PhyrexNi

On Friday, former U.S. President Biden was diagnosed with prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5), and has experienced bone metastasis.

This information has just been revealed.

The lower the liquidity, the greater the probability of sharp rises and falls.

Just now, while checking Tether information, I found that the USDT issued on Tron has risen to the first position, surpassing 75.7 billion USD, leading the second place Ethereum by 1.2 billion USD. It is worth noting that Tether has issued a total of 151.2 billion USD in USDT, meaning that the quantity of stablecoins on Tron has exceeded 50% of the total USDT issuance.

In the past, this position was always held by Ethereum. I didn't even notice when USDT on Tron started to increase so much. I originally thought that after the transaction fees on TRC20 were raised, the number of users would decrease, but unexpectedly, not only did it not decline, but it also rose to the first position.

Recently, the United States has been committed to the compliance of stablecoin demand, and both parties are discussing stablecoin legislation. Even the Trump family is issuing stablecoins, and USDC is collaborating with Binance. From various signs, it seems likely that the coming year will be a breakout year for stablecoins, making it a competitive area for more compliant stablecoins on that chain, likely a battleground for major public chains.

Currently, USDT is widely used on Tron, while USDC has the highest issuance on Ethereum, with less than 40 billion USD. Apart from that, there is also some issuance on Solana, but it is less than a third of Ethereum's. Therefore, it can be seen that the current competition for stablecoins is still likely to be between Tron and Ethereum.

Considering Trump's nature as a businessman, if Justin continues to spend money to hire a consultant (USD1 is issued by World Liberty Financial, and Justin himself is a consultant for WLFI), it might really become interesting.

Just now, while checking Tether information, I found that the USDT issued on Torn has risen to the first position, surpassing 75.7 billion USD, leading by 1.2 billion USD over the second place, Ethereum. It's important to note that the total issuance of USDT by Tether is 151.2 billion USD, which means that the quantity of stablecoins on Torn exceeds 50% of the total USDT issuance.

Previously, this position was always held by Ethereum, and I didn’t notice when Torn’s USDT quantity became so high. I originally thought that after the transaction fees increased on TRC20, the number of users would decline, but unexpectedly, it not only didn’t decline but actually rose to the first position.

Recently, the United States has been working on the compliance of stablecoin demand, and both parties are discussing stablecoin legislation. Even the Trump family is issuing stablecoins, and USDC is collaborating with Binance. From various signs, it is likely to be a year of explosion for stablecoins, so more compliant stablecoins will probably run on that chain, which should be a battleground for major public chains.

Currently, USDT is already heavily present on Tron, while the largest issuance of USDC is on Ethereum, with less than 40 billion USD. In addition, there is some on Solana, but the issuance is still less than one-third of Ethereum’s, so we can see that the current stablecoin competition is most likely still between Torn and Ethereum.

Considering Trump’s nature as a businessman, if Justin continues to spend money to hire a consultant (USD1 is issued by World Liberty Financial, and Justin is actually a consultant for WLFI), it could really get interesting.

Bitcoin nearly broke through to $106,000 today, but there is no clear reason showing why $BTC can rise so happily. Looking at the detailed data on TradingView, BTC's rise started at 9:37 PM Beijing time.

This time coincided with the speech by the 79th U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Besant. Of course, some may say this is a forced angle, but at least this is the closest reason I found for the rise.

So what did Besant say that drove the rise of Bitcoin?

The main point was the information about U.S. debt and GDP. As we all know, after Friday's close, Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. This caused all three major rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. from Aaa to Aa1, which is a blow to confidence in U.S. bonds, and the main reason for the downgrades was indeed the "U.S. debt."

Therefore, Besant had to come out during the holiday to boost the market, especially since the U.S. stock and bond markets would open on Monday. First, Besant talked about the GDP issue, believing that the U.S. economy is developing very well, and with the resolution of tariff issues, the GDP growth rate will exceed the debt growth rate. In simple terms, the U.S. will not fall into a debt crisis.

The key point is that Besant stated that the goal of U.S. stocks is not to decouple from China, but to open markets and restore balance. The U.S. will continue trade with China, especially in non-strategic goods, and at lower tariff levels. Meanwhile, efforts will be made to bring back key industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel to protect U.S. national security interests.

He also emphasized that Trump's grand plan could alleviate the burdens on working families and businesses, promoting economic growth. He believes that tax cuts would lead to deflation, thereby combating inflation and restoring the U.S.'s energy dominance.

He announced that Trump secured $2 trillion in investment commitments in the Middle East, which will drive U.S. jobs, innovation, and long-term growth. Of course, there are subsequent issues like illegal immigration, but their relation to the economy is becoming less significant. At this point in the discussion, it should be the high point of $BTC's rise because the market indeed hopes to believe that Trump can govern the U.S. better.

If I’m not mistaken, this is the main reason Bitcoin is able to rise, almost stemming from investors' trust in the Trump administration rather than from BTC's own narrative. More importantly, the U.S. stock market is currently closed, liquidity is not very good, and the trading volume compared to a traditional weekend hasn’t significantly increased.

Of course, I’m not saying BTC will drop next, but BTC's fluctuations will still be closely aligned with the U.S. economy, politics, tariffs, monetary policy, etc. The current rise may not truly represent a very good outcome in the short term. Of course, I could be wrong; this is not a reason for trading.

Currently, BTC is still event-driven.

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As GDPNow's expectations for U.S. GDP in the second quarter continue to rise, and with the suspension of tariffs on China, JPMorgan no longer expects the U.S. to enter an economic recession in 2025 and has lowered its inflation forecast.

This is both a good thing and not necessarily a good thing; a resilient economy gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to ensure that tariffs will only have a one-time impact on inflation, while rising GDP and consumption could indeed temporarily boost inflation.

As of now, the probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in June has risen to 91.7%, and the probability of not lowering rates in July has returned to 63.2%.

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Although the development of AI focuses on data, as once the data is tampered with, all model training and inference results become invalid. To address this issue, a Web3 startup called Space and Time, backed by Microsoft's M12, is attempting to solve this problem.

The company decodes and organizes data from mainstream blockchains through a verifiable data indexer and ensures that both the data itself and the query process have not been tampered with using zero-knowledge proof technology, thus providing analysts and developers with reliable on-chain data support.

The ZK co-processor Proof of SQL can turn any database into a verifiable database, ensuring that AI model training is not subjected to 'data pollution.' To reduce the usage threshold, Space and Time has also created an AI chatbot named Houston based on GPT-4, allowing users to directly query data without the need for complex SQL scripts, and the query results can automatically generate dashboards or be used for model training.

Additionally, Space and Time has partnered with the globally renowned auditing firm FTI Technology to test applications in two scenarios:

First, using machine learning models to assist in identifying anomalous behaviors on-chain.

Second, verifying whether the entire data analysis process is traceable and trustworthy.

FTI clearly pointed out that if the training data itself is inaccurate, it will lead to erroneous judgments or missed reporting of suspicious transactions, which is exactly the shortcoming of traditional AI in compliance scenarios. Space and Time's architecture is entirely built on Microsoft Azure, utilizing not only the OpenAI API but also Azure’s virtual machines, security components, networks, storage, and other full-stack services. It has already launched on Azure Marketplace, where customers can deploy and use it directly.

In summary, what Space and Time offers is not just a blockchain data platform, but an infrastructure that provides a 'verifiable data root' for AI, especially suitable for scenarios such as financial risk control, auditing, and on-chain analysis that have extremely high demands for data credibility.

Every time a discount coupon is released, the inventory will be cleared within a few hours. This time it’s a 25% discount, and the actual amount received is 323 Singapore dollars. The current exchange rate is about less than 1,760 RMB. Although it's still a bit expensive compared to domestic prices, it's already a good price in 🇸🇬. I even specially applied for a MASTERCARD credit card. Thanks to @Trader_S18 for helping me save a lot of money. The airport duty-free shop also offers free home delivery. 👍

Within two hours of the Moody's downgrade event, the supply of $BTC on exchanges slightly decreased, and no signs of panic have been observed for the time being. The substantive market reaction is expected to occur after the US stock market opens next Monday.

Moody's downgraded the United States' credit rating from 'Aaa' to 'Aa1' on Friday, citing that debt and interest expenses are 'significantly higher than those of similarly rated sovereign nations'.

Announcing a strategy of my own, which is purely gambling. I do not recommend others to follow.

I have sold $MSTR at an average price of $411 and am preparing to buy $Coin tomorrow, with the logic being to bet on Coin's rise on Monday, but with prerequisites.

1. Coin must drop nearly 10% today.
2. Coin must drop more than 5% tomorrow.
3. If achieved, buy Coin before the market closes tomorrow.
4. Sell at the market open on Monday, without holding on.

The main gamble is that Coin has been Selling The News in the last two days, and if it drops sufficiently in these two days, there will be expectations of a rise when it officially lists on NASDAQ on Monday.

I ran it through AI, and most stocks tend to rise on their first day on NASDAQ, but the increase is not high, around less than 1%, due to Selling the News, and then there is a high possibility of a decline the next day.

What I am betting on is two points:

1. Continuous decline for two days, dropping back to the oversold area.
2. Opening rise of more than 1%.

The reason is that the average increase after being announced on NASDAQ is 8%, but Coin has risen nearly 30% in two days. Investors will experience FOMO for the first cryptocurrency stock and the first cryptocurrency stock to list on NASDAQ.

What I need to do is wait; if the drop increases in these two days, then the probability and extent of the rise on Monday will also increase, so no holding on, of course, this expected rise is not high, it is purely a gamble.

Moreover, I am not sure that I will definitely buy, so I do not recommend others to follow.

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Watching Powell's speech, it seems there won't be time for a simultaneous interpretation. Let's listen to the main points first and then discuss.

The PPI data is quite impressive, not only has the annual rate decreased, but it is also below market expectations. The PCE data at the end of the month should be good, and both the annual and monthly rates are down. This data is remarkable; the CPI data at least shows a decrease in the annual rate while the monthly rate increased, whereas the PPI is experiencing deflation. This data is quite interesting. Moreover, both core PPIs have also decreased.

Before the PPI data, CME's expectation for no rate cut in July was 63.3%. I just refreshed it again, and there hasn't been any change. Theoretically, the decrease in PPI should increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July.

However, the Federal Reserve's expectations for inflation will still depend more on the implementation of tariffs. Although this inflation data is good, it is difficult to fundamentally change the Fed's expectations for inflation; retail data is even more important.

The market's expectation was a 0% increase, but the result announced was 0.1%. Although the announced value is still less than the previous value, at least it shows positive growth. I checked the sentiment of $BTC, and it seems to be quite good, but there hasn’t been any significant change in the US stock market. We should observe more before making any conclusions.

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Today I saw many friends sharing #Alpha's $NXPC and I felt quite frustrated. I only have 175 points, definitely not meeting the requirements, and there was no lucky draw for the positions. Then I just opened #Binance and found that there was a lot more money in my spot account. Upon checking, I realized there were some NXPC, and they were distributed to me.

I directly asked @sisibinance if it was a mistake, and she told me to check the announcement. That’s when I discovered it was actually an airdrop from HODLers. About 1,000 $BNB can give a value of 5,000 USD, which is amazing. It's been a long time since I've seen such good returns.

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From the market capitalization of USDT and USDC over the past week, the data is somewhat better than the previous week, at least the market capitalizations of USDT and USDC have both increased. Although this week USDC's market capitalization has not yet returned to its historical peak, it has still increased by 200 million USD, indicating that there are still investors preparing to enter the market.

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According to the data on the distribution of BTC holdings in the last week, high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 BTC are continuing to buy, while small-scale investors holding less than 10 BTC are continuing to sell.

This data also aligns with our consistent judgment that most BTC is still flowing into the hands of high-net-worth investors who are prepared to hold for the long term. This group of investors tends to be more focused on the long-term trends of BTC and less concerned about short-term price fluctuations.

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Discrepancy Among Long-Term Holders

Long-term holders with positions over 155 days are continuing to buy. When we looked last week, there was still nearly 200,000 BTC space between the current long-term holders' purchases and the historical high point. However, just one week later, the BTC held by long-term holders is now less than 50,000 BTC away from the historical peak.

This data better illustrates that the recent uptick in purchases is not only from short-term investors but also from more long-term investors buying in. The last time the supply was close to 1.43 million BTC, long-term holders had already started moving towards distribution.

This indicates that more long-term holders believe we have reached a price peak, having started to exit at $62,300, while now, when the price is still only $5,000 away from the historical high, long-term holders are continuing to accumulate rather than choosing to exit.

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The exchange's stock still remains one of the most important pieces of data. The data shows that even though the price of BTC has risen above $105,000, the Bitcoin stock on exchanges continues to show signs of leaving the exchanges.

We have been discussing this situation for a long time, which represents that more investors remain optimistic about the long-term trend of BTC and have not chosen to exit due to short-term price fluctuations. Most investors are still choosing to buy.

However, there appears to be some divergence between spot buying and BTC spot ETF buying. In the spot market, we can see that the exchange's stock is continuously declining, but ETF investors have previously mentioned that in the last two weeks, purchasing power has reduced by more than half.

This also indicates that while traditional investors maintain expectations for BTC's trend, their buying is not very aggressive, whereas exchange investors are more prone to BTC FOMO. Therefore, for BTC to continue rising, in addition to exchange users, an increase in purchasing power from traditional users is also needed.

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So how much more can ETH rise?

If we look at it from a normal perspective, the current $BTC has returned to the levels seen in early February. If $ETH can also return to the early February level of $3,300, then, based on the current price, there is still a $700 upward potential for ETH.

Of course, this is not guaranteed and is still driven by liquidity and events. The premise is that there is no systemic risk in the U.S. stock market, and that both the U.S. stocks and BTC at least maintain a trend of oscillating upwards rather than downwards, for ETH to have a chance to reach such a position.

If systemic risks occur, such as an economic recession, then whether it's BTC or ETH, and whether it's the Nasdaq, S&P, or Russell 2000, they are all likely to retrace again.

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