Julie_

In the face of money laundering with dirty money, leading exchanges will be forced to strengthen KYC, on-chain tracking, and suspicious fund reporting, while small exchanges and pseudo-decentralized gray platforms will have increasingly smaller survival spaces.

What can truly transcend cycles is not the wildest leverage, but the cleanest funds and the most compliant infrastructure. Rather than fantasizing about arbitrage in regulatory gaps, it is better to position oneself in advance on the side that will be preserved by future regulations.
#加密市场观察

Retail investors have hit a peak of despair, what should we look at?

Today, BTC not only fell below the $97,000 mark but also touched a six-month low. Under the dual pressure of tech stock selling in the US and cooled interest rate cut expectations, the market is in a state of lament. The CIO of Bitwise bluntly stated that retail investors have reached a peak of despair; this statement sounds harsh, but for seasoned investors, despair often solidifies the foundation of the market.

Aside from price, what else can we see?

On one hand, there is a continuous decline in prices, while on the other hand, there is a crazy expansion of infrastructure. Just as everyone panics and sells off, Ripple Labs is spending $4 billion to accelerate the acquisition of TradFi companies. This is an extremely strong divergence signal: Retail investors are exiting due to short-term candlestick patterns, while the giants are taking advantage of the low tide to deeply integrate Web3 with traditional finance.

Operational suggestions:
1. At this position, the biggest taboo is to be swept by emotions to chase highs and sell lows.
2. Extend the cycle: The current decline is more like a cleanup of high leverage and weak hands, rather than the end of a bull market.
3. Focus on hard logic: As long as the US regulatory framework and institutional entry logic remain unchanged, a pullback is an opportunity to allocate quality assets in batches.

Look less at accounts and more at fundamentals. Only when most people dare not place orders is it the true Alpha moment.
#加密市场分析 #长期主义

What is truly dragging down the market is the tight short-term liquidity, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has dropped to 41%, and coupled with two consecutive weeks of fund outflows, the market will naturally be more cautious. However, if you look at on-chain data, you will find that no one is really fleeing; instead, institutions are slowly building positions.
The current stage is more like a gap where the old narrative is retreating and the new direction has not fully formed yet. During this time, market fluctuations will be larger, but opportunities will also be clearer: If BTC can stabilize at 101k, there is still a chance to test 116k again, while the fundamentals of ETH are stronger than its price performance.
#加密周期

The U.S. government has ended the longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days. This is not just a symbol of a temporary halt to a political deadlock but an experiment in rebuilding trust systems.

The House passed a temporary bill, Trump is ready to sign, and federal employees can finally receive their paychecks, causing market sentiment to rebound instantly. However, I believe that beneath the surface calm, the significance of this event for crypto is far deeper than a macro-positive impact.

First, from a market perspective, the end of the shutdown equates to a short-term risk alleviation. Over the past month, the government shutdown in the U.S. has increased risks of debt default and delays in fiscal appropriations, leading to a brief strengthening of the dollar, stock market volatility, and suppressed sentiment in the crypto market. Now, with the passage of the bill, the market has regained liquidity signals—expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have risen to 68%, and funds are expected to flow back into high-risk assets. BTC stabilizes around $105,000, and ETH holds steady at $3,500, indicating that institutional confidence has not yet shattered, but is rather waiting for political certainty to materialize.

Second, from the perspective of trust structure, the government shutdown has once again exposed the fragility of traditional systems: 1.4 million federal employees were forced to go without pay, food and medical assistance were interrupted, flights canceled, supply chains disrupted… When public services rely on political consensus, a single point of failure in trust becomes a systemic risk. Decentralized finance and governance do not depend on a single political node to operate and will not come to a halt due to voting disputes. In an era where even the government can go offline, distributed systems may serve as a backup power source.

Third, from the policy and regulatory perspective, following the end of the shutdown, the Treasury and regulatory agencies will resume their decision-making rhythm. This means that previously shelved reviews of crypto ETFs, CFTC leverage trading rules, and stablecoin regulatory drafts may accelerate. Especially against the backdrop of the Trump administration reshaping financial priorities, the market generally expects a regulatory certainty window to open around 2025. This will be an important signal for institutional capital entry.

The market's rebound may only be superficial; the real trend is the migration of trust.
#美国结束政府停摆

After Uniswap surged 40%, today the CFTC is going to open leveraged crypto trading, and the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan have successively relaxed regulations. The entire industry is entering a stage of institutionalized DeFi.
The seemingly decentralized market is being redefined by regulatory frameworks. This is not a bad thing; rather, it means that mainstream capital has finally recognized the financial value of crypto. Moving forward, the pace of institutional entry may be faster than we imagine.
At this turning point, I believe the real opportunity lies not in speculating on coins, but in understanding the direction of the integration of finance and crypto.

$BTC re-emerges at $106,000, $ETH leads with a 7% increase, the DeFi sector explodes, and the market's recovery is not coincidental. The U.S. government shutdown crisis has temporarily eased, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, and with clearer ETF policies, market sentiment is quietly warming up. Uniswap surged by 40% due to the activation of the fee switch, resembling a barometer for the DeFi revival.
However, it is important to note that this round of rebound may be a short-term correction driven by policy signals, rather than the starting point of a comprehensive bull market. ETFs still face outflow pressures, indicating that institutional risk appetite has not fully recovered. The key now is not to chase prices but to assess the direction of capital reallocation—AI, DeFi, Restaking, L2 will all form new value layers by 2025.
#美国政府停摆

$BTC strong rebound, $ETH synchronized turning positive, essentially reflecting the resonance of macro environment and compliance expectations. The inflow of ETF funds marks the restart of institutional allocation, and crypto assets are entering a stage of formal recognition. In the long term, this is the beginning of an upgrade in asset classes, rather than the end of a short-term market.

$AIA has left everyone behind
Those who didn't sell out are all like this

Revisiting Linea, it feels like it is embarking on its own revenge arc. As the zkEVM L2 built by ConsenSys, Linea's positioning is very clear—not to compete with Ethereum, but to help Ethereum win. This is evident in its route choices: fully EVM equivalent, ETH as gas, and tokens primarily used for incentives rather than governance.

What’s even more interesting is its recent collaboration with SWIFT—over 30 banks are piloting cross-border settlements using Linea. This indicates that traditional finance is seriously starting to regard on-chain infrastructure, and Linea happens to be positioned at the sweet spot of "security + compliance."
Of course, the pressure of unlocking $LINEA is still there, and the price hasn't fluctuated much, but from the perspective of ecological growth and institutional adoption, this chain could become a core player in the next round of the "Ethereum accelerator" narrative.
#Linea $LINEA

Who sold it again $AIA ?

Noticed the Plasma project, it feels a bit different in the stablecoin infrastructure space. It is not focused on creating a single stablecoin, but rather aims to reshape the way capital flows globally. Plasma is an EVM-compatible Layer 1, emphasizing zero-fee transfers and "100k+ TPS", with the goal of allowing USD stablecoins to flow as freely as internet data.

It is worth noting that it is backed by Founders Fund (Peter Thiel), and shortly after the mainnet went live, it achieved over 2 billion USD in active circulation of stablecoins. Although it is still in the early stages, with risks and regulatory uncertainties present, under the trend of global capital settlement gradually moving on-chain, Plasma could become one of the core players in the next wave of the "stablecoin infrastructure" narrative.
#plasma $XPL

When it comes to Linea, everyone is certainly familiar with it. It's not an exaggeration to say it is the darling of ConsenSys, backed by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, making it a project born with a golden spoon.

Its positioning is very clear: to be the most developer-friendly ZK Layer2.

While other ZK L2s are still struggling with how to be compatible with EVM, Linea comes straight out and claims to be fully EVM equivalent.

What does this mean?
1. Zero-cost migration: The code you write on Ethereum can be moved to Linea without any changes.
2. Comprehensive toolset: The tools that developers rely on the most, like MetaMask, Infura, and Besu, are all ConsenSys' own, seamlessly integrated, providing an enhanced development experience.

Technically, it doesn't hold back (Vortex SNARK + homomorphic encryption), and for user experience, it uses ETH as Gas, even creating a dual-burn model for $LINEA .

Looking at it this way, Linea's path is very stable. It does not pursue the most radical or flashy innovations; what it seeks is a compliant, secure, and scalable ZK Layer2. This clearly aims at institutions and large-scale applications.
#linea $LINEA

Good morning, family! It's the first day of November!
Last night was Halloween; did your holding K-line scare you like a ghost?
I hope this month our wallets can be as big, round, and yellow as Halloween pumpkins!
#11月暴涨

The core value of Morpho lies in its rethinking of DeFi lending risks and efficiency. It has evolved from an early optimizer into a customizable isolated market framework.

It has several main features:
1. Freedom of market creation: Anyone can define and launch a lending market, including assets, LTV, interest rate models, etc., without lengthy governance votes.

2. Risk isolation: This is key. Each market (Vault) is independent. This completely resolves the systemic risks of traditional protocols where all succeed or fail together. Users lend and borrow in specific pools, greatly increasing safety and flexibility.

3. Dynamic interest rate (IRM): Its interest rate model is very sensitive. For example, when utilization skyrockets from 0% to 100%, the interest rate can automatically jump from 1% to 16%. This mechanism ensures maximum capital efficiency and prevents capital stagnation.

4. Institution-friendly: The introduction of the risk curator role and clear risk delineation gives Morpho the potential to attract institutional funds, evolving it to an infrastructure-level solution.

In the future, Morpho's plans for fixed interest rates and collateralized liquid assets (revolving loans) are new highlights.
#Morpho $MORPHO

Share an observation: $HEMI is quietly positioning itself in two high-growth narratives—RWA tokenization and decentralized infrastructure.

When the price of $HEMI was $0.054, the price of $BTC was around $114,938, and $ETH was near $4,145. In the current market seeking real-world utility, Hemi focuses on connecting tangible assets with on-chain liquidity models, beginning to gain attention.

The story of RWA and DeFi is increasingly believed by everyone.

Personally, I believe that the project's emphasis on compliance and cross-chain integration is key to whether it can deepen institutional collaboration in the future. If BTC and ETH remain strong, market capital is likely to rotate towards tokens like $HEMI that have solid fundamentals, giving it the opportunity to ride the wave of the next macro cycle.
#HEMI

Before any wind direction arrives,
Don't just think about where the wind blows,
But first stand firm in your own direction.
AI, RWA, BTC L2 come wave after wave,
Trends will change, people's hearts will fluctuate,
But what can transcend cycles,
Is always that stability and clarity.
You yourself are the standard of the wind.
#十月加密行情

Everyone is talking about modularization, but many people haven't understood what modularization is really solving. Let me share my views (about @Hemi ).
In the past year, my biggest feeling is that the traditional public chain has reached its limit. The emergence of projects like Hemi represents the direction of the next generation of infrastructure. It is redefining the role of chains.
The core of Hemi is division of labor. It clearly breaks down the tasks of public chains (execution, settlement, DA). This means complete freedom for developers. Previously, developers were tightly bound by the performance bottlenecks of public chains, but now Hemi essentially provides a super foundation that allows for any kind of construction.
Moreover, Hemi is not just a technical framework; it is creating an ecological hub. It actively connects projects like dRPC and The Graph, eliminating the various silos in Web3 today. It aims to enable data and computing power to flow freely.
Therefore, Hemi is not just a chain; it is a foundational layer that allows applications like DeFi, AI, and gaming to truly thrive.
From this perspective, the value of the $HEMI token far exceeds the token itself. It is the fuel driving this ecological cycle and the core of the network effect. Modularization is the new normal in the crypto world, and Hemi is undoubtedly the most significant role in this transformation.

Let's talk about Morpho. The DeFi lending space seems mature, but there's actually a hurdle that hasn't been overcome, which is the low capital utilization rate. Money is locked in the pools by algorithms, and although it looks like there is sufficient liquidity, it is actually dead money.

I think Morpho's approach is quite unique; it is very straightforward: cut out the middle layer. It is not trying to recreate Aave, but rather to optimize Aave. It treats Aave as a safe bottom pool and then creates direct peer-to-peer connections on top of it.

This operation is very clever. It makes the system lighter, and interest rates return to the essence of the market. In other words, it has optimized on the basis of compatibility and synergy. No wonder its TVL has climbed so quickly. Its $MORPHO token is a lever that binds the growth of participants and the protocol together. In my view, it is not a bank, but rather a highly efficient capital matching market, which is true innovation in the lending sector.

#morpho $MORPHO

The real gap in this world is not the symbolic and labeled things such as identity, wealth levels, class, etc., but the distance of information disparity.
#加密市场反弹

Strategic abandonment is the periodic review and cleaning of outdated goals, old beliefs, and ineffective methods, redirecting resources/assets to the most growth-oriented areas.
#量子计算概念股大涨