新垣奈奈

#币安神算子 #BinancePick #Bitcoin

This week, $BTC has been hovering above 80,000. The last 7 daily closes have all been above 80,000, and even the lowest day was 80.1k. It’s now at 80.2k, just 0.2% from the line.

Here’s the question: will the daily candle closing at 08:00 Beijing time on 10/31 close above or below 80,000?

AMZN and COIN report earnings after the market closes tonight. If sentiment in U.S. stocks shifts, crypto could wobble too, so I’m leaning ever so slightly toward above. The reasoning is simple: it hasn’t closed below this level in 7 days, so for now it’s holding as support. But it’s so close that one wick could break through. I’m not confident.

Which way are you betting? Just leave “above” or “below” in the comments.

Just my personal opinion, not advice. Fortune-teller points have no cash value.

Before the U.S. market opens tonight, everyone is focused on one thing: Google is down about 10% premarket.

CNBC calculated that if it closes down more than 9.77%, it would be the stock’s worst post-earnings day since going public in 2004. Binance $GOOGL perpetuals are also hovering around 288, down 11% over 24 hours.

At the same time, Microsoft is up 4% premarket. Both companies spent hundreds of billions on capex, but the market is only rewarding the one with better-looking cash flow. Morningstar, for its part, says Google’s AI value is being underestimated and has raised its fair value estimate to 450.

My take: don’t rush to judge in the first 15 minutes after the open. These kinds of gap-downs often bring a lot of volatility at first. Keep $MSFT on your radar too—tonight, it’s the comparison case for AI spending.

Do you think Google can close tonight down less than 5%? Share your thoughts in the comments.

#美股 #股票财报季 #Google

For personal observation only; not investment advice

#股票财报季 Apple reports after the market closes next Monday (early morning on November 3, Beijing time), but I’ve already started thinking about it.

Last quarter, revenue came in at 109.4 billion and EPS at 2.02, both above expectations. Yet the stock still fell 7.35% on earnings day. The good news had already been priced in—that’s happened with Apple before.

This time, the market expects revenue of around 113.4 billion and EPS of about 1.99. The company’s own guidance calls for 9%–11% growth, and expectations are already near the upper end of that range. The stock is now around 348, just a step away from its recent high of 351.8; 336 is this month’s low.

What I’m most interested in is whether higher memory prices will eat into gross margins, and what holiday-season guidance the new iPhone Duo will get. Good-looking numbers don’t necessarily mean the stock will rise—guidance is what matters.

What do you think: will good results send the stock up, or will it be another “sell the news” moment? $AAPL $QQQ #美股财报

Just my personal opinion, not a recommendation

For those staying up tonight, there are two big earnings reports: around 4 a.m. Beijing time, $AMZN and $COIN report at the same time, and both earnings calls are at 5.

First, what are options pricing in? AMZN about ±7.7%, COIN about ±6.8%. What happened last time? The day after AMZN's last earnings report (late July), it was up 15.3%; COIN was down 12.0% in late July.

For AMZN:
• Revenue expected at about 202.2 billion, EPS around 1.96
• Market expects AWS growth of 37%–38% (37% last quarter); BofA is betting on 40%
• Capital expenditure guidance for this year is about 220 billion. Will it be raised again?

For COIN:
• Revenue expected at about 1.2 billion, versus 1.87 billion in the same period last year
• EPS is expected to be a loss, but estimates vary widely, from -0.23 to +0.07
• Revenue has missed expectations for three consecutive quarters

My take: For AMZN, it's about whether AWS can hit 40%; for COIN, it's about whether trading revenue has kept pace with BTC's rebound. Binance perpetual futures currently price AMZN at around 253 and COIN at around 158.

I'll post again once the results are out to see how we did.

Which do you think will rise more at tomorrow morning's open: $AMZN or $COIN ?

This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice.
#股票财报季 #美股财报 #Amazon

#美股 #股票财报季 All three companies said last night, “We’re going to pour money into AI,” and the market gave them three different reactions.

Google plunged nearly 10% after hours. Its 2026 capital expenditures haven’t come down, and it said they’d increase significantly in 2027. Revenue came in at $127.6 billion, but profit fell short of expectations.
Microsoft rose around 3%. Azure growth was impressive, and spending was more restrained than people feared.
Oracle was the most surprising: it said its cash flow would turn positive in the future, and its shares shot up 11% during the session.

My take: the market isn’t saying you can’t spend money—it wants to know when that money will start paying off. The companies that can clearly explain when they’ll break even are the ones getting rewarded.

One other thing to keep in mind: the Fed held rates steady by a 10–2 vote, but two members voted for a rate hike, and talk of a hike in December is significant. Nasdaq futures were down 0.9%–1.4% this morning.$QQQ The perpetual contract hit a high of 731 yesterday, with 702 below as the low for the past 20 days. I’m keeping an eye on those two levels for now.

What do you think—when the market opens tonight, will Google keep sliding, or will buyers step in?$GOOGL $ORCL

Just my personal observations; this is not investment advice.

I always forget things like watering the farm and harvesting crops. If Agent #4446 could keep an eye on my farm in Farming Season, remind me when it’s time to harvest, and show me a preview of every action before carrying it out only after I approve, I’d feel much more at ease. Would you trust an Agent to manage your farm? Let’s chat in the comments! @Ptahtrade #ProofOfAgent ptah.trade/poa $BNB

If you chased into SpaceX on earnings day, 10/21, you’ve probably had a pretty uncomfortable week.

The earnings were genuinely good: revenue came in at $14.57 billion versus expectations of $12.97 billion, and the stock closed at $159.31 that day. But the next day, 1.3 billion shares were unlocked, and the stock fell 9.1% in a single day, giving back almost all of its gains. It closed at $145.23 last night, after hitting an intraday low of $142.13—just $2 above the $140 level everyone’s watching.

My take: buyers have stepped in at $140 twice this month, but I really can’t say whether they’ll hold the line a third time. If it holds, $150 is the first level to watch above. If it breaks below, there isn’t much meaningful support beneath it; the August low is around $108. Binance perpetual funding is still positive at 0.028%, which suggests plenty of people are still holding on. A decisive break below support could hurt.

The next clearly scheduled share unlock is December 8, so for now I’m more inclined to watch how it trades within the $140–$150 range.

Do you think $140 will hold or break? Which side are you on?

Just my personal observations, not investment advice.
$SPCX
#SpaceX #美股 #StockEarningsSeason

They reported on the same evening. $MSFT rose about 3% after hours, while $GOOGL fell nearly 9%—the exact opposite of what you’d expect.

Let’s check the results. GOOGL revenue was $127.6 billion (+25%), slightly below expectations of around $128.2 billion; adjusted EPS was $2.67 versus expectations of $3.02. More alarming, free cash flow was -$9.07 billion, negative for a second consecutive quarter, and the CFO said capital spending would increase significantly in 2027. Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion, while ad revenue of $82 billion came in $1.4 billion below expectations.

As for MSFT, yesterday I asked whether Azure could top 46%. It came in at 48%. Revenue of $92.28 billion and EPS of $4.89 both beat expectations ($90.6 billion / $4.73); free cash flow was $18.6 billion, about $10 billion above expectations; and capital spending was $45.2 billion, below even its own forecast of $50 billion.

My take: Both are spending big on AI, but right now the market is only rewarding companies that can earn back what they spend. Even 103% cloud growth couldn’t save GOOGL—the market is focused on cash flow, not growth. Binance perpetuals are now around 292.8 for $GOOGL and 548.8 for $MSFT .

If you had to pick just one to hold through year-end: MSFT or GOOGL?

Just my opinion, not a recommendation
#股票财报季 #美股财报 #Google

#山寨币 #Cryptocurrency

HYPE quietly rose nearly 5% today, and the reason is pretty interesting: Payward, Kraken’s parent company, says it wants to build a U.S.-compliant perpetual futures market on Hyperliquid. But it’s still on testnet and awaiting regulatory approval, so don’t treat it as a done deal.

My take: it’s good news, but the chart hasn’t really broken through the 82–83 area yet. If it can’t close above that level on the 4-hour chart, it’s still just range-bound. On the downside, 77 was today’s pullback level, and 75 is the support I’m watching. A daily close below that would be a sign of weakness.

The funding rate is only 0.004%, so things aren’t very crowded. One thing to watch: 9.92 million HYPE tokens unlock on 11/6. No matter how good the news is, potential selling pressure has to be factored in.

Do you think this is a short-term, news-driven bounce, or is it really heading toward 90? Let me know in the comments.

$HYPE $SOL
For my own records. DYOR; this is not investment advice.

#币安神算子 #BinancePick #The Fed
The Fed announces its rate decision tonight at 2 a.m. (Beijing time, 10/29 at 02:00). Everyone can take a guess on this one.

Market pricing: around a 90% chance of no change. The real focus is the outlook for a December rate hike, at about 79–85%. Inflation is still at 3.7%.

My bet: rates stay unchanged, but the wording is hawkish. High-valuation tech stocks like $QQQ will see more volatility that night than interest rates themselves.

Which side are you on? No change / rate hike—pick a side in the comments and tell us why.

Just my opinion, not advice $BTC $QQQ

Tonight, before the market opens, I’m looking at South Korea first—not the Fed.

SK Hynix’s profits surged, and U.S. stock futures were up about 4% before the market opened $MU (Reuters). The memory sector is telling you that big tech companies are still spending money on chips, and demand for AI hasn’t let up.

I see MU perpetuals around 965 now. They touched 973 yesterday; 906 is the previous day’s close. If that level doesn’t hold, I’d look again around 880. After such a big run-up, anyone chasing the rally should weigh the risks for themselves.

There’s more coming: the Fed’s decision is due at 2 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, and the market is largely betting on no change. Then MSFT and GOOGL report after the close, with everyone watching cloud business growth.

Which one are you most worried might go wrong tonight: the Fed, Microsoft, or Google?

#美股 #AI #StocksEarningsSeason
Personal opinion, not a recommendation

#股票财报季 $MSTR This time, the EPS was basically telegraphed by the company itself well in advance.

In early October, it already said that its third-quarter unrealized Bitcoin gains were about $20.9 billion (unaudited). And last quarter? EPS was -24.45 versus expectations of +3.07, with an $8.3 billion unrealized loss. Analysts’ average EPS estimate this time is around 17.98, but estimates range wildly from -0.99 to 52.82, because it all depends on how they price Bitcoin.

So I think EPS will probably look good, but that’s an unrealized gain, not earning power—don’t read too much into it.

What I’m more interested in is the earnings call: holdings at quarter-end were 847,666 coins, at an average cost of about 75,400. Right now, it’s $BTC 8.15 万, only a little above cost. It didn’t buy any coins last week. Will it keep buying, or focus on preferred stock first?

Binance perpetuals are at 144.3 now, with 133 below as the low for the past two weeks and 155.9 above as the high on 10/22. Earnings come out after the market closes on Thursday U.S. Eastern time—that’s around 4 a.m. Friday in Beijing, with the earnings call at 5 a.m.

What’s your bet for the first day after earnings: up or down?

For my own records. DYOR; not investment advice.
#美股财报 #Bitcoin

The big event is here tonight: $MSFT is set to report earnings around 4 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, followed by a conference call at 5:30.

First, a look at the day-after moves following the last three earnings reports: -2.9% last October, -10% this January, and +15.5% in July. The stock fell after two of the last three reports. And in January, even though Azure growth clearly beat guidance, the stock still dropped 10%.

Market expectations this time:
• Revenue of around $90.6 billion (company guidance: $89.85–$90.95 billion)
• EPS of around $4.71, versus $4.13 in the same quarter last year
• Azure growth guidance of around 45% (43% last quarter)
• Capital expenditure guidance above $50 billion
• Options-implied move of around ±5.3%

The current price of the Binance perpetual is around 530.5, and the stock is not far from its 52-week high. It has already risen about 30% since its last earnings report. So I think just hitting 45% Azure growth may not be enough—the market may be looking for 46–47%, along with reassurance that capital spending isn’t getting out of hand.

The Fed’s decision at 2 a.m. tonight also comes before the earnings report, so volatility could compound.

I’ll post again after the results are out to see how they measure up.

What’s your guess for tomorrow’s open: will $MSFT rise or fall? Can Azure growth reach 46% or higher?

These are just my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#股票财报季 #美股财报 #Microsoft

#美股 The Fed announces its decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time tonight. I’m honestly not too worried about whether they “make a move.”

They just raised rates in September, bringing them to 3.75%–4%. Data from various sources suggests they’ll most likely hold steady this time (CME puts the odds at around 90%). What’s really keeping people up at night is December: the market is pricing in roughly a 79%–85% chance of a rate hike.

Inflation is at 3.7%, and September added just 29,000 nonfarm jobs. If Warsh comes down hard on “more hikes” during the press conference, AI stocks will feel the pain first. And of course, Google and Microsoft report after the market closes tonight too—three potential shocks in one day.

$QQQ The perpetual is at 725.9 right now, just a step below the recent high of 728.7. Below that, 712 is the consolidation level from a few days ago. My take: it’s perfectly normal for prices to whipsaw around the press conference. Don’t chase the move at 2 a.m. sharp.

Do you think Warsh will sound dovish or hawkish tonight? $MSFT Which earnings report are you more worried about, Google’s or Microsoft’s? $GOOGL

Just my personal opinion, not a recommendation. #美联储 #StockEarningsSeason

On my way home from work on Wednesday, it suddenly occurred to me: my token approval list is probably a complete mess by now. If Agent #4446 could check it for me every week, list which contracts still have unlimited approvals and which ones I haven’t used in ages, then revoke them automatically after I give the go-ahead, that’d be great. I don’t mind the hassle—I just don’t want to miss anything. Do you usually check your approvals manually, or have you found a better way? Let’s chat in the comments. @Ptahtrade #ProofOfAgent ptah.trade/poa $BNB

On one hand, people are worried AI is burning through cash too quickly. On the other, banks have put together $63 billion in loans for Anthropic to buy Broadcom chips. Broadcom rose about 4% on Tuesday $AVGO (CNBC)—money really is flowing into this space.

But looking at the daily chart, it pulled back from 377 in late October to 323, and only bounced to around 347 over the past two days, recovering just over half of its losses.

I’m watching two levels: around 363 above, where the drop began a few days ago—it may not be easy to clear in one go—and 333 below, where this rebound started. Holding there would be a sign of stabilization.

One thing to be careful about: a BTIG technical analyst warned against chasing this chip rebound too aggressively. The Fed decision is also due tonight, so I’d rather watch and wait as long as it stays above 333, without rushing to a conclusion.

Do you think this move in Broadcom marks the end of the pullback, or is it just a rebound?
#美股 #AI $NVDA
Just my personal observations; not investment advice.

#股票财报季 #U.S. stock earnings

On Monday, I said $HOOD would most likely be “decent numbers, but the stock won’t buy it.” The results came out at 4 a.m. and pretty much proved me right—and this time, even the numbers weren’t that great.

The report card:
Revenue: $1.424 billion, versus expectations of about $1.43 billion—a little short
EPS: $0.51, versus expectations of $0.55, missing the mark ($0.60 adjusted)
Crypto revenue: $120 million, down 55% year over year, but above the $114 million expected
Event contract revenue: $173 million, already 50% higher than crypto revenue

Shares fell 4% to 7% after hours, depending on when you looked (closed at $94.56, briefly hit $87.60). That’s the sixth time the stock has closed in the red after earnings.

My take: The business itself isn’t broken. Options, event contracts, and net deposits (already at $13 billion with October only halfway over) are all growing. But right now, the market only wants to see a recovery in the crypto business. That segment is underperforming, and the good story isn’t getting a good valuation.

As for price levels, the $95 level I mentioned Monday didn’t hold. Around $85 is the next level people will be watching. Let’s see at the U.S. market open today whether selling continues or buyers step in.

Do you think $HOOD is being unfairly punished, or does it deserve it? Comment with one phrase: “unfairly punished” / “deserves it.”

Just my personal opinion, not a recommendation.

482,228 SOL. Three new wallets moved them all in three days, with 170,000 already sent to exchanges (Bitcoin.com cites on-chain data).

Coincidentally, SOL is hovering right around $100. It’s down nearly 17% over the past month, and spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks.

A few levels I’m watching:
Above, $102.7 and $105 are resistance levels the price may run into on a rebound.
Below, $98.5 is the recent low. If it breaks, the next area to watch is $93–$96.
The perpetual futures funding rate is only 0.007%. Not many people are aggressively going long, which also suggests that confidence is pretty low.

The whales still have about 290,000 SOL they haven’t moved. That’s a sword hanging over the market. The Fed is also meeting tomorrow evening, so I’d rather wait and see than bet on a direction.

Do you think SOL can hold the $100 level tonight?

#山寨币 #加密货币 $SOL $BTC

Just my personal observations; not investment advice.

#币安神算子 Tonight, let's make a simple guess: when the BTC daily candle closes tomorrow at 8 a.m. Beijing time, will it be above or below 80k?

It's at 80,186 right now—basically sitting right on the line. Over the past few days, daily closes have gradually slipped from 81.4k to 80.1k. It's been around 80.1k for three days straight: it hasn't closed below 80k, but it hasn't had the strength to climb either. Funding is at 0.01%, so things aren't crowded.

I'm betting above. The reasoning is simple: the area around 79.3k below 80k has been swept a few times, but price has bounced back each time. Still, the Fed's up early Wednesday, and one statement could send it either way, so I'm keeping my bet small.

Which side are you on? Drop an “up” or “down” in the comments.

$BTC $QQQ #BinancePick

Just my personal opinion, not advice

A quick scan before the market opened tonight: Celestica stood out the most. Its earnings EPS came in at 3.30 (vs. 2.99 expected), and it also set a 2027 revenue target of $40 billion. The stock was up 17% premarket. The AI hardware trade has gotten another boost.

$NVDA was up about 0.5% premarket, around 217. On the daily chart, it’s just been grinding between 211 and 222 for several days. I’m watching those two levels; let’s see which way it breaks before weighing in.

Also, don’t forget: the Fed starts its two-day meeting today, with the decision due at 2 a.m. Thursday Beijing time. Microsoft and Google report after the close on Wednesday (4 a.m. Thursday Beijing time), so tonight will probably be a wait-and-see kind of night.

Do you think NVDA will test 222 first tonight, or pull back to 211 first? #美股 #英伟达 #AI

Just my personal opinion, not a recommendation