Albertine Kaiser

Can't miss it when passing by

Good Morning 🌞

ETH/USD — Scenario Forecasts
Scenario Bias Key Trigger Near-Term Target Medium-Term Outlook
1. Bull Case Bullish breakout Price closes above $4,300 with volume > average $4,500 → $4,700 short-term $5,000 – $5,200 possible if global sentiment improves and ETF outflows slow
2. Base Case Neutral-range ETH holds between $3,900 – $4,300; volume mixed, sentiment cautious Sideways drift around $4,050 ± 150 Rangebound until macro clarity or BTC movement
3. Bear Case Breakdown ETH closes below $3,900 with volume spike $3,750 → $3,600 zone Panic could test $3,400 before buyers return
Supporting Analysis
🔹 Volume
• Current 1-hour and 4-hour candles show volume contraction on upward moves and expansion on selloffs, hinting that rallies lack conviction.
• That aligns with the Base / Bear bias unless new demand emerges above $4.3K.
🔹 Sentiment (social + ETF + options data)
• Fear & Greed Index: around 52 (neutral) → no extreme bias.
• ETF outflows: $429 M in the last week = mild institutional cooling.
• Derivatives OI: still elevated, suggesting traders expect a large move soon.
🔹 Macro & News Flow
• US CPI data this week boosted short-term dollar strength — mildly negative for crypto.
• However, Fed futures still price in a rate cut in Q1 2026 → medium-term supportive for ETH.
• Developer growth (+16K YTD) and network stability remain bullish long-term signals.
My Read (Summary)
Short-term (next 2–5 days):
Expect range trade / minor bearish bias toward $3,900–$3,950 before any rebound.
If $4,300 breaks on solid volume, switch bias to bullish immediately.
Medium-term (2–6 weeks):
Bullish if ETH holds above $4,200 — could trend toward $4,800–$5,000 zone by year-end assuming BTC remains constructive and ETF flows stabilize.

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🧧Send Red Packet🧧

The bulls retreat, the bears take the stage
The market in recent days has been as gloomy as the weather.
The bulls have lost the power to resist, and the market is completely controlled by the bears.
A decline without liquidity is more alarming than a crash—it's not a clean cut, but a slow bleed.
Bitcoin's trend is almost filled with fatigue:
The four-hour big bearish candle continues to decline, with no volume in the rebound, using sideways movement instead of a drop, and there are no signs of accelerated upward attack.
BlackRock's sell-off is like the final blow—nearly $994 million in selling has shattered the market's fragile confidence.
Now the key support level is only 107,000; once it breaks, 102,000 will be the only buying zone below.
There is no obvious support in between, and the trend will become more extreme.
In the short term, don't fantasize about a reversal, and don't engage in emotional bottom-fishing trades.
If the market continues to weaken, pay attention to the secondary bottom near 102,100, which may be a zone for a potential stage rebound—but until then, it remains the bears' territory.
Give up on fantasies and go with the flow.
A crash will hurt for a while, while a steady decline will hurt for a long time.
What matters most now is not to bet on a rebound, but to learn to wait.
Operational strategy:
Conservatively focus on bearish positions, quick in and out; long positions should only be lightly defended with limit orders in extreme pullback zones.

Remember—before the market stops falling, position size is your life-saving seatbelt


#BTC走势分析 $BTC