As GDPNow's expectations for U.S. GDP in the second quarter continue to rise, and with the suspension of tariffs on China, JPMorgan no longer expects the U.S. to enter an economic recession in 2025 and has lowered its inflation forecast.

This is both a good thing and not necessarily a good thing; a resilient economy gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to ensure that tariffs will only have a one-time impact on inflation, while rising GDP and consumption could indeed temporarily boost inflation.