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The FOMC meeting set for next week is shaping into one of the most important macro events of the quarter. Traders across Polymarket are assigning a ninety percent probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver a twenty five basis point cut. This has completely shifted Bitcoin sentiment from fear of a bearish breakdown toward growing confidence in a surprise recovery rally.
This report breaks down the expectations the risks and the indicators now pointing to a possible bullish reversal for Bitcoin through the koinmilyoner market lens.
Why Markets Expect Powell to Cut Rates Despite Inflation Warnings
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to approve another quarter point cut even though several policymakers have expressed anxiety about persistent inflation. The Fed already implemented two consecutive cuts this year in reaction to unexpected weakness in labor markets during the summer.
Initially five current voting members signaled clear reluctance to support additional easing in December. That narrative flipped dramatically on November twenty one when New York Fed President John Williams stated that economic conditions justified a reduction in the near term.
Question
Why would the Fed cut again if inflation is still elevated
Answer
Because the labor market is cooling the credit cycle is tightening and recession signals are flashing. The Fed may decide that protecting growth is now more urgent than aggressively fighting inflation.
Bitcoin On Chain Data Begins Flashing Bullish Signals
Cryptonews highlighted a key on chain metric showing renewed strength. Bitcoin “liveliness” is rising again. This indicator measures spending activity relative to long term holding. Historically liveliness climbs during the early and mid phases of bull markets.
Question
Why does rising liveliness matter for Bitcoin’s price
Answer
Because it shows long term holders are becoming active again and that activity often marks the transition from accumulation to expansion phases. These moments tend to precede large upside moves.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe expects short term volatility as markets position ahead of the FOMC decision. He anticipates a sweep of lower liquidity zones possibly down to eighty seven thousand before a sharp rebound.
He believes that once liquidity is collected and the rate cut is confirmed Bitcoin will push above ninety two thousand and begin its run toward one hundred thousand.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Technical Structure Points Toward Ninety Four Thousand Breakout
The technical chart tells a similar story. Bitcoin has broken out of a long descending red channel which signals that the strongest phase of the downtrend is likely finished. Price is hovering near the eighty nine thousand region which sits just below an important resistance turned support zone marked in orange.
Until Bitcoin closes decisively above this area sellers can still create short term pressure. However the current breakout attempt already shows promising strength. Bitcoin bounced cleanly from the lower channel region near seventy nine thousand and has reclaimed mid trend levels.
The next major hurdle is ninety four thousand six hundred. A confirmed break above this level would validate the bullish continuation scenario.
Question
What happens if Bitcoin clears ninety four thousand six hundred
Answer
The chart projects upside targets at one hundred eight thousand and then one hundred sixteen thousand. These zones match historical liquidity pockets and align with the macro expectation for expansion as the Fed shifts toward easier policy.
Bitcoin is positioned at a critical intersection of macro policy and technical structure. With a high probability of a Fed rate cut rising liveliness on chain and a breakout forming on the chart the stage is set for a potential upside reversal. If the ninety four thousand zone is broken decisively Bitcoin may enter its next expansion phase much sooner than expected.