PhyrexNi

Arizona passes the second Bitcoin reserve bill SB1373 with a vote of 37-19!

Both reserve bills have been sent to the governor for signature, leaving just the final step.

Arizona becomes the first state in the United States to pass Bitcoin strategic reserve legislation in both the House and Senate.

Next, it will be sent to the governor for signing to see if the governor approves.

At 4 AM Beijing time (1 PM Mountain Time), Arizona's SB1373 and SB1025 are set for their third reading, both of which involve strategic reserves (investments) related to $BTC. After the third reading, a vote may be initiated, though it's only a possibility, not a certainty. However, if a vote is initiated, it would be a significant event, which is why I mentioned not shorting before the results are out.

If it doesn't pass, it wouldn't be a huge deal since seven others have already been rejected. However, it seems that only one state, Utah, has been rejected at the final stage, so there is still a chance of success. If it does succeed, it would mark the first state in U.S. history to use state funds to purchase Bitcoin, which I believe is an epic positive development.

Of course, in terms of purchasing power, it cannot be compared to an ETF, but from a historical perspective, if the first state passes, the pressure on subsequent states will be significantly reduced. It's very likely that more states will adopt BTC as a strategic reserve and purchase BTC.

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If you just want to know what major events are happening in the United States, then @DeItaone is a very good choice. Often, the first thing I do every morning is check what he has posted.

I try to recommend an account that I personally follow every day, unrelated to trading.

If you just want to know what is happening at the White House, then @DeItaone is a very good choice. One of the first things I do every morning is check what he has posted.

I try to recommend an account that I'm following every day, which is unrelated to trading.

The wiring has become increasingly difficult. At least it was like this during the Trump administration.

Trump's statement is quite interesting. Some friends might remember that I previously mentioned that Trump's trump card is tax cuts. Now Trump has linked tax cuts with tariffs, which probably means using tax cuts to balance the inflation caused by tariffs, and it might even be a complete tax exemption, of course, this only applies to individuals with an annual income below $200,000.

He also believes that many companies are providing significant investments in the U.S. to reduce tariffs, which brings many new job opportunities, and this can also lower the unemployment rate.

PS: Can I interpret Trump's meaning that Americans with an annual income below $200,000 are considered low-income groups?

In reality, that's not the case. Traditionally, the low-income group in the U.S. usually refers to individuals earning between $30,000 and $50,000 annually. However, Trump's statement indeed sets the line at an annual income of $200,000, artificially expanding the definition of the middle and lower-income groups for political maneuvering. This allows more people (actually including upper-middle-class individuals, such as those earning between $100,000 and $200,000) to enjoy the benefits of tax cuts while gaining voter favor.

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I wanted to create this chart for the past couple of days, but I just didn't have the time. Today, I finally managed to finish it after returning home. This chart looks at Trump's tariff events through the timeline and the price trend of $BTC. It's clear to see that since January 20, Bitcoin's price has remained high, but it started to decline when Trump announced the tariffs and began to implement them (along with the U.S. stock market).

The lowest point was on April 9 when it was first announced in the morning that a 145% retaliatory tariff would be imposed on China, and then in the afternoon, it was announced that other countries would have their equivalent tariffs suspended for 90 days. Following this news, the overall risk market rose.

On April 11, Trump announced a temporary exemption from tariffs for certain electronic products, causing the risk market to rise again. However, due to Trump's expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, a decline occurred on April 20, leading to panic among investors and a significant drop in the U.S. stock market.

On April 23, Trump stated that he had no intention of firing Powell, which restored confidence in the market. Both the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin saw a significant increase.

This timeline clearly shows that since January, the entire market trend has been guided by Trump's policies, which are event-driven. This is also why it is crucial to pay closer attention to Trump's movements. Although we cannot say that everything has settled down yet, the market's focus has begun to shift away from tariffs.

Especially this week, the most important data is the U.S. GDP for the first quarter, so the upcoming short-term fluctuations may be significantly influenced by the GDP data. Then, there's the PCE data, which will be released one and a half hours after the GDP data on the same day. Although this data doesn't involve tariffs too much, it has already adjusted China's tariffs from 10% to 20% in March, so the PCE may reflect some changes, especially in the monthly PCE variations.

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It's really pushing people to curse; not everything is right just because it's criticized. I am also very dissatisfied with the lawsuit against Bitget, but that doesn't affect my disclosure of the current situation of the events as I know them. If saying the progress of the event is just flattering, isn't that too extreme? Who knew about it first and came out to confront it? You people who are just making sarcastic comments, who confronted it and made a statement? I might not be the first, but I will definitely be among the first to confront it. I've already done this kind of thing, so what do I have to flatter about?

I’ll say it again, what I am stating is the trend of the event developments that I have already grasped.

Some friends asked about the gap issue. Currently, the most recent gap for $BTC is between $91,970 and $92,525 below. Gaps are a matter of mysticism, but so far the short-term gaps for Bitcoin have all been filled. The gap near the bottom of $1,775 for $ETH (yellow) has been filled, and there are still two gaps remaining for the short term.

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According to information from @Bitcoin_Laws, the two Bitcoin reserve bills in Arizona will undergo a third reading at 12 AM Beijing time on Tuesday, with a possible final vote.

This could become the first completed state-level $BTC strategic reserve. If passed, it would definitely be an epic positive for BTC, so be mindful of this timing and exercise caution when shorting, as a failure to pass would have little impact, but if passed, it would be a historic moment.

I just saw a statistical report from the United States, from the Bank of America (BofA) Credit Investor Survey. By April 2025, the most concerning rankings for investors are:

1. Trade war
2. Recession
3. Inflation
4. US fiscal policy
5. Stagflation
6. Geopolitical risk
7. China
8. Debt sustainability
9. Rising interest rates
10. Oil prices
11. Commercial real estate (CRE)
12. Releveraging event risk
13. Europe

This data clearly shows that credit investors are most concerned about the trade war and recession (nearly 80% and 70% respectively), which is a significant increase compared to January, indicating that after a quarter, investors are more cautious about the impact of the trade war on the risk market (due to tariffs). Besides the trade war, there is also concern about a potential economic recession.

Ranked third is inflation, which has actually decreased somewhat, indicating that the pressure of inflation can be alleviated, but this alleviation is likely due to concerns about recession.

Therefore, the panic over the trade war (tariffs) may not have been fully released, while the worries about recession may increase as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains unchanged.

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Today I finally have some time to talk about the hottest @ethos_network recently. First, I would like to thank @tokenbrother TokenBrother丨The King of Tokens for the invitation link, allowing me to experience the hottest social platform right now.

Now, let's talk about what ETHOS is. Although I don't fully understand it and haven't used it much, I checked it out briefly. Essentially, it is quite similar to @KaitoAI, both primarily serve 'traffic groups.' Kairo is basically a traffic distribution platform, and its essence is 'doing big things with little money,' allowing traffic groups to share project content to increase exposure for the projects, then using small costs and rankings to boost everyone's 'mutual engagement.'

ETHOS is essentially similar, except that apart from buying and selling one's own 'IP,' the more important aspect is 'scoring.' The original intention of this scoring is to compensate for a mechanism of determining 'fake engagement' by anonymously scoring others. The higher the score, the higher the 'value' of this 'IP.' This demand is fundamentally quite good, as it can help discover excellent peers around you.

However, whether this can actually be of help is indeed a questionable issue. Moreover, for the genuine demand of traffic groups, the ultimate goal should not be TO C, but TO B. Of course, this might also relate to my initial exposure; spending more time observing may yield different feelings.

One aspect of ETHOS that I really complain about is the daily tasks, which require commenting on 15 people (right?), most of whom are unfamiliar faces. In this case, the choices are very limited: either skip (if unsure) or mindlessly click 'good.' After all, mutual engagement leads to friendships, while mutual stepping only creates enemies.

It's been just three days; I should ponder this a bit more. I do not like the idea of buying and selling my own 'IP,' nor do I bear any responsibility for profits or losses, and I do not recommend everyone to buy; just take a look. However, this topic operation approach of hunger marketing + concentrated exposure shows that the operational team at the back is quite knowledgeable about this industry. How long it can be sustained depends on everyone's interest.

Until 20:30 Beijing time on April 30, the market will remain event-driven, with the positive and negative effects of events determining the short-term direction of the risk market. However, from a longer-term perspective, GDP data may be the main reason affecting investors' risk appetite.

Currently, the forecast data shows a value below the previous 2%, with only a small fraction expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. Of course, the final data will primarily come from the U.S. Department of Commerce, and whether the final value is believed by everyone is not important, as long as the Federal Reserve and the White House believe it.

Today is the last trading day of the week, which has a significant impact on weekend sentiment. If U.S. stocks can continue to rise significantly, $BTC may perform well over the weekend. If U.S. stock sentiment declines, it will depend on how our Asian partners choose their direction.

Now is a suitable position to relax.

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The latest updated GDPNow data has again lowered the expected GDP for the United States in the first quarter, from -2.2% to -2.5%. I mentioned yesterday that Goldman Sachs has revised the U.S. first-quarter GDP down from 0.4% to 0.1%.

Tether (USDT) has acquired over 10% of the equity of Juventus Football Club, now holding 6.18% of the voting rights, becoming the major shareholder.

The tariff issue between China and the United States is being stretched to the limit.

United States: The White House is considering reducing tariffs on China to ease trade tensions. Tariffs could be lowered to a range between 50% and 65%, but Trump has not made a final decision yet.

China: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the U.S. is abusing tariffs, which has led to a decline in its global support and resulted in self-isolation.

United States: There is no timeline for talks with China; discussions must occur at a level below Trump and Xi Jinping.

United States: Trump stated that it’s fine if we don’t reach an agreement with China.

China: Urges the U.S. to show sincerity in dialogue, stating that all unilateral tariffs must be canceled to promote negotiations, denies reports of ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. as baseless, and emphasizes that any negotiations must be based on mutual respect and equality. It also adds that canceling U.S. tariffs is crucial for resolving the current tensions.

I looked at yesterday's daily financial report from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and the marked positions are the customs duties and excise taxes collected by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This data reflects the scale of U.S. trade tax revenue, with units in millions. The 'Today' figure is not for a single day but is the cumulative amount for the month, while the 'Month' represents the total data for that month.

The data indeed shows that $11.68 billion in tax revenue is the largest single-day amount in history, with some media interpreting this as a direct benefit of Trump's tariff policy, considering it an achievement brought by Trump. However, I do not agree with this perspective, as Trump's high tariffs have not been in place for very long.

These high figures may actually reflect other countries' concerns about upcoming high tariffs from the U.S., prompting them to enter the market early to avoid higher tariffs. This influx is likely to be a one-time event and does not truly reflect the data on tariff revenue.

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Just today, after the surge of $BTC, a gap in CME's Bitcoin futures has appeared again, between $91,970 and $92,730. Although a gap is somewhat of an esoteric concept, all short-term gaps have been filled for BTC.

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After reviewing the Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book, I summarized the current triple pressures facing the U.S. economy:

1. Increased economic uncertainty due to tariffs

2. General weakness in consumption and the service industry

3. Stable labor market trends but declining recruitment willingness

Overall, although the U.S. has not yet experienced a systemic recession, most regions hold a pessimistic outlook for the coming months, especially against the backdrop of Trump's tariffs and an unclear policy environment.