顿悟百分之五十九

$pippin
记录二十二：PIPPINUSDT (20251204 15:39-23:49)
开仓价   止损价     仓位（U） 方向 止损金额（U）
0.19995   0.23       5000       空   720
 
 

 
介入理由：
1、同上上一单，做空pippin不需要理由，只需要在合适的位置
2、按照我自己画的下跌的趋势线来看，这里突破后又掉回来了
 
 
过程：
这里重仓且高止损了，不符合之前制定的原则，但是这个币最近已经快成我的心魔了，上一个项目3千U本金，本来盈利2倍了，就是因为空它，连续止损了8单，损了3500U,导致我心态崩了，关闭项目。所以还是冲动了。这个“嗔”字，真不容易拿捏。
原来有机会在0.183附近平仓的，有点不甘心，结果一等就是8个小时，资金费付了150U,终于等到了平仓的机会，本来想留点在0.155走的，但是11点那根插底的针让我放弃了这点贪欲，同时资金费也太贵了，惹不起，躲躲吧。
 
分析：这单介入没有太大的问题，但是这个币现在确实不宜再去做短空了，一是插针太深了，止损小了容易被扫，大了容易爆仓; 二是资金费太高了，1小时一次，短空的钱还不够付资费的，收益比太低了。当然从趋势上看，我认为差不多也确实快到位了，后面最多再向上冲一冲就该跳水了，有长线空的倒是可以干了
结果：盈利474-150（U）资费太疼了

$LSK

Record Twenty-One: LSKUSDT (20251204 8:41-15:47)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.21594 0.2075 6000 Long 250



Reason for Intervention:
1. There are signs of a breakout rebound on the 15-minute level
2. The recent new low is not far away, hoping for a rebound, and the amount needed for a stop loss is relatively small
3. I was a bit unwilling to accept the previous losses

Process:
Originally had an order for 3000U, but then saw that the upward momentum was quite strong, so I followed up with another order for 3000U. As a result, there was an upward spike, but fortunately, it quickly pulled back up.
Then I continuously placed orders to close positions at 0.2254, 0.2301, and 0.2401, eventually closing all positions at 0.2274

Analysis: Looking back at this trade, there isn’t any particularly reliable reason; I can only say I was lucky. Yesterday, it happened to rebound to a relatively high position. The good part is that I wasn’t overly greedy and reduced positions along the way to lock in most of the profits.
Result: Profit 360 (U)

$PIPPIN
Record Twenty: PIPPINUSDT (20251204 13:39-15:38)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price     Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.19775  0.205    2000       Short   150
 
 
 
Reason for Intervention:
1. There is no need for a reason to short pippin, just need to be at the right position
2. According to the downtrend line, this needle is also considered close
3. Pippin's trend is no longer that strong, neither the 3rd nor 4th could break the high of the 2nd, and the 4-hour chart has been declining continuously
 
Process:
Originally had an order for 2000U, but the first time only over 800U was executed, felt not very good, so I closed it at 0.19444, unfortunately forgot to cancel the remaining more than a thousand U order, later around two o'clock it was executed again, and ended up being stopped out at three-thirty.
 
Analysis: This order actually doesn't seem to have much of a problem now, the 4-hour downtrend, there was an upward spike, small position, and the risk is not big, and there were also opportunities for profit in between, but unfortunately I forgot that half of the order was not canceled, a small loss is also acceptable.
Result: Loss of 40 (U)

Record Sixteen-Nineteen: (20251203 )
BTCUSDT (20251203 22:08-22:58) Profit: 240U
ZECUSDT (20251203 23:25-23:18) Profit: 22U
ETHUSDT (20251203 23:24-23:34) Loss: 268U
ETHUSDT (20251203 23:37-00:17) Profit: 277U

Stage Summary: (20251202 - 20251203)
After 15 trades, I opened four more, purely impulsive, three wins and one loss, probably making about 200U. The reason I won't summarize individually is that there's really not much to say. I could come up with a ton of reasons for each trade, but they don't really explain the issues.
Over the course of two days, I made a profit of 1,000U, but it seems like I haven't found any clues. Aside from stop losses and the number of trades, I haven't executed well in other aspects. On the surface, the main issues are as follows:
1. Trend issues: The trades over the past two days have fluctuated between long and short, completely a chaotic battle at the 15-minute level. Opening trades based on feelings leads to situations where the trades feel like hot yams, where I don't dare to hold or wait. So the profit from positions over these two days has only been around 400 to 500U at most.
2. Positioning issues: Due to large positions, there have been problems with stop losses being too small and getting swept. Currently, three trades have been passively stopped out, resulting in a loss of about 400 to 500U, which is quite unfortunate.
3. Intervention issues: Half of the 19 trades were due to hasty intervention, leading to passive narrowing of stop losses.
4. Exit issues: Several trades turned profitable but ended up losing, and there were also several where I exited too hastily, missing out on subsequent profits. For the first three problems, I believe I've recognized them, which means I can address them. It's just a matter of controlling the number of open trades and patiently waiting for opportunities. Better to miss out than to make mistakes. However, regarding the exit issue, I currently have no good solutions. I can only keep learning, summarizing, and trying again. Of course, this isn't just a technical issue; on a psychological level, I need to balance greed and fear well.

In summary, the subsequent execution strategy is:
1. Slow down
Don't rush to open trades; wait a bit, slow down, and move in the direction of the trend. I must wait for right-side opportunities to act. For example, if the overall trend is still a rebound, wouldn't it be steadier to go long after a downward spike?
2. Smaller
Calculate thoroughly, first lock in the amount and price of the stop loss, then calculate the number of open positions accordingly. It has been proven that "greed" does not help you earn more money; instead, it often causes you to miss many opportunities.
3. Steady first, then aggressive
Stability requires locking in principal and profits at the right positions, while aggression should be based on the premise of stability, using remaining profits to pursue bigger opportunities.

Record Fifteen: Failed ZECUSDT (20251203 19:56-23:18)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (Units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
336.55 328 20 Long 180
 
Reason for Intervention:
1. ZEC just quickly surged to 352.25 and then quickly dropped to 318.46, the up and down spikes indicate a possible change in trend.
2. Quickly rebounding from 318 to around 338, it may continue to break through short-term resistance. Since the rebound from 300 points over the past half day, it has been blocked around 338-341.
3. Using a large position with a small stop loss, I’m taking a chance it can push up because I judge the real resistance should be around 375-380.
4. The recent rise of ZEC is actually different from typical altcoins, it has risen nearly 20 times from the end of September to the end of November, with many participants and large amounts of capital involved. It's not the kind that just spikes and runs away, so I don't think it should drop all the way down; perhaps it can rebound again.
 
Process:
Originally set an order at 333.55, but unfortunately, I was afraid of missing out like the previous drop, so I set it high at 336.55. Currently in a floating loss, I hope this time it won’t hit me again. That 11th order was frustrating; just 4 bucks short, it got stopped out, which is annoying.
To be honest, this stop loss setting is indeed a bit small; mainly, I’m concerned about money. I need to consider finding a balance because I currently have less than 3,000 U, and each stop loss is set around 200. Once the funds increase, I can consider enlarging a bit or increasing the position.
There was a breakout to 346, but it still couldn’t hold, subsequently adjusting down, and stopped out at the position of 333.44, later hitting 327 before turning back. So this order cannot be considered a mistake because I set the stop loss at 328 myself; exiting was also a choice.
Analysis: The key for this order is still the position. If the position were small, I could have completely placed the stop loss around 305-310, which would eliminate subsequent issues and allow me to wait for a breakout with peace of mind, closing near 375. Of course, there is also a crucial point that this space itself is too small; it actually falls within the range of optional. A 20-point stop loss, a 40-point take profit, starting with a 10-point may be more appropriate.
Result: Loss of 65 (U)

记录七：失败LSKUSDT (20251203 07:35-22：04)
开仓价 止损价 仓位（U） 方向 止损金额（U）
0.2252 0.21 2000 空 135
介入理由：
1、日线级别上，当前价格仍高于五日线，4小时线也在5日线上方，表明当前走势比较强势
2、1小时费率，之前费率低于千一时，容易触发反弹
3、走势近几日未跟随BTC,显示有庄存在
4、之前每次前高都会触碰到180日均线，这次高点离的还很远，赌一赌后面还有机会向上摸一下那条线
5、前一日大跌却未放量
过程：成交后继续向下，目前最低位是0.2194后反弹到0.2217，继续观察，大饼二饼都出现了明显的反弹，同时也到了之前反弹的高点，需要谨慎，后续因为有降息的利好，当前可以考虑突破做多
分析：这单的问题是进场时机差，其实也没什么好说的，进这单就是赌它还会不会再起来，事实证明赌错了。
结果：亏损135（U）

$ZEC
I am really impressed by this thing, unable to stand 340, closing position and admitting defeat

$BTC Therefore, strictly controlling the number of positions is absolutely a particularly important matter. If extreme market conditions occur and there are too many positions, it can lead to a chain of stop losses or even a chain of liquidations, which is even more terrifying than holding a single position.

$BTC 发生了什么，怎么突然就崩了？

Is it a good choice to chase a big pancake at this location $BTC ? 93066 more, stop loss 92600? Unfortunately, I currently have three positions and should not open more.

Record Thirteen: Partial Success BTCUSDT (20251203 18:46-20:01)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (Units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
92922.1 93200 0.5 Short 200

Reason for Involvement:
1. After Bitcoin broke through the high point of November 28 in the afternoon, it did not surge too high, but instead quickly retraced, which can be considered as failing to stabilize the breakthrough; therefore, the subsequent movement can only be a pullback for accumulation.
2. During the upward breakthrough, the price rose, but the hour-level MACD bars continued to shorten, indicating divergence.
3. It has been consolidating around 93000 for three to four hours; as the saying goes, prolonged consolidation must lead to a drop, so a slight bearish outlook can be considered at this level.

Process: Currently, I am not concerned about the trades in hand; after all, I hope it can reach a new high again, and I have opened a total of 1,000 U, so let’s ignore it for now. It’s also difficult for LSK to perform as I hoped, but I will open another position if the opportunity is right, hoping for a good result.
An order was closed at 92666.5 for 0.2 units, and I will see what to do with the remaining 0.3 units.
The remaining part was sold at 92876.5 because I opened a long position in ZEC, and I now have 4 positions in hand. My expectations for this position were not very high, so I believe it’s better to exit early for peace of mind.
Analysis: .
Result: Profit (47U)

Record Fourteen: PIPPINUSDT (20251203 :-:) is temporarily not open
Reason for Intervention:
1. From the chart above, it has already fallen out of the lower edge of the rising channel, which has not happened before. Previously, it briefly recovered and then quickly broke down. So, should we consider opening a short position at 0.204321 with a stop loss set at 0.22?
2. Additionally, from the perspective of trading volume, it has been continuously shrinking in recent days. The previous drop of ZEC started with a decline in trading volume. Does this indicate a decrease in attention?

Process:
I placed an order and will wait to see if it gets filled. The funding cost for this coin is too high. I made a profit of 300 yesterday, but the funding cost was over 50, so I hurriedly closed it this morning.

Record Eleven: Failed ZECUSDT (20251203 14:51-18:24)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
331.35 347 10 Short 160

Reason for Intervention:
1. ZEC has gone through a quite long period of increase, with prices rising from over forty to a peak of 775. Although it has already dropped by half, it still has a tenfold increase.
2. Since yesterday, Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10 points, while ZEC hasn't exceeded yesterday's opening price, showing very weak performance. Following the principle of shorting at highs, the current price is already close to the 4-hour moving averages of 5 and 10.
3. After falling back around 340 for three consecutive hourly candles, it can be considered to place the stop loss at 340.
Process: After the transaction, it has now rebounded to 335. Considering yesterday's trend, the stop loss has been adjusted to 470, continuing to observe, and there may be a possibility to add another position around 338.
Analysis: The previous analysis was not too problematic, but the timing of entry was indeed a bit early, not waiting for the upward spike to finish before entering. This was actually one of the opening principles I set for myself earlier. Perhaps after a few successful trades, I got a bit carried away and forgot the lesson. I initially wanted to open another position directly at 338, but unfortunately, I missed it. Well, I'll wait for another opportunity; it's a pity it was only 4 dollars above my stop loss price.
Result: Loss (160U)

$BTC
My bloody lesson
1. Control your position; greed is the deadliest enemy that leads to liquidation.
2. Control your anger; don't get too emotional. Continuous failures can make everything uncontrollable.
3. Strictly judge the conditions for entry; do not change them casually. You cannot open a position just because of temporary thoughts.
4. Any copycat that moves with the market has no need for intervention, because apart from its own movement, it is also affected by the market, adding an extra risk factor.
5. Copycat high entries are feasible, but position and stop-loss must be strictly controlled. A stop-loss area of over 50% can be set, but it cannot be omitted, and one should take profits when they arise.
6. Each maximum stop-loss must not exceed 10% of total funds. Any position that exceeds this limit must be prohibited.
7. When each profit reaches the stop-loss, first close half of the position to meet the basic requirement of capital preservation.
8. Use daily lines to judge trends, 4-hour lines to judge ranges, and 15-minute lines to judge entry timing.
9. You must ensure that you enter at the second buy or sell point.
10. Do not open positions against the trend; trends can be short but must exist. Pay attention to the ranges where trends change.
11. Regarding mindset, when one successfully captures, everything feels promising, but when facing continuous failures, life seems bleak. Human emotions inevitably fluctuate greatly, and being able to maintain stability is a form of cultivation.
12. Do not exceed 2 open positions simultaneously; having too many positions can lead to extreme market conditions, and the effect is the same as having overly large stop losses.

Stage Summary: (20251203 14:16)
Since the project started yesterday, there has only been 2,000 U, it's really like walking on thin ice. Before the project started, I set 12 rules based on lessons learned from bitter experiences, but right from the start, I lost two trades. The pressure is indeed quite large, so I opened a document to list every trade executed, wanting to summarize the failures properly.
Really, when you think about it a thousand times in your head, once you write it down, many things start to take shape. I seem to understand the reasons for the mistakes in the first two trades, so in the following trades, I will try my best to avoid them.
Currently, there have been ten trades, 7 wins, 2 losses, and 1 ongoing. The current trading capital is 3,200 U. Although there is some luck involved, by keeping records, I confirmed that after placing a trade, I became aware of the risks and effectively avoided them. Therefore, I want to stick to this method as much as possible, hoping to maintain vigilance in the future and keep pushing forward. To all the friends struggling in the contracts, let's encourage each other...

Record Ten: Partial Success ETHUSDT (20251203 11:07-11:31)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
3020.72 3000 10 Long 250

Reason for Intervention:
1. The fundamental reasons are the same as the above opening for BTC.
2. Ethereum is currently dropping slightly more than Bitcoin, which is also a risky decision.
Process: After the transaction, it directly rebounded to around 3030. The current price is at 3035. I closed the position at 3034.22 to reduce risk. My current ability to withstand risk is very poor, and the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum is too high. I can't really bear the blow of double stop losses. I would rather not make a profit and try not to lose as much as possible.
Analysis: It's still poor and chaotic. In fact, this stop loss isn't much because the opening point is low enough, and placing the stop loss at 3000 is quite safe. However, firstly, opening it together with Bitcoin creates too much pressure as their trends are similar. Secondly, it actually violates my principle of holding no more than two positions at the same time for this project. The main reason is that I can cover the stop loss of Bitcoin with the profits, but adding Ethereum can't cover it. Since I'm still in profit, I should exit for now. It's frustrating!!! When I have money, and once I start making money later, I will definitely seize the opportunity well.
Result: Profit (100U)

Record Nine: Successful BTCUSDT (20251203 10:56-13:47)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
92758.3 92300 1 Long 500
Reason for Entry:
1. The reason is the same as last time
2. Just after being stopped out, it quickly rebounded, returning to above 92700, wanting to be reckless once
3. Mainly not wanting to give up, and another account just happened to profit around 500U
Process: After placing the order, it broke through 93000 but quickly retraced, currently fluctuating around 92700, the risk looks significant, very anxious, looking back, this order has high risk because this position can go up or down, and it can also spike, but I can’t really bear that kind of risk, fortunately, I have the previous order and the Ethereum one as a foundation, the stop loss, while painful, is bearable, so I will continue to observe. My target for this order is above 1,000U, hoping for an opportunity to achieve it.
Analysis: Ultimately, fearing profit retracement, and feeling the breakthrough was not as smooth as imagined, so I closed all positions between 93216-93616, with an average closing price of 93393.16.
Result: Profit (600U) Ah, a poor man has short ambitions, left too early.

Record Eight: Partial Success BTCUSDT (20251203 09:54-10:46)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (Units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
92318.3 92000 1 Long 350
Reason for Intervention:
1. On the daily level, the current price is close to the last rebound high
2. Recent news is favorable, approaching the December 11 interest rate decision date, with the possibility of continued rebound
3. If a breakout occurs, there is significant room for imagination, willing to take some risks and gamble
Process: After the transaction, it continued to drop to a low of 92068 before bouncing back, peaking at 93020, 92911 minus 0.1, 93011 minus 0.1, then dropped, at 92755 minus 0.3, while changing the stop loss to 92400, the result was a sudden drop that triggered the stop loss, generating more than 100 slippage,
Analysis: This order actually carries a lot of risks, first, the large position caused my stop loss to be set too high, theoretically safer around 91700, second, the bullish sentiment was quite fast, I chased the order, the original limit order price was 92148, this price point could have avoided both the stop loss setting and the subsequent triggering of the stop loss, so sometimes one really can't be too anxious, especially in my current capital situation and when taking risks to intervene.
Result: Profit (200U)

Record Seven: Failed LSKUSDT (20251203 07:35-)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.2252 0.21 2000 Short 135
Reason for Entry:
1. On the daily level, the current price is still above the five-day moving average, and the four-hour line is also above the five-day line, indicating a relatively strong current trend.
2. On the hourly rate, the previous rate was below one-thousandth, making it easy to trigger a rebound.
3. The trend in recent days has not followed BTC, indicating the presence of a whale.
4. Previously, each time the previous high touched the 180-day moving average, this high point is still far away, betting that there will be another chance to touch that line upwards.
5. There was a significant drop the previous day, but the volume did not increase.
Process: After the transaction, it continued to decline, currently the lowest point is 0.2194 and rebounded to 0.2217, continuing to observe, both BTC and ETH have shown obvious rebounds, and have also reached the previous rebound high point, need to be cautious, in the future due to the favorable interest rate cut, it is currently possible to consider a breakthrough for long.
Analysis: The timing of this entry is not too good, let's see, wait until it ends to analyze.
Result: This order has ended, loss (140U)