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Bitcoin Price Shows Cautious Balance and Potential for Retest – Analysis for October 7, 2025

Bitcoin has recently been trading within a strong range, attempting to break the $124,000 level. However, despite the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, the expected bullish momentum has not fully materialized. Current market sentiment and technical indicators suggest that the price could move downward at any time, so investors should remain cautious.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, fluctuating between $118,000 and $126,000. On October 2, the price opened at $118,594 and closed at $124,658 on October 6 — reflecting an overall positive trend. The RSI has increased from 76 to 84, indicating overbought conditions, while the MFI (Money Flow Index) has risen from 49 to 68, confirming buying pressure. Nevertheless, the Fear and Greed Index is hovering between 64 and 74, showing moderately greedy sentiment but not at an extreme level. This suggests that short-term price correction remains possible.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the price has reached near the upper band, indicating that the market is becoming overextended and that a potential reversal may occur soon. The Hull Moving Averages (HMA) for 7 and 14 days continue to rise, with the price closing above them — a sign of strong short-term momentum. The 21-day and 30-day moving averages are also turning upward, signaling medium-term bullishness. Support levels are found at $117,758, $115,188, and $112,872, serving as key defensive zones in case of a price decline. On the other hand, the $125,000 level acts as a psychological resistance that needs to be broken for further upside.

From a macro perspective, the Fed’s rate cuts and uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown have provided some support for Bitcoin, as investors seek alternative assets outside traditional markets. Additionally, growing institutional interest and potential increases in Bitcoin ETF inflows strengthen the long-term bullish outlook. However, fraud and security concerns within the crypto sector — such as the recent case involving a former Singapore naval captain — could dent investor confidence and create short-term pressure.

The MACD remains in the positive zone, indicating ongoing buying momentum. Yet, the overbought RSI and proximity to the upper Bollinger Band suggest caution. In terms of volume, trading activity increased on October 5, contributing to the price rally, while low volume on October 4 limited upward movement. Open interest has risen by 2.98%, showing growing market participation, but also signaling potential for volatility. The funding rate is slightly positive, confirming bullish sentiment, though the absence of extreme greed means that a sudden pullback remains a risk.

Overall, Bitcoin’s current situation reflects a delicate equilibrium where long-term fundamentals remain strong, but short-term caution is advised. The psychological resistance and overbought conditions at current levels indicate a possible retracement, especially if negative news or broader financial uncertainty emerges. Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to break above $125,000, it could trigger a new bullish phase, supported by institutional inflows and ETF momentum. Investors should closely monitor both technical and fundamental factors and adopt a balanced strategy to navigate potential market volatility.
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