旺财小福

When will it rise?
We have to wait until those who make contracts completely lose confidence and dare not open positions anymore.

In late October, the main forces pressed the contract premium below 1 four times, which also triggered three liquidations: on October 17, 600 million was liquidated, on the 22nd, 400 million was liquidated, and on the 30th, 1 billion was directly liquidated. After the first three liquidations, the market quickly rebounded to the previous high, and now ETH is still around 3800 points.

From the broader environment, QE has ended, there are expectations for interest rate cuts in December, and China-US relations are also easing, so we can't say that the bull market is over. It's just that this process is too exhausting, and make sure not to leave the market when you can't hold on anymore.

Currently, the secondary altcoins in the exchange are not being taken over at all. Projects like SOL and those on the Base chain are stuck in the path to being listed on Binance, and the future potential is particularly low.

Chinese MEME coins on the BSC chain are also not performing well due to not being listed on exchanges. Overall, there aren't many trading opportunities in the market right now, so we can only wait.

昨天币圈跟着美股一起大跌，BTC 一度跌破 108000 ，但很快就涨了回来。从这波走势能看出，BTC108000 、ETH3800 以内的流动性，都被主力快速吸走了。

另外，过去 4 个月市场一直是极致震荡的状态，这种行情更适合做震荡交易。要是做趋势交易，容易被反复波动磨掉收益。后续操作可以留意两点：跌破区间底部时关注反转机会，到了区间中轨则要留意变盘，一旦站稳中轨就可以看多。

A couple of days ago, it was mentioned that there would be a callback first, and now the callback is almost at the position. Bitcoin fell to around 107900 USD around noon, at this time you can layout the four major mainstream coins, prioritizing spot trading, and if doing contracts, do not exceed 5 times leverage.
Additionally, do not go all in; entering with a 50% position is sufficient. Last night, the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations, turning a favorable situation into a negative one. There will be further callbacks, and then buying the dip again—these are all anticipated. Remember to buy slowly when the market falls and sell slowly when it rises.

Yesterday, looking at BTC, if it doesn't rebound, there is a possibility of dropping down to 108000. Today it fell to around 109000 at its lowest and touched the Ma200 daily moving average once again.

Based on my years of experience: if the market repeatedly tests support or resistance levels, it is highly likely that it will eventually break through that position.

Overall, BTC may first rebound to 112000 in the near term, and then drop down to 103000 dollars.

Originally, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks directly tanked the market.

On October 30, Powell stated at a press conference that the rate cuts in September and this time were both of a risk management nature, and that this approach would not continue indefinitely.

He opened with a key statement: "The committee had significant disagreements in this meeting regarding how to operate in December. It is still uncertain whether there will be another policy rate cut in December."
As a result, the market's expectation probability for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December quickly dropped from 92% to 70%, and prices of various risk assets also fell across the board.

The new narrative direction of the OpenAI sector has been declining since its launch, although there was quite a bit of hype during that time, with even Nvidia investing money.
The price has been going down, partly because those who hyped it up sold off, and more importantly, there are too many unlocked tokens, leading to heavy selling pressure. That said, the overall targets in this sector are still quite good.
Now the weekly chart has been consolidating at the bottom, with strong support in the range of 0.33 to 0.35. It is recommended to wait a bit longer and enter when it drops to around 0.35; making a profit of several dozen points at that time will likely not be a problem.

Tonight at 2 AM will definitely not be calm, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. At that time, it is highly likely that they will first wash both sides of the long and short positions, and then determine the trend direction.
Long brother thinks the probability of a short-term pullback is greater because the end of the month is approaching and the monthly K-line needs to be closed. The real upward trend is expected to wait until early or mid-November, and I am talking about Bitcoin and the four major mainstream coins.
Altcoins are not recommended, at most hold 10% of your position. Moreover, it is already the tail end of the bull market, so even if the price rises, be careful and don't hold too high expectations. Taking Bitcoin as a reference, it may rise to a maximum of 130,000 to 150,000 USD, don't think about earning that last bit of profit.

Now playing with Meme coins, one must consider market sentiment and be able to predict how others think. Let me share my views on a few leading Meme coins in the Binance ecosystem:

GIGGLE is the only and the first Meme coin that has recently been listed on Binance spot market.

Those that have already been listed on Binance Alpha include PALU, Binance Life, and 4; they are all Meme coins that have the potential to be listed on spot next.

Currently, it seems that regardless of who is next to be listed on spot — for example, Binance Life, as soon as it is listed, I predict it will initially skyrocket to a new high for a short period, and then gradually decline. Because once it is listed on spot, there are no new positive news, and after a wave of sentiment passes, there will be no retail investors to take over.

The trading strategy is also simple: at the same time, GIGGLE will definitely be drained, first plunging and then declining. At this point, one can short GIGGLE first and then find a good point to short Binance Life.
If it goes this way, then the market cap ceiling for Meme coins in the Binance ecosystem is probably around 300 million, and the sentiment for Meme coins will gradually dissipate; after the carnival comes a pile of loose sand.
So from the perspective of the Binance ecosystem, what is the only way to break the deadlock?

The only solution is for capital to raise GIGGLE's market cap to 500 million, or even 1 billion. After all, GIGGLE is the first Meme coin listed on spot; its ceiling has been opened, and all subsequent coins will have higher expectations, and sentiment will be stronger, allowing the BSC Meme ecosystem to thrive.

This is also what many large GIGGLE holders are betting on now — they do not expect retail investors to take over, but are betting on Binance's landscape to sustain the BSC ecosystem for the long term.

Even though BNB has pulled back, the overall outlook remains optimistic for an increase. Therefore, priority should be given to entering long positions when prices are low.

It is recommended to enter long positions in the range of 1138 to 1152, with an initial target of 1180; if this level can be broken, then the next target would be 1200. However, the market is currently volatile, so it is important to set stop losses and be flexible in responding to changes in the market.

Recently, the market is quite interesting; the concept of x402 on Base has been tossed around for a while, and in the end, it seems to have made a wedding dress for the Sol chain, with the market's attention completely drawn away by the Sol chain.

If the $PAYAI on the Sol chain can open up the upward space this time, then the Sol chain will have the best counterattack opportunity. Recently, I also noticed that old projects on the Sol chain are transforming to do x402, tightly grasping this wave of narrative heat, it just depends on how the foundation cooperates, and whether it can recreate the market conditions of last year's AI boom.

Moreover, PAYAI is not competing with PING on the surface narrative, but is quietly seizing the original leading position of Base. After all, the two have different paths; one is steadily building on-chain payment infrastructure, while the other is more inclined towards hyping topics.

DOGE should rise after this.
The time for accumulation this time has been long enough, and it has built a bottom three times. The most severe shakeout has also ended, and there is a high probability of a wave of market movement next.
Looking up, around 0.32 is a relatively strong resistance level.

If there are new coins on the contract this week, basically none of these four will perform well.

PALU and Hakimi have the closest market values, and the competition is the fiercest. But PALU relies purely on controlling the market; with 3 million, you can gain an early advantage, something I've never seen before. According to the current control situation, roughly speaking, $PALU has controlled about ten percentage points more chips than Hakimi.

Customer service Xiao He and Xiu Xian are weaker in comparison. Among these two, I have more faith in customer service Xiao He, because Binance controls about 70% of its chips — proper control is a prerequisite for entering the contract.

The current market is very similar to the period from September to November last year.
Last September, several leading MEME coins emerged, like Moodeng, Neiro, and Ban, which initially brought heat to the chain, and then they gradually listed on Binance. At that time, many retail investors missed out and were particularly eager to seize the next opportunity.

By October, Goat and ACT were released, and these two directly surged to a market value of over 1 billion. Subsequently, retail investors rushed onto the chain to buy new MEME coins, coincidentally, at that time 16Z also introduced the concept of AI applications. There were plenty of easy-to-understand good opportunities everywhere, and new retail investors could comprehend it, making the AI track suddenly popular.

This round of $4, $Binance Life, $Giggle is similar to last year's Moodeng, Neiro, and Ban, which were the varieties that initially gained momentum. Moreover, now X402 has just emerged, and the imaginative space of this track can be greatly expanded.

Listen to me, for the next month or two, don’t run around blindly; just stay at home and focus on the market steadily.

X402 exploded in popularity, directly attracting the hot money in the market to the base chain, which caused the popularity of the bsc chain to start declining.
However, Binance responded quickly, directly launching giggle's spot market today, hoping to bring the popularity back to the bsc chain. In the coming period, it is estimated that base and bsc will be competing with each other.
In the end, it is still us retail investors who benefit. I hope base can produce more projects like ping, and I also look forward to Binance listing more spot markets on the bsc chain — this way, the market conditions on the chain can quickly improve again!

Binance issued an announcement, clearly stating: The four popular meme coins in BSC, 'King', will not all be listed at once; it has to be done step by step — first the contract, then the spot trading. ​
The situation of these four coins is different, let me briefly explain: ​
$PALU: The odds are currently the highest, and the contract is estimated to be in process, should be listed soon; ​
$4: Completely controlled by the project team, the pace is particularly slow, following their own rhythm; ​
$ Binance Life: It has the highest level of recognition in the entire market, the community has always been there, without high control, but if it goes live on the spot, it can easily cause the whole market to 'fear of missing out' (FOMO); ​
$GIGGLE: It is already the hottest one in this wave, just waiting to see how much it can rise after going live on the spot after 2 AM.

Recently, the market has been particularly difficult to operate in, and it is still in a phase of fluctuating and bottoming out. This phase makes it hard to judge the market trend, which is especially challenging for people.

However, there is some good news: Big Brother has been granted a pardon, which can somewhat boost market confidence.
Currently, the strategy with a relatively high risk-reward ratio is to gradually increase positions in SOL and BNB in batches of spot trading. It is recommended to continue holding and to keep buying.

The industry concepts are overwhelming, with Meme at the beginning of the year, perp and stable in the middle of the year, and now it's the turn of the BSC ecosystem and prediction markets.
But in any case, the market's attention and money are on BSC, while other ecosystems shouldn't expect a rise.
The current situation is: the market size is limited, but there are no new tokens coming, and as soon as new tokens are launched, they divert liquidity.
Big Brother only knows to keep launching tokens on the platform, without realizing that this is harmful to the industry — although there is a delisting mechanism, it only manages to delist a few in a year.

Short MET, it is said to be a top-tier project, but it will go live on Binance Alpha tonight.
The key is that nearly half of the tokens for this project are about to be unlocked, which could likely lead to a direct dump, clearly presenting an opportunity for shorting that is like giving away money.
However, it's best to short with a low leverage to prevent it from suddenly surging and liquidating the short position.

Recommend a low market cap token, this type of coin usually has a higher chance of explosive market performance, that is TA.
Currently, the TA price is about 0.049, and you can enter a long position around this price level.
Set the stop loss at 0.045, and determine the position size based on your own capital. The initial target is to see 0.07.