麦子-Mace

Mai Zi accurately predicted today's crash on the 29th of last month, and has long stated that we have entered a bear market (see the pinned article), but unfortunately, the trapped investors do not like this viewpoint. Below is a supplement to the prediction principle:

The key rhythm after Bitcoin's sharp decline: rebound, pullback, second bottom! Then rebound!

After the market peaks, there is often a rapid drop first, but in the short term (within 2 weeks), it usually will not break down directly. This period of fluctuation generally follows the script of 'natural rebound - second bottom - pullback to the high point', after which a new round of sharp decline will begin.

Looking back at history:

At the end of the bull market in 2021, the rebound peaked on the 3rd day after the sharp decline, and the pullback was slightly higher on the 23rd day, then continued to drop;

In March 2024, there was a rebound on the 7th day, and the pullback was higher on the 19th day, after which a new round of decline ensued;

In February 2025, there was a rebound on the 4th day, and the pullback was lower on the 18th day, indicating that the downward trend was not over.

This round of the market:

The rebound reached 116000 on the 3rd day, and the pullback was 114000 on the 11th day (1.69% lower than the rebound high), with both time and space appearing hesitant.

After the interest rate cut, the market may take advantage of it for another surge, with the pullback high likely in the range of 114700-117200 (retracement of 0.5-0.618), (already realized 11.65) time within a week (around the 14th day).

If 116400 becomes a temporary high point (taking 17 days, only 0.34% higher than the previous high), then the subsequent adjustment pressure will increase.

Key time point: The 14th day after the sharp decline (two full weeks) is the focus of the bulls and bears contest, while the real bottom may be around the 4th of this month (already realized), with key support around 97000 to stop the decline. (Already reached 98)

In the short term, there may be a rebound, but the overall trend has not changed; grasp the rhythm and respond cautiously! The cycle is the most accurate; the economic cycle is something that no human effort can change! Follow Mai Zi, and do not be confused at critical moments! #币安合约实盘 #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH $SOL

"Individuals can now withdraw cash over 50,000 yuan without registration!" — This rigid regulation, which once attracted widespread attention, has officially become history. Yesterday, three departments jointly issued new regulations, marking a significant shift in the supervision of personal cash withdrawals.

So, is the regulation being relaxed? Not exactly. The core of the new regulations is a shift from a one-size-fits-all approach to a risk-based, precise supervision. Banks no longer need to question every depositor but must establish a more sensitive 'nose': what should be done when the system identifies high-risk transactions?

This is precisely the focus going forward. The new regulations require financial institutions to initiate 'enhanced investigations' at this time to gain a deeper understanding of the sources and uses of funds. This move aims to direct risk control resources accurately towards real risk points, thereby ensuring financial safety while providing greater convenience for the vast majority of law-abiding citizens.

#加密市场反弹 #香港稳定币新规 $ETH $SOL

Circle has just minted 500 million USDC, and since the market adjustment on October 11, the two major stablecoin giants, Tether and Circle, have collectively issued up to 18.25 billion US dollars in stablecoins - theoretically, such a massive influx of funds is often seen as a strong signal that the market is about to rally. However, strangely, the cryptocurrency prices have not shown any improvement despite this. Where exactly have so many newly minted USDC gone? Are they being quietly accumulated by institutions, or are they flowing into new sectors that have yet to explode? Is the main force secretly laying out plans, or is the capital still on the sidelines waiting? Which sector will ignite the next round of market activity? The influx of huge amounts of stablecoins has not driven up prices; what market logic is hidden behind this? Perhaps all of this is just the calm before the storm. $SOL $ETH $XRP #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

The scene in Washington is quite lively, with a Democratic report pointing directly at the Trump family for profiting billions through a crypto project. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains stubborn, climbing back to 92,000 from a deep pit, seemingly trying to push towards 100,000 dollars. In my opinion, political mudslinging is one thing, but the market must have its own rhythm. I judge that this wave of daily rebounds has not yet finished and is likely to reach around 96,000 to 98,000.

After all, this wave of weekly declines that started from 126,000 has not ended at all. So friends who bought the dip earlier and want to trade can reduce their positions around 97,000, with a target for another buy at around 80,000, with a limit of 74. The basis for this is still the chart I posted; the profit potential of this wave is quite appealing. As for the true bottom, the time window is expected around December 20. Looking back, after the big options expiration days in October and November, a daily bottom was established, and this time around December 19 could likely be the weekly bottom we have been waiting for. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is patience, and we shall wait and see. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

【Black Swan Warning】S&P has labeled USDT as "high risk"! 5.6% of Bitcoin collateral is running bare, 24% of assets are hiding deadly traps, and the next black swan has already spread its wings. While everyone is watching Bitcoin's ups and downs, the real powder keg is hiding in the last place it should be — USDT, with a daily trading volume exceeding $60 billion, is sitting on the brink of an imminent eruption. Three death signals are simultaneously lighting up: collateral buffer has been breached, high-risk assets are surging, and information disclosure is opaque. Any one of these is enough to trigger a chain reaction of thunderstorms. Tether CEO's crazy declaration of "proud of your hatred" resembles the last revelry of executives before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Remember, on the eve of LUNA's crash, countless people shouted, "algorithmic stablecoins cannot collapse", and this time the danger signals are ten times stronger - because USDT is tied to the veins of the entire crypto world. When you realize the deep end of the swimming pool has no bottom, the retreat whistle has actually been blown long ago. $SOL $ETH $XRP #加密市场反弹

[Breaking] Grayscale's Zcash Trust has just submitted an S-3 registration statement to the SEC, with file number 333-291800 prominently displayed! This financial giant from Stanford, Connecticut has officially brought privacy coins into the realm of compliance, and the date November 26, 2025 is destined to be recorded in the history of cryptocurrency. As traditional financial institutions begin to 'suit up' for privacy coins, and every transaction gains legal status within the SEC's regulatory framework, we are witnessing a silent financial revolution. This is not only a milestone for $ZEC but also a breakthrough moment for the entire privacy sector—the doors to institutional funds are about to open for privacy assets like Monero and Dash. Regulation and privacy are not inherently opposed; Grayscale has demonstrated through this 23-page registration document that the path to compliance can be so clear. The capital flow on Wall Street is changing direction, and privacy technology, which once wandered in the gray area, is about to become a compliant asset for institutional investors. This financial experiment, which began on the dark web, is now completing its coming-of-age ceremony in New York's skyscrapers. $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

This Friday at 4 PM, 150,000 Bitcoin options will expire on the Deribit exchange—$13.19 billion worth of massive chips will soon determine the outcome, and the market is quietly brewing a storm. Everyone is watching the critical point of $101,000, which is a battleground for both bulls and bears. Once breached, market sentiment will shift dramatically. Even more intriguing is the put/call ratio of 0.61, which suggests that the majority of investors are betting on an increase, but such excessive uniformity in optimism could itself become a risk. Meanwhile, the Ethereum options' max pain point of $3,400 also holds secrets; a put/call ratio of 0.50 shows stronger bullish expectations than Bitcoin, and this high degree of consensus in optimism often signals the possibility of a reversal. Historical experience indicates that such a large-scale options expiration often triggers prices to gravitate towards the max pain point, amplifying market volatility before and after settlement—what you see as calm now may just be the calm before the storm. Smart money has already started to position itself; will you choose to follow the crowd in blind optimism, or make independent judgments to seize opportunities? This Friday is destined to become an unforgettable lesson for many traders. $ETH #加密市场反弹 $SOL $BNB #比特币波动性

When the market crashes, and someone tells you to buy the dip, especially when that person is named Trump, you really should be cautious. On November 24, the crypto market faced a bloodbath, yet Eric Trump openly stated that this is a fantastic buying opportunity—does this sound like an insider tip? Let's first take a look at their family's investment performance over the past year: from September until now, the family’s assets have shrunk by $1 billion, they bought Bitcoin at a high price, mining stocks have halved, and altcoins have plummeted to an unbearable extent. With such losses, calling for purchases is not simple.

Ordinary people make money trading coins by relying on price differences, but big players actually benefit from regulatory advantages. For example, in the WLFI project, the Trump family secured $500 million in profits early in the primary market, and by the time the tokens were listed for trading, the risks had already been passed on to the retail investors. Do you think they are losing? The balance sheet does look bad, but the cash they secured in advance is intact.

Looking back at their several public statements this year, a clear pattern emerges: when discussing Bitcoin and the overall market trends, their judgments are often accurate, but once they specifically recommend a certain token, it is almost always a prelude to harvesting. The statements made during this recent crash are particularly intriguing—family holdings are deeply trapped, project tokens face unlocking, and related stocks continue to be under pressure; compared to genuine advice, this looks more like a carefully orchestrated self-rescue operation aimed at calling for liquidity to enter and take over.

The most paradoxical rule in the crypto world is that some people are both the game makers and the players. In the face of this “referee-cum-athlete” role, we need to learn to treat them differently: their analysis of industry trends may be worth considering, but once they promote specific assets, be sure to keep a tight grip on your wallet. Don’t let your principal become someone else’s exit strategy.

After all, when a person who has lost $1 billion tells you to buy the dip, do you think they are more concerned about your returns or their own positions? $ETH #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 $WLFI

Just pardoned and sued again! CZ is involved in a shocking major case; how deep is the water behind it?

A shocking reversal! Just pardoned and regained freedom by former U.S. President Donald Trump, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) hasn't even warmed his seat before being sued again!

This time it is not the U.S. government, but over 300 family members of victims from the Hamas attack. They filed a lawsuit, directly putting CZ and Binance in the defendant's seat, making astonishing accusations: Binance allegedly provided tens of millions of dollars in cryptocurrency funding channels to organizations like Hamas!

The lawsuit is 284 pages long, with chilling details: it claims that after the attack on October 7 last year, over 50 million dollars flowed through Binance to terrorist organizations; it even traces back to transactions related to Binance amounting to a staggering 1 billion dollars between 2017 and 2023!

All of this happened right under CZ's nose. The plaintiff's lawyer pointed out the original sin of Binance's business model—deliberately designed loopholes that facilitate the flow of dirty money.

It should be noted that CZ only pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering violations a few months ago, and Binance paid a hefty fine of 4.3 billion dollars; he has just completed his prison sentence. Now, with the warmth of the pardon still lingering, another deep-water bomb has detonated.

The key question remains unresolved: is this merely a civil claim, or the prelude to a new round of criminal accountability? Trump's pardon can keep him innocent of criminal charges, but it cannot stop the immense waves from the public.

How should CZ repay this "debt"? Is the foundation of the Binance empire shaking? The storm may have just begun. $BNB $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

Market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have skyrocketed, with the probability jumping from 30% to 80%! Weak employment data and dovish statements from Fed officials indicate that the easing cycle is about to begin. The liquidity floodgates will open, which is undoubtedly a significant benefit for the cryptocurrency sector. Historical experience shows that once rate cut expectations materialize, abundant liquidity will first flow into high-risk assets like Bitcoin, and a new round of rising prices may be imminent. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

Breaking! Jackie Chan stars in CZ, bringing the ups and downs of crypto tycoons to the big screen! If it's true, the movie 'Crypto Tycoon' will undoubtedly be a key step in bringing cryptocurrency into mainstream culture, attracting global attention and heated discussions. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场回调

You may dislike Japan, but its financial protection is truly commendable!

The Financial Services Agency of Japan has taken strong measures, requiring all cryptocurrency platforms to establish "responsibility reserves" specifically for compensating users for losses caused by platform vulnerabilities or shutdowns. In simple terms, it provides a strong insurance for investors' funds.

What’s brilliant about this policy? It directly brings the "black box operations" and "price manipulation issues" (10.11) of exchanges into the light. Consider the previous cases where certain platforms would abruptly disconnect or had mysterious liquidation cases; under this set of rules in Japan, such deceiving practices will become extremely rare—because once an issue arises, the trading profits must first be compensated to clients using their own reserves.

You may not like Japan, but in terms of financial consumer protection, they are indeed ahead of the world. They treat cryptocurrency as a legitimate financial industry rather than an unregulated area. When the market has baseline rules, genuine innovation and competition can truly begin. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the entire industry! $ETH $SOL $XRP #加密市场回调 #比特币波动性

A major turning point is coming! When the Federal Reserve's "dovish" tone meets the "technological revolution" of cryptocurrencies, what kind of storm will the market face? Federal Reserve Chair Daly has rarely signaled a rate cut, stating that her greatest concern is not inflation rebound, but the potential collapse risk in the job market, a type of "non-linear change" that may catch the central bank off guard. In contrast, the price pressure brought by tariffs is relatively mild, paving the way for a policy shift next month. Although Daly does not have a vote this year, her stance is significant as one of the few key figures who publicly opposes Powell, and it is likely to have a decisive influence at the December meeting, bridging the huge divide within on the issue of "rate cut or pause." Coincidentally, the Ethereum network is also set to complete a significant upgrade in early December, unexpectedly aligning these two major events in time and space. Once the Federal Reserve truly opens the rate cut floodgates, global liquidity expectations will be completely reversed, and the Ethereum upgrade will inject a strong boost into the industry from a technical perspective. The combination of loose monetary policy and the evolution of core public chains may jointly push the market into a brand new phase, and this moment might just be the most critical strategic layout opportunity before the storm arrives. $ETH $XRP $SOL #加密市场回调 #香港稳定币新规

Are altcoins about to explode? What do you brothers think, do you still have confidence? $ETH $SOL $BNB #加密市场观察