方舟掘金

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In the cryptocurrency market, true success never relies on luck but is built on systematic strategies and ironclad discipline. This is not a casino but a battlefield for the wise—especially when the capital is limited, one must remain calm like a hunter, knowing how to wait in silence for the best opportunity.

I once guided a student who started with 800U. At first, he was as if walking on thin ice with every trade, fearing that a single mistake would lead to total loss. But under our shared principle of "discipline first, steady growth," his account broke through 1000U in two months and soared to 20,000U five months later, all while maintaining a zero liquidation record.

There were no miracles behind this, only the firm execution of the following three core principles:

🛡️ Funds divided into three parts, with reasons for entrance and exit
Scientific capital management is the foundation of survival and development:
Offensive funds (200U): Used for intraday short positions, focusing on mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, decisively taking profits when volatility reaches 2%-4%
Flexible funds (200U): Used for trend positions, waiting for clear signals to seize mid-term swings of 5-7 days
Defensive funds (400U): As strategic reserves, never to be easily used under any circumstances, ensuring the ability to counterattack at all times
Full position trading is like fighting with your back against the wall; true wisdom always leaves chips for tomorrow.

🌊 Go with the trend, patiently wait for opportunities
The market spends 80% of its time in chaotic fluctuations; frequent trading will only continuously deplete capital:
When the trend is unclear, patiently stay in cash
When signals are confirmed, strike decisively
Lock in part of the profits immediately when gains reach 10%
The mantra of strong traders is: better to miss than to make a mistake.

⚖️ Strictly adhere to discipline, make rational decisions
Establish and stick to your trading rules:
Single trade losses strictly controlled within 1.5%
If profits exceed 3%, immediately reduce positions, keeping the remaining positions to let profits run
Never add to losing positions against the trend, never make emotional top-ups

Successful trading does not depend on the accuracy of predictions but on the consistency of execution.
In this market, the scale of capital has never been the deciding factor; the mindset of fantasizing about "getting rich overnight" is the biggest trap. The journey from 800U to 20,000U relies on systematic trading methods, sufficient patience, and strict self-discipline.
Change starts today, from this moment. Let us abandon gambling tendencies and move steadily forward in this opportunity-filled market with rationality and discipline. @方舟掘金

Next Week's Macro Trading Guide: Three Key Events Determine Market Direction

Navigating Through the Data Fog, Keep an Eye on These Three Beacons

November 13 (Thursday) CPI Data - The Ultimate Judgment of Inflation
Despite the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the October CPI data will still be released as scheduled. This data will become the core reference for the Federal Reserve's policy path, directly determining the final direction of interest rate cuts in December.
The market expects core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month; if the actual data falls below this value, it may reignite expectations for rate cuts, providing support for risk assets; if it exceeds expectations, it implies that interest rates will remain high for a longer period.

November 14 (Friday) Retail Sales + PPI - Dual Indicators of Economic Health
The retail sales and PPI data released on the same day will reveal the economic reality from two dimensions:
Retail sales reflect consumer demand resilience

PPI shows pressure from production cost transmission
Currently, consumption shows signs of slowing down but has not collapsed; PPI also remains moderate. The combination of these two data sets will depict the true picture of the U.S. economy - is it a soft landing or heading into recession?

The Ongoing 39-Day Government Shutdown - The Biggest Macro Risk
This shutdown, which began on October 1, has set a historical record and is eroding the market from three levels:
Data black-boxing: Multiple economic data releases are interrupted, and the market is like a blind person touching an elephant
Damage to the real economy: 750,000 federal employees are unpaid, and key services maintain minimal operations
Tightening financial conditions: Liquidity exhaustion pushes up real interest rates, and the risk premium on government bonds rises
The bipartisan struggle in Congress continues, and whether the shutdown can be resolved this week will become a litmus test for market confidence.

Investment Strategy: Finding Certainty Amid Uncertainty
When the macro environment is full of variables, profitable opportunities come more from the narrative of the projects themselves and the effects of capital rotation.

Recommendations to Focus On:
High-quality projects with independent logic
The flow trajectory of funds between different sectors
Potential timing for a shift in Federal Reserve policy

The best investors are not those who predict the most accurately, but those who can piece together a complete picture from fragmented data. When the public celebrates or panics over a single data point, real opportunities are quietly growing within the macro trends. @方舟掘金

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a weak pattern dominated by bears, with a continuation of the short-term downward trend.

Bitcoin can be positioned around 102300-102800, looking at 101500 and 100500.

In sync with Bitcoin's trend, it can be positioned around 3420-3440, looking at 3350 and 3300.

Operation suggestion: Focus on short-term trading, flexibly control the rhythm, select entry points for short positions during rebounds, and do not misjudge trend reversals due to short-term corrections #ETH #BTC .

The self-discipline journey of an ordinary trader

Without insider information and without luck on her side, she relies on extreme self-discipline and strict execution.

"In the cryptocurrency market, it has never been about IQ, but rather patience and self-control."

Six trading rules for extraordinary returns

Insight into the main players' movements
When prices rise slowly with limited pullbacks, it often means that the main players are quietly accumulating. The short-term fluctuations at this time are just tests; real winners know how to patiently hold on.

Identifying selling signals
If there is weak rebound after a sharp decline, this is not the time to buy the dip but a signal to retreat. Wise investors do not easily take over others' selling.

Distinguishing true tops from false ones
A spike in volume at the top does not necessarily indicate a crash; it could be a shakeout. The real signal of a peak is a decrease in volume with falling prices; understanding this rhythm can help avoid traps.

Confirming bottom formations
A single spike in volume is not reliable; continuous volume spikes are the true signal for building positions. By observing candlestick patterns, one can accurately grasp the main players' intentions.

Understanding the essence of the market
Technical patterns can be faked, but trading volume is hard to disguise. True experts know how to interpret the "language of volume," seeing the essence beyond appearances.

Cultivating a trading mindset
The highest realm is to achieve desirelessness, fearlessness, and non-attachment. Investors who can sit on the sidelines and endure solitude are the ones qualified to enjoy complete market returns.

The true opponent in the cryptocurrency market has never been the dealers, but rather our own hands, emotions, and greed. Market conditions are always changing, opportunities always exist, but only those who can maintain their mindset and control their positions can ultimately win.

On this investment journey, there is no need to rush for quick riches. First, learn how not to incur losses, then think about how to profit—after all, in this highly volatile market, stability is the greatest luxury. @方舟掘金

Many people, when they first enter the circle, only have a few hundred or a thousand U in hand, anxious to the point of desperation, thinking about 'doubling their investment in one go,' but less than half a month later, their accounts are wiped clean, and they disappear. I understand that mentality very well. In the early years, I did the same thing. I entered the market with 1000 U, went all in, leveraged, and averaged down, thinking I would make a big profit, but it felt like I was just launching fireworks every day. After a few explosions, I realized: the harshest thing in the crypto world is not the market, but people's own impatience. Later, I took a novice under my wing; he started with only 1200 U and in four months grew it to 25,000 U. Now his account is steadily at over 38,000 U, and he hasn’t blown a single position, which surprises me. This is not luck; he simply followed my method of 'steadily turning around.' He asked me: 'K, can a few hundred U really take off?' I said: 'Yes, but you must first learn to survive.' From day one, we split the 1200 U into three parts: 400 U for short-term trades, doing only one trade a day, neither greedy nor chasing; 400 U for swing trading, only focusing on major market movements, and taking the whole segment if possible; the remaining 400 U, we absolutely do not touch—that is the life-saving bottom line. Many people fail by going all in, while we survive by having an 'exit strategy.' During his first two months, he hardly made any profit, but he also didn’t lose; then in the third month, as ETH rebounded, his swing trade directly pulled out a 60% profit. I urged him to immediately withdraw 30% to secure the gains. At that moment, he realized what it meant to 'truly earn money is not about gambling, but about guarding.' In the crypto world, 80% of the time is spent in volatility; making random moves is just giving away money. I often say: if you don’t understand the market, resting is more valuable than trading. Wait for the trend to confirm, then go with the flow. At that point, making one trade is worth more than making dozens of random clicks. Over the past few years, I turned 8000 U into financial freedom, relying entirely on the 'three no’s': no all-in, no counter-trend, no emotional trading. Rules are the defense line, emotions are the explosives; if you don’t control them, they will blow you up sooner or later. So, I often tell my fans: if your capital is less than 1500 U, don’t rush to open a position; first learn how to be 'steady.' Money can be made endlessly, but life is only one. That novice later told me: 'K, I used to think speed was important, but later I realized that slow is steady, and steady is winning.' I have remembered this sentence until now. There is only one shortcut in the crypto world: first learn not to lose, then learn to make money. If you really want to roll a small capital into a doubling curve, don’t blindly open positions. Come find me; I’ll teach you how to play the 'slow is fast' strategy. Fewer blown accounts mean more years of life @方舟掘金

In the cryptocurrency world, the real losses come not from the market, but from losing control of oneself.
Once upon a time, I also went through those crazy days—placing dozens of trades every day, chasing every fluctuation, not setting stop losses, and blindly increasing my positions.

Later, after calmly reviewing, I realized: it was not a technical issue at all, but purely a matter of emotional control. 90% of people in the cryptocurrency world make the same mistake—it's not the fear of loss that haunts them, but the fear of doing nothing. Seeing others make money makes them restless, facing their own unrealized losses makes them anxious, and with just a slight fluctuation in the candlestick chart, they can't help but open the trading interface. The outcome is often not being harvested by the market, but being defeated by their own impulses.

Later, I made three fundamental changes:

1. Eliminate impulsiveness, only take winning trades.
In the past, I was obsessed with the minute fluctuations of the one-minute candlestick chart, but now I only look at the trends on the 4-hour and daily charts. I don't make more than three trades a week; if I don't fully understand the market, I'd rather stay in cash. If my hands are idle, my funds won't be lost in vain.

2. Be decisive in winning, act swiftly in losses.
The initial position should never exceed 10% of the total capital; only after making a profit should I consider increasing my position, and I will cut losses immediately. When profits reach 20%, I lock in half of the profits first, and let the remaining part follow the trend, without fantasizing or clinging to the battle. Taking profits and cutting losses is not an empty slogan, but a lifesaving talisman.

3. Discipline is more important than all signals.
When emotions are unstable, immediately go offline to rest; after two consecutive losses, I force myself to stop trading. Daily reviews are not for showing off skills, but to force myself to face the truth: is profit really due to skill, or is it just luck?

The essence of trading.
The cryptocurrency world never lacks opportunities; what is lacking are those who can resist temptation and stick to their positions. When the account is continuously bleeding, don’t rush to find the next trade to recover; first ask yourself: Am I trading rationally, or am I gambling with my life?

Stay calm, and the market will eventually reward you. Don’t always think about getting rich overnight; first, learn to survive in the market. If you can achieve this, you have already surpassed 90% of participants.
In this highly volatile market, the most powerful weapon is not an accurate prediction, but the discipline to execute strictly. When you can control your own hands, you have also mastered the flow of funds.
——
To everyone who is continuously exploring in the cryptocurrency world: May every trade we make be the result of rational thinking, rather than the cost of emotional impulses. @方舟掘金

Last month, a friend came to me with 6000U. He said he had been liquidated three times, and the last time he almost went to zero, feeling like he was about to explode with stress, asking if I had any methods to turn things around quickly—doesn't this just mean he wants a way to get rich overnight?

I told him directly: “If you're thinking like this to learn, you might as well go back early.” I never teach methods for “getting rich overnight,” nor do I believe such a path exists; to put it bluntly, this is just “gambling.” Later, I didn’t talk about advanced strategies but just had him honestly follow my guidance for a month.

As a result, after a month, not only did he not get liquidated, but he also made a net profit of 8000U. He himself was astonished: “This is the first time I feel that making money can actually be so controllable.” This is not luck; it is a genuine method.

Contracts are inherently a double-edged sword: if played well, it's the fastest upward path for ordinary people; if played poorly, it's the deepest abyss. Too many people think they can double a thousand or two in one night, only to find themselves wiped out without doubling. I started from 8000U back then and was often hit hard by the market, almost going to zero more than once; surviving to this day relies entirely on understanding and timing.

Liquidation is never accidental; having too much leverage, not being able to withstand the capital, and high transaction fees and frequent operations are also consuming funds. Many people still perish due to poor understanding: losing 90% does not mean gaining 90% will break even; rather, it requires a 9-fold increase!

The BOLL indicator that I often use is truly a lifesaver. By entering and exiting the market when the trend opens and closes, I once achieved a 30-fold return in a month using it. However, most people just watch the excitement without truly applying it, missing out on opportunities.

In the end, the problem is very simple: are you currently making trades based on feeling, or based on a system? Still getting liquidated, reinvesting, and then getting liquidated again? Don’t be cannon fodder anymore. Contracts can make money; you just need a method that can control risk.

The market is still brewing; those who understand have already laid their plans, while those who don’t can only stand on the sidelines and slap their thighs. If you are also feeling a bit confused now or need more guidance, feel free to reach out to me anytime, and I will provide you with a detailed analysis!​@方舟掘金

In the volatile market of cryptocurrency, short-term profits may rely on luck, but long-term stable profits must depend on ironclad discipline. After years of practical experience, I have summarized eight rules for survival, hoping to help you establish a solid foundation in this market.

1. Grasp the key period of the early session
The first 30 minutes after the market opens serve as a direction indicator for the entire day's market. During this time, it is crucial not to blindly chase highs or sell lows, but to calmly observe trend signals. If there is a sudden drop, consider buying in batches; if there is a rapid rise, take profits in a timely manner.

2. Don’t chase what you missed, be brave to buy on deep dips
There’s no need to regret missing the early session's surge; chasing highs often begins the process of being trapped. If there is a deep pullback in the afternoon, stay calm and look for opportunities to enter in batches the next day, as you may often capture technical rebound opportunities.

3. Respond calmly to morning dips and sideways markets
Minor fluctuations in the early session do not require excessive reactions, and patience is especially crucial during sideways trading. Until clear signals emerge, reducing trading frequency is the best approach to avoid eroding your capital through frequent transactions.

4. Strictly adhere to trading discipline
Set clear buy and sell points in advance, and do not sell until the target price is reached; patiently wait if the psychological price is not met. During the chaotic phase of sideways consolidation, maintaining a cash position and observing is the best strategy.

5. The wisdom of following the trend
Look for buying opportunities during bearish pullbacks and consider taking profits during bullish surges. Never go against the trend; only by following the market rhythm can profits continue to grow.

6. Contrarian thinking determines outcomes
Stay clear-headed when the market is euphoric and rational when panic spreads. When everyone is rushing to sell, it is often the right time to find golden buying points for quality targets.

7. Be patient while waiting for clarity
In the face of a consolidating market, what is most needed is patience. Maintain a wait-and-see approach until the direction is clear, and act decisively after a breakout signal appears; this is more important than blind trading.

8. Recognize the signals of a market's end
A sudden surge after a long period of sideways trading often signals that the market is nearing its end. At this time, avoid greed; taking profits timely to secure gains is a wise move.
Investing in cryptocurrency is fundamentally based on technique, but mindset is key. These eight ironclad rules may seem simple, but only those who can strictly implement them at all times can truly survive in this market and achieve stable returns. @方舟掘金

This morning, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, triggering widespread panic in the market. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over, but rather a technical adjustment caused by a temporary tightening of liquidity.

Tightening liquidity is the main reason
This decline is primarily influenced by two major factors:
The U.S. Treasury issued $163 billion in bonds, temporarily absorbing a large amount of market liquidity.
Federal Reserve officials stated that "they are not considering rate cuts for now," breaking the market's expectations for easing.
Under this dual pressure, high-risk assets are the first to be affected, and a chain reaction has occurred in the cryptocurrency market.

Fundamentals remain unchanged
It is important to clarify that:
This adjustment is unrelated to Bitcoin's fundamentals.
The foundation of the bull market remains solid; it is just a short-term "loss of blood."
Panic selling has instead created a rare entry opportunity for investors.

Investment strategies
At this critical juncture, it is recommended to take the following measures:
Stay calm and refuse to cut losses.
The chips from panic selling are precisely what institutions are looking for.
Historical data shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong rebounds.

Build positions in batches to average costs.
Adopt a strategy of buying in batches, adding to positions every time there is a 5% drop.
Avoid heavy one-time investments, leaving enough ammunition for future opportunities.

Pay attention to policy signals.
Closely monitor subsequent statements from the Federal Reserve.
Any easing signal could become a catalyst for a rebound.

Market outlook and layout opportunities
From a technical perspective, this wave of liquidity crisis may very well present a golden opportunity. Once the fiscal side begins to release liquidity and market sentiment improves, a V-shaped rebound is likely.

For specific coins, the recent repeated fluctuations are indeed typical tactics used by large players to unload their positions. Before the impact of the CZ incident is fully digested, it is advised that investors remain cautious.
The market is always cyclical; every deep squat is for a higher jump. Stay rational in times of panic and cautious in times of greed—that is the way to survive through the bull and bear markets.
The current market environment precisely provides a rare layout window for prepared investors. Stay patient, adhere to discipline, and the market in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.

The internal divisions of the Federal Reserve intensify, and expectations for a rate cut in December change! How should cryptocurrency investors respond?

The uncertainty of policy paths has become the biggest source of risk in the market.

Last night, the chaotic signals released by the Federal Reserve made it difficult for the market to find peace. Serious divisions among policymakers regarding the interest rate path have led to a sharp cooling of expectations for a rate cut in December.

Divergence of policymakers' positions

The hawkish camp insists that inflationary pressures have not been completely alleviated, fearing that an early rate cut could reignite inflationary pressures.
The dovish camp warns that maintaining high interest rates could harm the labor market, leading to an increased risk of a hard landing in the economy.

This core contradiction has put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma—struggling to balance between controlling inflation and ensuring employment.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market
Fluctuations in rate cut expectations directly affect market liquidity expectations:
✅ If the rate cut path is maintained: liquidity improvement will benefit risk assets.
❌ If the rate cut is delayed: the market may face new pressures of capital outflow.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement has further heightened market doubts: "There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding whether to cut rates in December."

Investor response strategies
During this period of policy ambiguity, it is recommended to adopt the following strategies:
Maintain position flexibility.
Avoid heavy bets when the direction is unclear.
Keep sufficient cash on hand to wait for clearer policies.
Focus on key data indicators.
Closely track core data such as CPI and non-farm employment.
These data will directly impact Federal Reserve decisions.

Historical experience shows that periods of policy transition are often accompanied by increased market volatility, but they also breed new opportunities. At this stage:

Short-term volatility may increase, but the medium to long-term trend still depends on the fundamentals.
Once policy uncertainty is resolved, the market usually welcomes directional choices.

The market is never short of opportunities; it only lacks the patience to wait for them. When the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clear, investors who dare to act will reap substantial rewards. @方舟掘金

Just called my friend Luo Dai An, and then inserted 60 points, awkward #ETH

Last night, Yitai continued to decline, reaching a low of 3556. Currently, the bearish trend is still dominant, so I chose to do a rebound short with my friends, also taking down 80 points of profit from Yitai. For those who didn't keep up, I'm waiting for you #ETH

The current cryptocurrency market is dominated by widespread risk-averse sentiment, leading to a broad decline. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing technical selling pressure after crucial support levels were breached.
Bitcoin: has fallen below $108,000 and lost support from the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which have now turned into resistance levels.

Ethereum: is struggling around $3,700, trying to hold onto short-term support. Its 4-hour technical indicators show enhanced bearish momentum.

💡 BTC/USDT Trading Thoughts
Technical Status: Bitcoin's current key support is around $107,000. If the daily closing price is below this level, it may accelerate to $102,000 (the low of October).
Trading Strategy:
Short Position Opportunity: Consider gradually entering short positions in the range of $108,500 - $109,000, setting a stop loss above $109,300.
Target Position: The first target is $106,500; if it effectively breaks below, further down to the $106,000 - $107,000 area.

💡 ETH/USDT Trading Thoughts
Technical Status: Ethereum is testing the $3,700 support. If it fails to hold, the next key support level is around the 200-day EMA (approximately $3,608).
Trading Strategy:
Short Position Opportunity: If the price rebounds to the $3,760 - $3,800 range with signs of resistance, consider entering a small short position.
Target Position: The main target is in the $3,600 - $650 range. If it strongly breaks below, further down to the $3,500 level.
Key Resistance: $3,830 is an important resistance level recently.

Be sure to control single position size, avoid heavy trading, and strictly enforce stop-loss discipline.