余余7234

#事件合约 almost lost it, cried, not playing anymore

Trend Judgment

Extreme Overbought: 1-hour RSI(6)=91.46, STOCHRSI=95.86, 4-hour indicators are fully overbought, funding rate 0.0064% shows bullish crowding.

Price Target and Time

· Pullback (Probability 80%): Target 3,980-4,000 (1-hour MA5/Bollinger Midline), Time 6-12 hours
· If Strong Breakout (Probability 20%): Break above 4,060 targeting 4,080-4,100, must confirm with volume

Long and Short Strategies and Win Rate

· Short Strategy: Current price 4,054 or rebound 4,058-4,065 to short, stop loss 4,080, target 4,000-3,980, win rate 80%
· Long Strategy: Wait for stabilization at 3,980-4,000 to go long, stop loss 3,950, target 4,040-4,060, win rate 20%

Key Levels

Resistance: 4,056 (Today's High) → 4,080
Support: 4,000 (Psychological Level) → 3,980 (Technical Support)

Urgent Advice: Immediately reduce long positions, current price risk is extremely high, prioritize shorting on rallies.

Comprehensive Judgment

· Direction: Short-term (4-8 hours) bullish, target 3,980-4,000
· Time: Today to tomorrow's Asian session
· Probability: 70%
· Trend: Four-hour upward trend continues, one-hour consolidation before breakout

Key Basis:

1. Four-hour MACD (5.55) golden cross accelerated, price stabilizes above all short-term moving averages
2. One-hour breaks 3,950 resistance, KDJ (92.79) shows strong momentum
3. Open interest 1.52M remains high, bulls account for 73% supporting prices
4. Funding rate 0.0025% is healthy, no excessive leverage

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Bullish: Enter at current price 3,955 with light position, add position on pullback to 3,945, stop loss at 3,930, target 3,980-4,000
· Bearish: Watch and only consider shorting above 4,000
· Win Rate: Bullish 70%, Bearish 30%

Key Levels:

· Support: 3,945 (one-hour EMA dense area) → 3,930
· Resistance: 3,968 (previous high) → 3,980-4,000

Risk Warning: If it falls below 3,930 support, it will turn bearish in the short term, looking down to 3,900.

$ETH Comprehensive Judgment (Multiple Time Frame Confirmation)

· Direction: Short-term (4-8 hours) Bullish
· Target: 3,960-3,980 (Look for 4,000 after a breakout)
· Time: Within the remaining trading time today
· Probability: Approximately 75%
· Trend: Four-hour MACD Golden Cross Acceleration + Hourly Chart Breakout Consolidation

Key Basis:

1. Four-hour MACD (5.36) Golden Cross with expanded histogram, increased upward momentum
2. Price stabilizes above the four-hour Bollinger middle band (3,892) and tests the upper band (3,988)
3. Hourly chart forms a "Higher Low" structure (3,921→3,935→3,936)
4. Four-hour STOCHRSI (72) is high but not overbought, still has upward space

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Long: Enter at current price 3,938, stop loss 3,920, target 3,970-3,980
· Short: Wait and consider reversing in the 3,980-4,000 area
· Win Rate: Long 75%, Short 25%

Key Observation Point: If volume breaks above 3,950, it will accelerate upward; if it falls below 3,920, the short-term rebound will end.

$ETH Comprehensive Judgment (Multi-Time Frame Resonance)

· Direction: Short-term (2-4 hours) bullish rebound
· Target: 3,960 - 3,980
· Time: Within the next 4-8 hours
· Probability: Approximately 70%
· Trend: Hourly level severely oversold (STOCHRSI 3.29) stabilizing, daily line fluctuating, monthly line slightly bearish but with short-term rebound demand

Key Basis:

1. Hourly chart STOCHRSI (3.29) extremely oversold, technical rebound demand exists
2. Price finds support in the 3,920-3,930 range, not breaking previous low
3. Four-hour MACD golden cross status still maintained
4. Funding rate 0.0046% neutral, no intensified selling pressure signals

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Long: Enter at current price 3,932, stop loss 3,915, target 3,960 (risk-reward ratio 1:2)
· Short: Wait and see, consider if rebound reaches 3,975-3,985 area
· Win Rate: Long 70%, Short 30%

Key Risks: If it breaks below 3,915 support, it will test 3,880.

$ETH Judgment Result
Short-term (1-2 hours) surge and pullback, testing 3,970-3,980 before retracing to 3,930-3,940, probability 60%. The trend is oscillating with a bullish bias but close to resistance.

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Core Basis

1. Bullish momentum strengthens:
· 1-hour MACD golden cross (0.98) and RSI(6)=72.56 (overbought edge), KDJ-J=77.47, short-term still has upward momentum.
· Price breaks through the BOLL middle track (3,928) and approaches the upper track (3,970), moving averages MA5/MA10 in bullish arrangement.
2. Clear resistance suppression:
· Previous high 3,963-3,970 is a strong resistance zone, daily MA20 (4,051) and the upper Bollinger band (4,709) have limited space below.
· Four-hour STOCHRSI overbought (80.78) has not been effectively digested, with a bullish ratio of 74% being too high, creating pullback pressure.
3. Funding rate 0.0028%:
· Although still relatively low, it has risen from the previous value (0.0016%), short-term bullish sentiment is heating up but sustainability is questionable.

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Long and Short Strategy

· Short:
· Entry: Lightly short at 3,970-3,980
· Stop Loss: 3,995
· Target: 3,930-3,940
· Win Rate: 60%
· Long:
· Entry: Long near the pullback at 3,935
· Stop Loss: 3,920
· Target: 3,965-3,975
· Win Rate: 55%

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Key Operational Logic

1. Do not chase highs: RSI(6) overbought and close to previous high resistance, waiting for a rebound before shorting is safer.
2. Monitor volume closely: If it breaks 3,980 and stands steadily, abandon short positions; if it breaks down with volume below 3,930, look down to 3,900.
3. Position management: Light positions for quick in and out within the oscillating range (3,930-3,970), follow the trend if it breaks.

#事件合约 Can perpetual contracts still be traded? Just place an order and hit the stop loss.

#事件合约 The most frustrating thing is like this, almost, immediately after pulling, just a second.

How much to buy and how to play with $ETH ?

Damn, perpetuals always hold on to profits without closing positions, resulting in losses. Fortunately, the turn of events in the contract made up for it.

I dropped it, I almost thought it was going to eat me, I almost cursed out loud #事件合约

#事件合约 cried, the last bullet.

$BTC Ah, I can't get over it. I'm going to lose everything this time.

$ETH Look at me, it should be a big surge tonight

Hahaha not bad

$ETH Consolidating for so many days, it should rise for three to five days.

$MYX is too harsh, earned only 13u, charged 10u for fees

$MYX remembered the fear of being dominated by Luna

$MYX I think it will rise for another two or three days.