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XRP Supply Shock: How Token Burns Could Impact Price by 2035
$XRP As XRP continues to trade around $2.30, conversations around its long-term token supply and potential scarcity have resurfaced. The XRP Ledger (XRPL), designed with a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, consistently reduces its total through token burns attached to transaction fees. Presently, approximately 5,000 XRP are destroyed daily in this process.
Although this figure appears minimal, several analysts argue that the cumulative effect of these burns, especially if daily network activity expands, could significantly reduce the available supply by 2035.
👉Supply Projections and Possible Valuations
At present, XRP’s circulating supply stands near 59.9 billion tokens, with a market capitalization of around $150 billion at a unit price of $2.35. Analysts estimate that if the total supply declines by 40% within the next decade, the overall number of XRP tokens could fall to approximately 60 billion, while circulation might settle around 40 billion.
This estimate factors in Ripple’s escrow holdings and assumes continuous burning alongside potential company participation in reducing outstanding tokens. If market demand remains stable under these conditions, the price could reach roughly $4.17 per token, a 77% increase from current levels. This calculation is based purely on scarcity-driven appreciation rather than expanded utility.
However, supply contraction alone does not determine market value. XRP’s price trajectory will largely depend on its demand, which is influenced by real-world adoption and utility. Key factors include RippleNet’s payment volume, cross-border settlement usage, and broader integration of XRP Ledger services by institutions.
If these adoption metrics grow, the combined effects of increased demand and declining supply could accelerate price growth. For example, a 50% rise in demand paired with a 40% supply reduction could push prices toward $6.25. Should demand double during the same period, XRP could trade above $ 8.
Moreover, if transaction volume expands significantly, resulting in 15,000 to 20,000 XRP burned daily, supply reduction could become more pronounced. By 2035, this scenario could remove over 100 million XRP from circulation, potentially lifting prices into the $12–$16 range, assuming steady demand levels.
👉Assessing the Likelihood
Despite these optimistic forecasts, achieving a 40% reduction in total supply may prove difficult. The current burn rate of 5,000 tokens per day equates to approximately 1.8 million XRP annually, just 20 million over the next decade. Such figures represent a small fraction of the total token pool.
To create a significant impact, network activity and transaction volume would need to increase substantially. Even so, XRP’s capped supply structure and gradual deflationary design continue to support the argument for long-term value appreciation.
Incremental rises in daily burns, combined with adoption growth, could still meaningfully reinforce its scarcity narrative.
👉Broader Market Expectations
While some analysts focus on deflationary projections, others envision far higher valuations based on long-term utility and institutional involvement.
Cameron Scrubs, founder of Tradeship University, has suggested that XRP could overtake Bitcoin by 2030 and become the top cryptocurrency. Similarly, Coach JV has voiced confidence in XRP reaching the $300 mark in the future.
Independent projections from Changelly also reflect a bullish stance, forecasting that XRP might climb to around $115 by December 2034.
Although the possibility of a 40% supply cut by 2035 remains uncertain, the principle of scarcity supports XRP’s potential for gradual price appreciation. If network activity increases and adoption strengthens, XRP could benefit from both supply contraction and rising demand, setting the stage for higher valuations over the next decade.
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