line showing a sell signal;

Last week, all these conditions were already met...

But miraculously, two of the signals were retracted this week!

Currently, only the ASR weekly channel indicates the end of the bull market, and it signaled this over two weeks ago...

The market is terrible, and the altcoins in hand have become a painful burden.

Cutting losses is painful, holding on is distressing.

But to be fair, the only coins that truly make you hesitate are those few that you never want to sell off, believing there’s still a chance to break even?

A simple classification of mainstream VC tokens has been made regarding their unlocking status. Some have nearly completed unlocking, while others are still far from it.

1. Mainstream tokens with nearly completed unlocking or only a small portion left.

The standard roughly unlocks >80% or has only 1 to 2 years left in the unlocking period.

1. $INJ (Injective)

Unlocking progress: ≈100%, the unlocking period has been completed.

2. $LDO (Lido)

Circulation ≈89%, significant historical unlocks on DropsTab concentrated around 2024, currently mainly DAO self-grants and incentives, with no new long-term linear VC unlocks.

3. $IMX (Immutable)

Unlocking progress ≈89%, the official calendar indicates there is about 1 month left for unlocking, after which it will mainly be ecological incentives.

4. $TIA (Celestia)

Circulation ≈84.5%, research and team reserves have about 300–700 days of release left, already in the final stage, with a relatively smooth unlocking pace.

5. $AXL (Axelar) unlocking progress ≈65.7%, remaining unlocking time is about 400 days, with more than a year left to finish unlocking, mainly depends on the protocol and inflation.

6. $LINK (Chainlink)

The linear unlocking of the team custody wallet ended in early 2025, now the locked amount is 0, about 70% is in circulation, the rest is for the team and reserves, with no new long-term mandatory release curve.

7. $Render (Render)

Circulation ≈80.5%, most of the early batches of locked amounts have been completed, leading up to 2031 mainly involves protocol inflation.

2. Mainstream tokens with unlocking still far from completion can basically be ignored.

1. $WLD (Worldcoin)

Unlocked ~41%, remaining unlocking time >4600 days, one of the longest unlocking periods in the entire market.

2. $APT (Aptos)

Investors/team 10-year linear release, still in the first half, with continuous unlocking for many years to come.

3. $SUI (Sui)

Unlocked about 34%, the main linear release has about 1600 days left, meanwhile, large positions like SUI Reserve will only be fully released much later, generally a standard long-cycle VC token.

4. $SEI

Unlocking progress 50%, overall release extends to 2031, teams and investors will unlock linearly from 2028–2031, with a significant unlock around 2026.

5. $ONDO

Unlocking progress about 34%, remaining 1100 days; the white paper specifies that multiple rounds of investor/team reserves will unlock linearly until 2029, a typical long-term RWA VC token.

Why did the US stock market plummet? Let's take a look at Goldman Sachs' interpretation.

Good news turned bad, short-term risks still loom.

On Thursday, the US stock market opened high but then plunged. Nvidia had good news, and the strong non-farm data was met with selling, resulting in a market cap loss of over 2 trillion, while Bitcoin fell below 90,000.

Goldman Sachs believes the market has entered a "profit and loss protection mode," with Nvidia's good news acting as a trigger for the sell-off.

The main reasons for the crash include these key factors: Nvidia's good news has been fully priced in, market liquidity is extremely poor, and this Friday sees the largest options expiration in history, amplifying volatility.

Conclusion: Systematic sell-off under the resonance of technology + sentiment + liquidity, with high short-term risks.

In the past two weeks, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced net outflows, indicating that retail investors are in a panic sell-off. Only long-term holders like El Salvador and MicroStrategy are maintaining their positions. If they can survive the next round of the bear market, MicroStrategy's market value should be able to break into the global top ten.

The end of the month is here. How much lower can it drop?
Currently, Bitcoin has tested near the monthly MA20, which is a strong support.
Additionally, the end of the month requires closing the monthly line. It should stop dropping and start rebounding for the monthly line.
Ethereum synchronizes with Bitcoin.
So, in the short term, it is possible to buy the dip for a rebound.
I believe there is still a chance for a second peak. Looking back at past bull markets, there is often a second peak.
And with the arrival of the altcoin season, the second peak won't last too long. A few months' time.
Remember to run away during the second peak.

Human nature is indeed hard to overcome.
When it was 120,000, I thought I could buy at 100,000, and 80,000 was the bottom.
When it really reached 80,000, I thought I could buy at 70,000, and at worst it would drop to 50,000.

I somewhat doubt that when it really reaches 70,000, I might think about buying at 40,000 instead.

The good news is that several officials from the Federal Reserve collectively signaled a dovish stance yesterday, leading the market to bet that interest rates will continue to drop in December, marking a halt to this wave of panic.

Currently, the Polymarket prediction for rate cuts stands at 66%, while CME Group shows 71%.

The bad news is that MSCI, one of the largest stock indices in the world, plans to remove Bitcoin MicroStrategy and several others from its index.

In the past, a significant amount of capital entered various MicroStrategy companies through stock indices like those under MSCI, so Bitcoin MicroStrategy has been hoping to be included in the S&P 500, which would bring in more index funds.

Currently, JPMorgan on Wall Street predicts that once it is confirmed that MicroStrategy is removed, the related capital outflow could amount to $2.8 billion, and if other exchanges and index issuers follow suit, the total outflow could reach $11.6 billion.

This round of market activity is being driven by ETFs and listed MicroStrategy companies. It is uncertain whether they will sell their coins in the future, but it is certain that the inflow of funds will stop, which means that MicroStrategy will face a halt in fundraising and will be unable to purchase more cryptocurrencies.

If cryptocurrencies continue to decline, the upcoming financial reports for these companies will not look good, and investors will be more cautious.

In the past 5 years, MicroStrategy has purchased over 640,000 bitcoins, with the holding value of BTC increasing from 1.9 million to hundreds of billions. The company's total wealth has also exceeded 100 billion, making it one of the fastest-growing publicly traded companies in the United States. Its bitcoin strategy is long-term, and even with the arrival of a bear market, it is unlikely to sell; instead, it will continue to buy and hold.

After more than a month of market baptism, the market sentiment has finally shifted from an overall bullish perspective to an overall bearish one. When it should have been bearish, it was bullish, and now that most people are starting to turn bearish, it’s almost time to buy the dip. Once there is another drop and some grinding, the opportunity will come. I plan to buy a wave of long positions between 75000 and 78000 to catch a rebound, as the price of $BTC is around 74000, which has been a buying point for many institutions and large players since Trump took office. Even if it’s not a reversal, taking a small rebound in a ranging market is likely to be fine.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 over the last 30 days (October 21, 2025 - November 20, 2025) has reached its highest level since 2022, with a 30-day rolling correlation coefficient as high as 0.80, almost saying it is 'breathing the same air and sharing the same destiny.'
In the past month: BTC has retreated from a high of $126,000 and is currently fluctuating in the range of $86,000 - $92,000, with a maximum decline of nearly -28%; the Nasdaq 100 has dropped about -8% during the same period (tech stocks collectively adjusted), but Bitcoin's decline is 2-3 times that, perfectly illustrating what it means to be a 'high Beta asset.'
What’s even more painful is the asymmetry: when the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin falls even harder; when the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin does not follow suit comfortably. This is exactly the same as the bear market in 2022— the market has completely regarded BTC as 'the risk asset among risk assets,' rather than some 'digital gold.'
Why is the correlation suddenly so high?
1. Institutional funds are highly overlapping: the same batch of hedge funds, tech ETFs, and family offices hold FAANG/NVIDIA and Bitcoin/MicroStrategy at the same time;
2. Expectations of tightening macro liquidity (the Federal Reserve is very likely to only cut 25bp or even pause in December) have hit all overvalued assets together;
3. Profit-taking wave: the October Trump trade pushed BTC and tech stocks to the sky, and in November, they both retreated together.
Current conclusions:

• Short-term: As long as the Nasdaq does not stabilize, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to run independently; the range of $80,000 - $85,000 is likely to be tested again;
• Medium-term: Once the Nasdaq restarts its rise (the AI sector reignites), Bitcoin will follow with a leverage of 1.5-2 times, showing great elasticity;

• The correlation of 0.80 is already at a historical extreme, and there is little room for further significant increases; it is likely to gradually decline over the next 1-3 months (historical pattern).

In summary: Today's Bitcoin is like a 'magnifying glass of leverage' for the Nasdaq 100. If you are bullish on tech stocks, hold or bottom fish BTC boldly; if you are bearish on tech stocks, reduce BTC holdings first for safety.
In the era of risk assets, there are really no islands.

Most of the tracks have lay flat, only privacy coins stand tall in the C position, making 'privacy' something that can make institutions and regulators nod in agreement.
ZEC not only broke the previous high in price but also lifted the entire privacy track. Don't be fooled by the market fear index hitting the roof; DASH is still being propped up by buying pressure, with a monthly increase of 69%. The long-short ratio is also quite impressive. Although ZEN dropped 12% on the daily chart, it remains strong on the weekly and monthly charts. PIVX is even more noteworthy, with a weekly increase of 9.6% and a monthly increase of 55%, and the long-short ratio is close to 2:1, indicating that everyone is just waiting inside.