Kirill Gaitan l PROFIT_PILOT

#BTC #ETH
The market reacted to the latest escalation of the Iran-West military conflict in an unusual way ⚔️🌍
Several Middle Eastern countries closed their airspace ✈️🚫

📉 Oil: initially +3% after opening, then -10%
📉 Gold also declined
📈 Risky assets — indices and cryptocurrencies — rose:

* Bitcoin +3% ₿
* Ether +6% ⚡️

All this suggests that the market does not yet believe in further escalation.
Otherwise, we would have seen a reverse reaction in assets 🔄

📊 We have to adapt as we go and work from the facts.

🟢 Yesterday, I opened a speculative long position on Bitcoin — today there is a partial payoff.

As I said in today's video:

* An important zone for Bitcoin is 105K 🔥
* For Ethereum, it is 2400 🔥
There is a lot of liquidation and liquidity concentrated there 💣💰

📌 We may trade below these levels for some time.
In case of a breakout:
🎯 BTC targets — 110K
🎯 ETH targets — 2700–2800
$BTC $ETH

Key points from Powell's press conference. 
The Fed kept rates unchanged: 4.25–4.50%

Powell:
– The rate schedule is “not set in stone” and depends on data
– “Significant” inflation growth is expected
– We need to “wait and see” — we are monitoring the situation closely
– Tariffs will raise prices and slow growth
– Dilemma: jobs vs. prices — balance is important

Labor market: no mass layoffs, but weak growth in new jobs.

Fed forecast:
– GDP ≈ 1.4%, unemployment ~4.5%, inflation ≈ 3% in 2025
– 2 rate cuts in 2025, then a slower pace

What is important: there is no urgency to cut rates, geopolitics is increasing uncertainty, the market will hold on to new data.

Hey guys,
⚠️ The crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed meeting, but a much tougher factor is looming on the horizon — the possibility of the US entering into direct military conflict with Iran.

🗣️ Yesterday's statement by Trump heightened tensions: he gave Iran 48 hours to sign an agreement, otherwise escalation is possible. It is clear that there is no real plan to resolve the conflict, and the situation is likely to only worsen.

📉 Against this backdrop, if the market consensus remains negative after the financial close closer to Friday, we can expect increased pressure and a move into correction zones. The minimum targets in such a scenario are:
🔻 #BTC — Reload Zone 1: 97K–95K
🔻 #ETH — Reload Zone 1: 2100–2000

This is the baseline scenario, assuming increased geopolitical negativity + a possible hawkish signal from the Fed.

🚀 In the case of an alternative scenario — if the market is positive, for example, a signal to pause interest rates or a temporary easing of the conflict — then we can consider a scenario of breaking through the upper limits of consolidation.

📈 Important areas to watch in a bullish scenario:
🟢 BTC — a breakout of 106K opens the way higher
🟢 ETH — a breakout of 2700 and consolidation above — a signal for continued growth

🧠 Important: let's not rush to conclusions before the financial results and geopolitical developments. The market can go in any direction, but the levels are marked — and we will react to them.

$BTC $ETH

$ETH #DCA

🙋‍♂️ Hello, everyone.

💡Over the past month, this coin has quietly transformed from a shield into a promising asset, santiment is changing, and that is a positive development. 

📈 The price has risen significantly from local lows and is now in a local sideways trend. Last week, we saw an attempt to break through, but the price returned to its previous range. 

💰 I am buying more at $70 for the past week as part of my DCA portfolio. 

💼 Of course, I'm talking about Ethereum. I plan to increase its share in my DCA portfolio to 30%.

🖋️ As a reminder, I allocate $10 daily to invest in cryptocurrency and make purchases once a week. The results and portfolio are publicly available.

🚀 If this was helpful, subscribe so you don't miss anything, and give it a thumbs up 👍

As always, at the beginning of the week, we summarize and analyze the crypto market.
🕒 The last review was on May 19, in which I said that there were interesting areas for trading on Bitcoin from the boundaries of the sideways movement, there was an excellent entry point, and the price gave about 8% with a breakout.
For Ethereum, I mentioned strong resistance at 2800, where the price is still trading with minimal volatility.
Liquidation map:
It is important to understand the important liquidation zones where price movement may accelerate.
BTC is at 102K on the bottom and 108K on the top.
ETH is 2.43K at the bottom and 2.65K at the top.
💼 ETF market:
There was increased interest in Ethereum among funds.
Bitcoin ETF net flow for June 2–6: -131.60 million USD
Ethereum ETF net flow for June 2–6: +281.30 million USD
⛓️ On-chain metrics:
The Bitcoin network saw a continued outflow from CEX exchanges, while the Ethereum network
Open interest in Ethereum derivatives is also more stable, which indicates some consolidation and preparation for a strong movement.
🌐 Macroeconomics:
The ongoing tariff wars between China and the US are causing capital to become nervous and buy defensive assets.
🧮 Statistics
This week, attention will be focused on Wednesday's CPI data and Thursday's PPI data and unemployment figures.
⚡ Crypto Metrics
The M2 global liquidity index is showing a rebound, increasing the total amount of money in the system, with crypto assets Bitcoin and Ether following suit with a certain time lag. Therefore, we may be in for a good time for the crypto market ahead.
💡 Forecast:
$BTC :
The price has broken through the downtrend, and with the formation of a higher low, we can expect continued growth, with the main resistance zones at 108 and 110K. Key support is at 100K.
$ETH :
The price is still trading sideways, and if it breaks through the upper boundary, there is a good chance of seeing strong growth. Resistance is at 2750-2800, and key support is at 2350.

$UNI #DCA

🙋‍♂️ Hey guys.

💡 This cryptocurrency broke the downtrend, and came out of consolidation.

📈 Locally, the price has formed a W pattern, which may lead to a new round of growth. 
UNI is the locomotive of the entire DEFI sector and this trend remains in the crypto top 5.

💰 I'm buying up $70 more from last week as part of the DCA portfolio .

🖋️ As a reminder, I allocate $10 daily to cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available.

🚀 If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction 👍

Results of the week 📅

Last week bitcoin and ethereum generally followed the forecast that I voiced back on May 5. 
Bitcoin in case of breakdown of 100 move towards 105K (low supply zone). 
Efirium surprised and gave an entry point when breaking the 1850 zone, as a result the price reached 2700 for the first time since February.

ETF 💰

Bottom line:
* Bitcoin spot ETF: +608.4 million dollars
* Ethereum spot ETF: +$41.8 million
Bitcoin continues to be a liquidity magnet and the trend continues.

Onchain metrics 📊

Ethereum is seeing increased withdrawals from CEX exchanges. Which indirectly confirms the accumulation of position by large market participants. 

Reserves of exchanges are at historic lows. 

Liquidation zones 🚨

For bitcoin, the important reversal zones on the liquidation maps are: from below - 99,500, from above - 106,000. The breakdown of these levels can accelerate the price movement ⚡. 
In ethereum, the key zones are: from below - 2300, from above - 2550. Their breakdown can also significantly strengthen the dynamics 📊.

Macroeconomics 🌍

Markets may react to data on military action, including risks of conflict between India and Pakistan 💥. The impact of US tariff policy, especially on China, remains. A lower TGA balance sheet over the summer will also have a significant impact on risk assets 📉.

Macro statistics 📈

Key macro data will be released on Thursday and could impact volatility 📋.

Forecast 🔮

Efirium has hit strong resistance 2500-2800, correction may continue and trend reset zone 2100-2000 where price may come down, it will be a good zone to buy. The next zone is 1800, from where the last run started, but now it is unlikely. 

Bitcoin is in a local sidewall, the breakdown of which will show the direction for the local trend. 
In such conditions, making any predictions is like flipping a coin. The most interesting trade from the boundaries of the sidewall - breakdowns, false breakdowns. 
In case of a breakdown of the sidewall, there is strong support around 98-100K.

$BTC $ETH

$XLM #DCA
🙋‍♂️ Hey guys.
💡 Stellar locally can work out the GIP pattern.
📈 Breakdown of the downtrend may start another wave of growth with targets 0.8-1.5$ .
💰 Buying up by 70$ from last week as part of DCA portfolio .
🖋️ I remind you that I allocate 10$ daily for investing in cryptocurrency and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available.
🚀 If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction 👍

🚀 Coinbase (COIN), the largest crypto exchange in the U.S., will join the S&P 500 index, replacing Discover Financial Services. Following the news, COIN shares rose 8% and are trading around $226.
📅 The listing will take effect before trading begins on May 19. Coinbase has a capitalization of $53 billion and went public on Nasdaq in April 2021 through a direct listing.
📊 In Q1 2025, Coinbase reported $527 million in adjusted earnings, meeting S&P 500 criteria. 🎯 Analyst Owen Lau raised the target to $388 and maintained a “buy” recommendation.
🤝 Coinbase recently agreed to buy derivatives exchange Deribit for $2.9 billion. Other crypto-related companies in the S&P 500 include Block, PayPal and Visa. 🚫 MicroStrategy is not included due to its smaller capitalization.

🔥 The alt market is overheated
Many altcoins gave +50-200% from the bottom.
Don't get euphoric and buy everything - it is in a bull market that most people lose.
⚠️ Common mistakes:
- Cross margin and the entire deposit in circulation
- Futures without a plan (I'll be lucky)
- Buying “fallen” illiquid - no one may need it.
- Ignoring 30-50% profit in anticipation of “X's” and life-changing money
Keep your cool. That's a strategy too. 🧠

🌐 Results of Powell's press conference (Fed, May 7, 2025):

Rates unchanged: 4.25-4.5%.

Economy strong, but risks are rising: inflation and unemployment.

Trump's tariffs could exacerbate inflation and slow growth.

Fed ignores political pressure, decisions are data driven.

Forecast: 2 rate cuts in 2025 if data confirms.

Inflation expectations stable, markets volatile but no panic.

The week's results on the crypto market and macroeconomics 📊
Bitcoin and ether
Bitcoin reached the area around $98,000 but did not start a correction, returning to the sideways. Ether also remained in the same 1750-1850 range, without a breakout. Both cryptocurrencies are now in the “bad zone” for active trading - better to use long-term strategies (DCA, HODL) 🛑📉.
ETF inflows
About $1.8 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs over the week - a great result in recent months 💰. Ethereum ETF recorded positive inflows for the first time in a long time - $107 million 📈.
Onchain metrics
Outflows from centralized exchanges for BTC and ETH are significant. Leverage has reached two-year highs, especially for ether - this increases the risks of sharp drops when important levels are broken ⚠️.
Macroeconomics and geopolitics
Risks of escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as trade friction between China and the US remain the main drivers of 🌍🔥 volatility. TGA balance sheet is expected to decline in summer, which may affect the dynamics of risk assets 📉.
Macro statistics for the week
Important events: PMI on Monday, Fed rate decision on Wednesday (expected unchanged), initial jobless claims on Thursday 📅.
Ether Forecast
Consolidation in the 1750-1850 range, with no obvious triggers for a breakdown. Growth is possible with positive news, but in general - a bearish flag with the risk of a decline to 1650 🐻.
Bitcoin Forecast
The price has broken through $98,000, but volumes are down, there are signs of a possible correction. The key support is $94,500-95,000. Losing it could lead to a drop to $90,000 and lower to $85,000. A consolidation above $95,000 will open the way to $100,000 and higher. Trading now is risky, long term strategies are better 📉📈.

📊Seasonal dynamics of major crypto assets for May.
🪙Bitcoin - for bitcoin, May was a good month and closed 64% of the time in the plus side, with an average return of 11.5%
🪙Ethereum - for ether, the month closed historically above the open in 56% of cases, with an average return of 38.5%.
I remember a few major market crashes in May, but we were at the highs then, at this point the market has started to rise, but after a 70-80% crash it's dust. Ideally, I would like to see bitcoin sticking near 100K in May and a gradual decline in dominance, to transfer some liquidity to ether and alta. What do you think awaits us in May?
#Seasonality $BTC $ETH

A lot of text, average hamsters pass by as it is not possible for them to cope with so much.
As always, at the beginning of the week we summarize and analyze the crypto market.
Part 1
🕒 Last week I expected bitcoin to continue local growth with targets 90-92K and further growth was questionable due to strong supply. The scenario was realized and the targets were reached.
On ether the important zone of 1.75K, breakdown of which will give the way up, the breakdown occurred and the price became sideways over the past resistance, which has now turned into a support zone.
Liquidation Map:
We need to understand important liquidation zones where there could be acceleration in price movement.
BTC bottom 90.6K and top 97.5K strong Long skew, which I don't like.
ETH bottom 1.5K and top 1.9K
💼 ETF Market:
Funds showed strong inflows into assets, especially bitcoin.
Total for the period April 21-25, 2025:
* Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$3 billion USD
* Ethereum Spot ETF: +157 million USD
⛓️ Onchain Metrics:
The bitcoin and ether network saw a strong withdrawal of bitcoin from CEX exchanges, which could indicate a position set. The leverage ratio reached a 2-year high, indicating increased risk-taking by market participants, especially for etherium.
Open interest in derivatives is showing a rebound, but not that much.
🌐 Macroeconomics:
The current week is very important for the markets as it could significantly affect the probabilities of rate cuts and other measures by the Fed's financial regulator.
The tariff wars between China and the US that are ongoing are making capital nervous and buying up defensive assets. Most likely this trend will continue and risk assets will remain under pressure in the coming weeks. $BTC $ETH

$XRP #DCA  

🙋‍♂️ Hey guys.

💡 On the back of the news that CME Group officially announced the launch of XRP futures trading, the early front of this event has started and the price has started to rise. 

📈 The price returned above the important 2.15 zone, which could potentially lead to the development of a local HYP pattern with targets of 2.8-2.9$.

💰 Buying up by 70$ from last week as part of the DCA portfolio . 

🖋️ Recall that I allocate $10 daily for cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available.

🚀 If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction 👍

Quick cryptometrics update.

Total crypto market capitalization increased from $2.5 trillion to $2.9 trillion 📈.
Bitcoin's dominance is declining, but the trend is holding at 65-70% 🟠; a breakout of the uptrend is needed for a reversal.
Efirium is testing downtrend, in sideways ⚖️; need 8% breakout with consolidation for reversal.
USDT dominance broke uptrend, down to 5% 🟢, which may support cryptoasset price gains; USDT capitalization is $145 billion 💵, 
total altcoin capitalization rises to $900 billion.
Altcoins (without top 10) formed W-pattern, broke downtrend, but traded sideways 🟪; need consolidation above $250 bln for growth.
Dollar Index is recovering, expected sideways around 100 in next 1-2 months 💹

🙋‍♂️ Hey guys!

Reading this review requires a background above the standard hamster 🧠 - most will find it complicated due to the terms and volume of text 📚. Many lack probabilistic thinking 🎲 and just want to be shown the direction of the market ☝️👇.

As always, we summarize and analyze the crypto market at the beginning of the week.

🕒 Last week the growth scenario on BTC was realized: after the breakdown of 83K I expected the movement to 90-92K when overcoming 85K. On ETH the resistance zone of 1.7-1.75K remained unbroken, there was no entry point for longing.

Liquidation map:
BTC: key zones are 85K (bottom), 89.5K (top).
ETH: 1.5K (bottom), 1.78K (top).
Price movement acceleration is possible in these zones.

💼 ETF market:
Institutionals continue to reduce positions.
Net inflows:
- Bitcoin: +10.7 million USD
- Ethereum: -32.3 million USD
Bitcoin remains the main benchmark and liquidity center.

⛓️ Onchain metrics:
No significant changes, reserves on CEX at lows.

🌐 Macroeconomics:
Fed chief noted the strength of the economy, market expects first rate cut with 70% probability in June, only 10% in May.
US-China tariff wars continue, supporting demand for defensive assets and pressuring risk assets. The trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks.

🧮 Statistics:
April 23 - business activity indexes: slowdown is positive for crypto, but the effect is short-term.
April 24 - unemployment claims: a deteriorating labor market will also support risk assets.

💡 Forecast:

BTC:
Local uptrend, longing priority. Targets are 90-92K, 95K is questionable due to strong supply in this zone. Supports are 85-83K.

ETH:
Resistance 1.7-1.75K, if broken - growth to 1.9-2K. Supports - 1.5-1.4K. A trigger is needed for growth, for example, approval of a staking-ETF.

In general, the market remains bullish, but further growth is limited and requires new drivers. $BTC $ETH

Starknet ($STRK ) is now deep in the reset zone - the coin is down 95% from its 2024 highs, which is typical for altcoins with potential 📉. The trend remains bearish and fully correlated with Ethereum, as Starknet is the L2 for ETH 🦾. The price may still decline down to $0.10, but I expect a quick consolidation and break of the downtrend 🔄.

Since April, a significant increase in open interest has been recorded - this indicates an influx of new contracts and increased attention to the coin 📊. I am not talking about short-term deals, but about a strategic approach: it is important to understand the scenario in advance and be ready to move.

When there are signs of reversal - impulse growth, formation of V- or W-pattern, breakdown of trend line and exit from consolidation - it is important to get into this movement 🚀. Volumes on the coin are very high, so the growth may be sharp and most will not have time to enter. Key zones: $0.20, $0.30 (100 MA), $0.50. Return to $0.30 is the first target on a reversal 💡.

Important from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech:
📌 markets are likely to remain volatile.
📌 he believes there will be a loosening of banking regulations on cryptocurrencies.
📌 Cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more popular and a legal framework for stable coins is a good idea.
Didn't say anything new, but didn't add any negativity and thanks for that.

Believe that Starknet will give ics in 2025? $STRK