LeotheHorseman

The AI community is currently talking about @cluely just like the crypto community was talking about @stayloudio a few days ago. Extreme marketing, extreme antics, extreme engagement farming; you can hate it, but you can't ignore it. In fact, every time you hate it, it becomes part of its marketing. However, please do not take this paragraph as flattery.

帆少说的三位数大饼我证实是真的

Fun fact: The idea of AMM was originally invented to solve the liquidity problem of prediction markets. The 'Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule' proposed by Robin Hanson in 2002 is the prototype of AMM. However, the vast majority of current prediction markets use order books.

I believe Binance's holding interest program has the lowest threshold currently, with funds being secured in coin-based staking. After searching for [Holding Interest] in [Services], you can turn on the switch, and the spot assets in the account will automatically earn interest at a certain APR, with daily payouts. If you want to trade spot assets, you can redeem them at any time, without having to wait 7 days or longer like on-chain unstaking.

The underlying principle is that Binance, as a node, represents users in staking. If Binance can offer both coin-based Yu'ebao and seamlessly conduct DEX trading, it will become the largest gateway to the on-chain world.

This plot makes me want to empty Sol😅 I suggest splitting the two chains into four chains, and then the four chains into eight chains, so we have targets to play with every day.

GOR didn't understand or keep up, ran a fork chain on a single node, does this mean mocking Solana?

I am really scared. Iran has been saying for a long time that it wants to do something that will be remembered by the whole world for centuries, and then it just released a coin on Pumpfun.

I remember reading the short story "Urban Horror Disease" by Nine Knives (yes, the one who wrote "You Are the Apple of My Eye") in middle school, it was bizarre yet filled with chivalry and tenderness. The most famous piece among them is called "Fear Bomb", in which the protagonist is transported by aliens to a clone city located in Bermuda, where all the symbols and characters are in chaos, and he can't understand or hear anything, leading him to suspect that something is wrong with his brain structure.

Now, when I look at Twitter in the crypto world, it feels just like this.

Mining with your mouth is, in my opinion, one of the biggest scams in the cryptocurrency world. The project parties and distribution platforms buy your (and your audience's) attention at a low price with unfulfilled promises, making you ignore what is truly important in the market.

In addition to supporting $BNB, the new project on Buidlpad Sahara also supports $USD1, increasing the use cases for stablecoins. Binance is really going all out in promoting this.

Jessie tweeted that assets issued on the Base chain will be directly displayed in the Coinbase app. Here are a few reactions:

1. This operation is more like the built-in feature of OKX Web3, rather than Binance alpha, bringing in traffic entry rather than direct liquidity.

2. The trading route uses Uniswap and Aerodrome, allowing for speculation on the corresponding targets.

3. Positive news for the @virtuals_io ecosystem.

I talked with a friend who is a founder in the US for a long time, and as a result, the guy told me that a founder of a large financing project, which hasn't issued tokens yet, is selling tokens in the OTC market himself. It's a bit too funny.

The Virtual platform is about to launch $IRIS. In fact, it can read the politics of @NethermindEth and the old forces of EF, as well as the politics of Virtual and Base systems. Why has the Ethereum official finally retweeted the announcement, and why has $Virtual still not been listed on Coinbase?

Who will become the spark for the new officials, and who will be the loyal ministers with great contributions? Beihai, think more.

Recently, @SaharaLabsAI conducted an ICO on Buidlpad, and I’m writing down my analysis. Before the analysis begins, let’s try to define the recent "Shandong Studies":

"Shandong Studies" is a discipline that analyzes the target functions, personal preferences, and personality traits of superiors for upward management and investment analysis.

Due to the cryptocurrency circle:
1. Gradually entering the mainstream under the influence of Trump trade.
2. Binance, due to its alpha and historical position, has a unique wealth creation effect.
3. Elon has a significant impact on cryptocurrency memes.

These three factors combined make the analysis of core figures using Shandong Studies more important than fundamental analysis.

Now let's analyze the Sahara project:

- Sahara is a project with strong ties to Binance, whether it's the executives coming from Binance or conducting the ICO on Buidlpad led by @ErickNomad, it shows that it’s a "home team project".

- In the AI narrative within the cryptocurrency circle, the projects most capable of attracting new users, generating revenue on the ground, and most favored by @cz_binance are data-related projects. A previous example is when CZ served as an advisor to Vana.

- Analyzing from the FDV perspective, the hard cap of the ICO is 8.5M, corresponding to about 1.4% circulation, with a valuation of 600M. The AI public chain targets $Tao and $Vana that can split tokens are generally above 2B in FDV, which is the market consensus.

- Technically speaking, there are many stories about AI Layer1 or All-in-one platforms, but very few can first do well in data labeling, project purchase data, and reward distribution to create an RPA platform. Compared to other projects, Sahara has full-stack capabilities, including on-chain registration, rights confirmation, and monetization of data, models, and agents, leading to a much higher valuation ceiling.

- From the perspective of externalities, Scale AI has just announced Meta's $10 billion investment intention, and the valuation of data infrastructure can continue in traditional AI, which will generate corresponding premiums in the cryptocurrency circle.

In summary, participating in the Sahara AI ICO is very worthwhile. After the TGE, we can continue to observe the changes in ARR and the valuation performance of subsidiary projects.

A brief overview of how to foresee the public falling out between Musk and Trump from some research on prediction markets:

- Kalshi is the only compliant prediction market regulated by the CFTC, where political and sports contracts can be traded legally.

- The relationship between Kalshi, the Trump family, and the Musk group was relatively close. Kalshi hired young Trump as a strategic advisor, and then Musk invited Kalshi's former chief advisor to join DOGE.

- However, on May 20, Kalshi announced a partnership with xAI, and shortly after major media outlets shared this news, they quickly retracted the announcement; currently, only the content from Binance Square remains.

- Subsequently, it was observed that Paradigm frequently co-hosted events with Kalshi, and according to roadside gossip, Founder's Fund added another round to Polymarket, while Peter Thiel's relationship with Elon Musk seemed to be closer, indicating some changes in the Cabal.

Recommended actions:
1. Anticipate that Musk will publicly clash with Trump and position a short on $Doge.
2. If the collaboration with Kalshi ends, it is clear that Polymarket will take over this market, so one should prepare to invest in targets like $UMA, $EIGEN, and Polyclue in advance.

In short, this is hindsight; it is shared here solely for informational purposes, and I keep reminding myself, "North Sea, think more."

Taking advantage of the gaps between meetings with the client and a few friends, I will briefly write down my thoughts on the @virtuals_io ecosystem. I won’t talk about the gameplay guide as too many people have written about it.

The original intention of the Genesis launch was to exchange points for whitelist access, and points can primarily be obtained through the following methods:
1. Staking $virtual native currency.
2. Holding tokens from certain projects as a diamond hands investor.
3. Trading volume (hence some call it the small Binance alpha).
4. Producing content on Twitter.

Now, I will outline several issues with this mechanism, which are also bottlenecks for @virtuals_io:

- 35% of the tokens were given to the community, and 15% went into the liquidity pool. The project team mostly consists of novices who do not understand token control, resulting in a very dispersed distribution of tokens.

- The “point cost - oversubscription multiple - opening market value” is too easy to calculate. The community consensus is focused on this calculation, which I won’t elaborate on further. You can refer to the tweets of actuaries like @0x0xFeng and @0xMapleH. This leads to a regression model that is too simple, with no assets breaking the ceiling.

- Most of the project's funding comes from transaction fees rather than token sales, and the main sources of transaction initiators are:
1. Real traders.
2. Points Farmers.
They will all choose $solace due to the leader effect, and because it corresponds to a deep liquidity pool with low slippage.

- However, the @solacelaunch project, aside from having endorsements from UC Berkeley and the official Virtual hackathon, only has an understanding of token control and market conditions at the level of students outside the industry.

- Therefore, apart from the leaders, many other projects have become vehicles for ve33, and they are also low control, virtual currency benchmarks, resulting in extremely low buying interest.

- Once the model is formed, what virtual attracts will not be the small players in the Solana trenches, but rather the experienced DeFi farmers playing ve33.

The way to break the deadlock is very simple:
1. Find a Virtual native, crypto native project. (Instead of other VC projects disguised as agents, as their goal is to sell off)
2. Pull to flip $solace, at least forming a dual leader pattern.
3. Deepen the liquidity pool to facilitate larger players and farmers to enter and exit.
4. Coordinate product delivery to raise it sufficiently high to attract external trench players.

With the presence of outliers, a new valuation model can emerge, providing more space for competition.

Please stop saying phrases like “a good product will speak for itself.” @virtuals_io itself pivoted from gamefi to Agent launchpad, and should know that attention in the crypto world lasts no more than three minutes, and players' thresholds are long gone.

That's all. I am overwhelmed with emotion and do not know what else to say (laughs).

This afternoon, when chatting with the founder of the prediction market, we talked about how the prediction market is reaching a new turning point, whether it's through integration with agents or a regulatory compromise with the CFTC regarding existing event contracts. Later that evening, @X officially announced a collaboration with @Polymarket.

In fact, there was a subplot earlier; https://t.co/iOSdVxYt4M had actually reached a collaboration with Kalshi earlier this year, but due to unknown reasons, the collaboration announcement was quickly deleted. Everyone can speculate on the reasons.

There are almost as many people in the market pretending to be MM to deceive project parties for coins as there are in the AI circle claiming to be working on general agents, infinitely many in the sense of L'Hôpital.

I don't quite understand, can media in the crypto world now treat a single personal source as news? And it's not even a market opinion, but a judicial ruling? If it cannot be falsified, must it be true?

@BlockBeatsAsia @OdailyChina

I have a plan: open a DAO on daosfun to buy the tokens issued on believe, and then use my time to launch a token on timefun. This pile of time tokens will then be used to open a DAO on daosfun to absorb the selling pressure, and finally, this entire set of DAOs will be used as a startup to issue a coin on believe.

I would like to call this the @alliancedao zeroing token avengers alliance; the academic term is junk bond packaging.