The PPI data is quite impressive, not only has the annual rate decreased, but it is also below market expectations. The PCE data at the end of the month should be good, and both the annual and monthly rates are down. This data is remarkable; the CPI data at least shows a decrease in the annual rate while the monthly rate increased, whereas the PPI is experiencing deflation. This data is quite interesting. Moreover, both core PPIs have also decreased.

Before the PPI data, CME's expectation for no rate cut in July was 63.3%. I just refreshed it again, and there hasn't been any change. Theoretically, the decrease in PPI should increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July.

However, the Federal Reserve's expectations for inflation will still depend more on the implementation of tariffs. Although this inflation data is good, it is difficult to fundamentally change the Fed's expectations for inflation; retail data is even more important.

The market's expectation was a 0% increase, but the result announced was 0.1%. Although the announced value is still less than the previous value, at least it shows positive growth. I checked the sentiment of $BTC, and it seems to be quite good, but there hasn’t been any significant change in the US stock market. We should observe more before making any conclusions.

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