K-line breaks down from the ascending wedge, weekly range 100k-106k fluctuates, trading volume shrinks, MACD neutral but weak, RSI 36 oversold, trend is neutral but downside risk is high #TechnicalAnalysis.
Sentiment is low, fear index 22-27 (Extreme Fear), retail investors shout “fear” on X, but historical average in November rises by 42%, hoping for a 150k rebound #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed.
Whale Differentiation: Big whales sold 400,000 coins in March to pressure prices, Satoshi-era sold off wildly; medium and small whales are aggressively buying, exchange positions reduced by 209,000, long-term confidence is strong #WhaleActivity #BitcoinWhales.
Policy Warm Wind: Fed injects $29.4B to ease liquidity, Japan/Canada relaxes regulations, Trump and CZ pardon “witch-hunt”, Ripple/Kraken launch new services; US shutdown may end, favorable for rebound, but weak US stocks drag down #CryptoNews #PolicyUpdate.
Overall, bear signals flash, but institutions are accumulating + seasonal effects are building up #BullishNovember.
Trading Advice: Don't panic all in, defend 100k lightly add long, stop loss at 95k; break 112k add position to chase 120k profit. Short-term wait and see, wait for whales to stop selling or policies to land, play safe with small positions, big chance to turn around in November! #TradingTips #BTCTrading
Event-Driven: Fed's rate cut in October but Powell's hawkish remarks causing volatility; After the major crash in October (down 14%), gold price decline favors BTC as a safe haven; No significant positive events, macro uncertainty dominates.
Market Sentiment (Key): Sentiment on X is low, Fear & Greed index 24-51 (Fear/Neutral), crowd misinterpreting weakness as stability; Chip structure change: Long-term holders' monthly distribution surged by 122,000 BTC (selling pressure intensifies), short-term holders taking profits (whale transfers ongoing), demand waning, easily leading to further dips but also presenting reversal opportunities.
Trading Suggestions:
Short-term (4H/Daily): Low sentiment + selling pressure on chips, hold positions and observe; if $110k support holds, buy/add position; if broken, sell and stop loss. Medium to Long-term (Weekly/Monthly): Combine LTH distribution but overall buy signal, low sentiment is an accumulation period, suggest buying on dips and holding, target $120k+.
ETH price consolidates in the $3,800-$4,000 range, 4h/daily neutral (RSI neutral, MACD weak bullish signal), weekly/monthly shows bottom formation, overall volatility high but above the 200-day moving average (Bull Market Signal).
Event-Driven: Pectra upgrade enhances network efficiency, BlackRock $430M ETH transferred to Coinbase (potential selling pressure), SharpLink buys $3.5B ETH holdings, Fed expectations and regulatory meetings boost; October news focus on ETF outflows and heightened volatility.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish dominance (Fear & Greed Index 34-39, Fear/Neutral), social sentiment turns negative (increased FUD, like on X, whale shorts mixed with longs), short-term holders capitulate (losses rising), but institutions/whales accumulate strongly (new whale buys $72M+ ETH, net accumulation since early October, whale holdings +0.62 score)
Chip Structure Changes: Whales transferring accumulation from retail (73% correlation with price movements), new whales actively preferring to hoard, suggesting bottom reset and potential rebound;
Event-Related: Whale behavior highly correlated with ETF/upgrade events, driving 75% leverage rebounds but prone to reversal.
Trading Suggestions:
Short-Term (4h/Daily): Chip structure shows whales buying dips, market sentiment driven by fear but supported by institutions. If price holds above $3,800, recommend buying/adding (avoid chasing highs); if it breaks $4,000, short-term sell to take profit. Watch for relative strength of red days and leverage liquidations.
Medium to Long-Term (Weekly/Monthly): Weekly bottom solid, monthly potential Q4 flywheel (higher mcap = more inflow = more hype). Combine institutional accumulation with event catalysts (like Pectra), recommend holding or accumulating at lower levels, target $5,000-$6,000; if it falls below $3,600, consider reducing positions and observing. Risks: High volatility, set stop-loss.
BTC price consolidates in the $106K-$114K range, 4h/Daily neutral (RSI neutral, MACD weak bullish signal), Weekly/Monthly lines show bottom formation, overall volatility is high but above the 200-day moving average (Bullish Signal).
Event Driven: Fed expected to cut rates, Trump-Xi summit boosting the market, SEC meeting may impact regulation; October news focus on Uptober disappointment, increased volatility.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish dominance (Fear & Greed Index 24, Extreme Fear), social sentiment turns negative (increase in FUD), short-term holders capitulate (daily loss of $750M), but institutions/whales accumulate strongly (net purchase of $450M since early October with additional 50K+ BTC)
Chip Structure Changes: Whales/smart money shifting accumulation from retail (Shark positions +0.62 score), new whales actively prefer hoarding, suggesting bottom reset and potential rebound.
Trading Suggestions:
Short-term (4h/Daily): Chip structure shows whales buying dips, market sentiment driven by fear but supported by institutions. If price holds above $106K, recommend buying/accumulating (avoid chasing highs); if breaking above $114K, short-term sell to take profit. Watch the relative strength of the red day and leverage liquidations.
Mid to Long-term (Weekly/Monthly): Weekly bottom solid, Monthly potential Q4 flywheel (higher mcap = more inflows = more hype). Combining institutional accumulation and event catalysts, suggest holding or accumulating at lower levels, target $150K-$180K; if breaking below $100K, consider reducing positions and waiting. Risk: High volatility, set stop-loss. #加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币
BTC: As of August 25, 2025, the current price of BTC is $111,600; the closing pattern yesterday was a 'hanging man', with average volume, and short-term bearish sentiment prevailing.
On-chain data shows a low turnover rate over the weekend, indicating strong market watchfulness.
According to URPD data, 1.584 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $100,500 - $107,000 range; 1.552 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $93,500 - $98,500 range.
Overall, Bitcoin is relatively weak in the short term and is undergoing a correction. The current strong support is in the $108,000 - $112,000 range. The behavior of large capital remains a key variable determining the BTC trend; until there is a large-scale reduction in holdings or a depletion of funds, the market is unlikely to shift from bullish to bearish. The repair of market sentiment requires time, so be patient and wait for the market to stabilize.
ETH: Yesterday, a long-legged doji appeared at a high level, indicating a short-term adjustment, so be patient and wait for the adjustment while remaining optimistic about the future market.
There is nothing to say, the general direction is still positive. The cryptocurrency world is no longer what it used to be. When panic selling occurs, buy boldly. $btc $eth don't look at any news; what you can see is what they want you to see. It's still true that after a big rise, there will definitely be a pullback, and after a big drop, there will definitely be a rebound. Set aside the complex things, and trade in the simplest way...
BTC: As of August 20, 2025, the current price of BTC is $155,000; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bearish line," with average volume, and short-term bears still dominate.
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin turnover rate has decreased. Notably, players with costs in the $95,000 range have begun to show signs of turnover. Yesterday, the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was 4,504, worth $523 million, which has weakened institutional confidence, leading to a certain amount of selling pressure in the short term.
According to URPD data, 1.627 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $100,500-$107,000 range; 1.582 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.
Overall, Bitcoin may experience a sharp rebound in the short term, but the rebound high may be limited, and it may still undergo a second bottoming process before effectively stabilizing. The area around $112,000 is expected to remain a key support level.
BTC: As of August 15, 2025, the current price of BTC is $119,000; the closing pattern yesterday was a 'medium bearish candle', with increased trading volume, and short-term bearish sentiment prevailing.
On-chain data shows that the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. yesterday was 1,872 coins, valued at $231 million, indicating that institutional buying remains.
Overall, it is expected that the weekend may test the support level of $117,000, and after the chips are digested, there is hope for a recovery in the upward trend next week.
ETH: Although Ethereum also closed with a 'medium bearish candle' and is clearly under short-term pressure, the strength of the bullish forces is relatively strong, and it is expected to regain upward momentum soon.
BTC: As of August 11, 2025, the current price of BTC is $121,600; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," and trading volume increased compared to the previous day, indicating a strengthening of short-term bullish momentum.
On-chain data shows that the price increase over the weekend has slightly boosted the turnover rate, mainly due to profit-taking from recent low-position builders, while other holders remain on the sidelines. It is worth noting that CPI data will be released on Tuesday, and the current market has a cautious outlook on inflation, which may bring some risk-averse sentiment in the short term.
According to URPD data, 1.464 million bitcoins are accumulated in the $103,500-$108,500 range; 1.608 million bitcoins are accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.
Overall, Bitcoin has once again touched the $120,000 mark. Although it has not fully stabilized, $117,000 has been regarded by the market as a new support level, while the range of $112,000 to $116,000 has become a relatively safe chip area. Technical structure shows that Bitcoin is oscillating within a price channel, with key support below around $117,000 and primary resistance above around $125,000. If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes above this position, the next target may directly aim at $137,000; if it fails to break through, it may fall back to around $117,000 to seek support again.
ETH: Still maintaining a fluctuating upward trend, with a retreat and advance pattern, there is a high probability of new highs in the future.
BTC: As of August 4, 2025, the current price of BTC is $114,500; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," with relatively low trading volume, indicating a temporary advantage for bulls, but momentum has not fully released.
On-chain data shows that yesterday's turnover rate significantly decreased, and panic sentiment did not continue; the outflow of funds mainly came from short-term losing players, while early holders adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
URPD data shows that there are 1.512 million bitcoins accumulated in the $103,500 to $108,500 range, making it the first strong support level; in the $93,500 to $98,500 range, there are 1.625 million bitcoins accumulated, serving as the second strong support level.
Overall, the current price has successfully filled the critical gap area below $112,000. According to chip distribution data, this range is located between two major accumulation zones from the previous period, representing the "critical zone" of market supply and demand game. If a new round of chip turnover can form around $112,000, the possibility of challenging the highs again cannot be ruled out; conversely, if the buying power is insufficient and it breaks through support, Bitcoin may enter the strong support area between $103,500 and $108,500, where nearly 1.512 million bitcoin chips are supporting, providing strong defensiveness. Clearly, for traders, this pullback may be a good opportunity for bargain hunting.
BTC: As of July 29, 2025, the current price of BTC is $118,800; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bearish candle", with an increase in volume, indicating short-term bearish strength.
On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,315 BTC ($157 million) yesterday, indicating stable institutional confidence. The turnover rate is moderate, with short-term holders active and long-term holders on the sidelines, leading to a stabilizing market sentiment.
According to URPD data, the range between $103,500 and $108,500 has accumulated 1.569 million BTC, becoming the first strong support level; the range between $93,500 and $98,500 has accumulated 1.641 million BTC, forming the second strong support level.
Overall, Bitcoin maintains a range-bound consolidation. Although the gap at $114,000 has been successfully filled, the gap at $112,000 remains unfilled. If there is difficulty in breaking through the previous high pressure in the short term, there may be a possibility of a second retest. Currently, the market exhibits short-term divergence, but the structure still leans bullish. Continued capital inflow, active rotation in altcoins, and support from institutional voices may suggest that after a market adjustment, there will be opportunities for a renewed upward movement.
BTC: As of June 26, 2025, the current price of BTC is $107,800; the closing pattern yesterday was a "small bullish candle", accompanied by increased volume, indicating that bulls have made some short-term efforts, but the strength is limited.
On-chain data shows that the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. yesterday was 5,165 BTC (approximately $548 million), indicating stable institutional confidence, but the increase in turnover reflects active short-term funds, with market leaders mainly consisting of short-term players, while long-term players tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude at the current price level.
On the macro level, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend led to a withdrawal of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the price, while U.S. stocks were unaffected due to the weekend closure and continued to rise this week. If U.S. stocks remain stable, Bitcoin may challenge the $110,000 mark.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin's rise is more inclined towards technical correction rather than structural reversal. There is a lack of significant positive drivers in the short term, coupled with limited liquidity, and the market may fall at any time due to changes in sentiment. It is recommended to continue monitoring the strong support range below, between $93,000 and $98,000, while the support strength at $100,500 to $105,000 is relatively insufficient, posing a risk of further decline.
Position allocation recommendation: Long-term BTC should account for 50% of the total position;
The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.
BTC: As of May 19, 2025, the current price of BTC is $103,100; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," indicating increased confidence among bulls, with trading volume rising compared to the previous day, suggesting higher market participation. The closing pattern at 8 AM tomorrow is crucial, as it may form a "dark cloud cover" pattern. If confirmed, a short-term top signal will appear, indicating a risk of correction.
On-chain data shows that last week, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $604 million, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $41.59 million; indicating continued inflow of institutional funds.
On the macro level, Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has caused market volatility, compounded by Trump's policy statements, leading to market sentiment being driven by multiple factors. The Federal Reserve's dot plot for June and the expiration of tariff exemptions in July may bring uncertainty.
In summary, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a critical stage. The $93,000 to $98,000 range is a strong support zone, remaining solid. The chips around $82,000 have largely been cleared, with remaining players mostly being long-term holders. The chips around $102,000 are primarily speculative short-term positions, making it difficult to form effective support. Bitcoin may form a "dark cloud cover" pattern on the daily level by tomorrow morning, and if confirmed, it may indicate a short-term top, with a potential for a larger correction. The opening of the U.S. stock market tonight and the closing at 8 AM tomorrow are particularly important, as they will determine the subsequent trend.
The information and data contained in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, aiming for accuracy and reliability; however, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.
BTC: As of May 9, 2025, the current price of BTC is $103,600; the daily closing pattern from yesterday was a "medium bullish candle," with trading volume increasing compared to the previous day, indicating strong bullish momentum.
On-chain data shows that yesterday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,210 BTC (approximately $117 million), reflecting solid confidence among institutional investors; the turnover rate has decreased, and the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, indicating limited selling pressure, with chips concentrating among long-term holders. The slight reduction in the $92,000-$97,000 range has not broken support.
On the macro level, the New Hampshire Strategic Reserve Bill, the Trump U.S.-UK trade agreement, and expectations of easing from Long Ge overshadowed Powell's pessimistic remarks.
In summary, the current market is driven by events, with FOMO sentiment pushing prices up, but monetary policy has not yet shifted to easing, and short-term volatility risks remain. Technically, $107,300 serves as the next resistance level. If positive news continues to develop, BTC is likely to challenge new highs, and ETH's subsequent rise also injects confidence into the market.
The information and data contained in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, aiming for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.
BTC: As of May 6, 2025, the current price of BTC is $94,100; the daily closing pattern yesterday was a 'spinning top', indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with bulls temporarily in control, but the trading volume is average, suggesting that bullish momentum has weakened. The weekly level 'shooting star' pattern indicates a bearish outlook, and caution is advised regarding bearish signals.
On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 4,516 coins (approximately $425 million) yesterday, indicating that institutional funds still have confidence in the current price, and the Bitcoin supply in the $92,000-$97,000 range has increased, suggesting that the market recognizes this range as support.
On the macro level, this week the market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. Before the meeting results are announced, market sentiment will remain cautious, and high volatility may continue.
Overall, Bitcoin may continue a short-term downward trend, with a recommendation to watch the $92,200 support level; if it breaks below, it may further test down to $88,000. It is essential to closely monitor changes in trading volume and the progress of macro events.
BTC: As of April 29, 2025, the current price of BTC is $94,900; from a daily perspective, yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," with average trading volume, indicating that bulls are dominant but momentum is limited.
On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 6,310 BTC (approximately $591 million) yesterday, with institutional confidence continuing to strengthen, but the Bitcoin turnover rate is relatively low, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
On the macro level, on April 29, 2025, the state legislature passed Senate Bill SB1373 by a vote of 37 to 19, achieving the first joint approval of Bitcoin strategic reserves by the U.S. state-level House of Representatives and Senate. The bill has now been submitted to Governor Hobbs, who has five working days (until May 6) to decide its fate. Additionally, the U.S. GDP data set to be released on April 30 will likely trigger volatility, prompting some players to adopt a wait-and-see approach to avoid risks.
In summary, Bitcoin's current price is receiving strong support in the range of $92,000 to $97,000, with a high concentration of chips and a solid market foundation. On April 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of 6,310 BTC (approximately $591 million), with institutional confidence continuing to rise. However, the long-short ratio is relatively low, reflecting insufficient market momentum, and it may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. While there is hope for a challenge to new highs this week, daily technical indicators show signs of fatigue, raising doubts about sustained upward momentum. If the market remains strong, it may enter a consolidation phase; if momentum weakens, Bitcoin may face a certain degree of correction.
The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk.
BTC: As of April 28, 2025, the current price of BTC is $94,500; from a daily perspective, yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bearish candle," indicating that market activity was insufficient due to low liquidity over the weekend, making it of limited reference significance. The weekly chart, however, closed with a "large bullish candle," accompanied by a certain volume, suggesting that bullish forces still dominate.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's trading volume and turnover rate were sluggish over the weekend, with low participation, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.
On the macro level, multiple variables will influence BTC's trend this week. The earnings reports from the four major tech companies and MicroStrategy will trigger market volatility, especially since MicroStrategy is a firm holder of Bitcoin; its earnings performance significantly impacts market confidence. Additionally, the first quarter GDP and March PCE price index data from the United States will be released, which will cause fluctuations in the dollar, indirectly affecting BTC prices. If the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill in Arizona is passed, it will bring long-term benefits to BTC, but in the short term, it may also exacerbate market volatility.
Overall, Bitcoin's upward momentum this week is limited; even if there is a brief spike, its sustainability may not be strong. This week's trend may present a "rise then fall" pattern. In the next three weeks, the market may experience a certain degree of correction, but the extent of the correction is expected to be limited. For trendline traders, the correction may be a once-in-a-lifetime excellent opportunity.
The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment made based on it is at your own risk.
BTC: As of April 25, 2025, the current price of BTC is $93,700; observing from the daily chart, yesterday's high close pattern appears to resemble a 'hanging man,' indicating a hesitant market attitude, suggesting that a significant amount of selling activity may have occurred.
On-chain data shows that a net inflow of $442 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs occurred yesterday, and institutional funds remain optimistic about the future market; however, turnover rate has decreased, indicating a reduction in market activity. According to URPD on-chain data, $96,300 serves as a strong resistance level, while $91,600 is a key support level. The current price is repeatedly contesting around $94,000.
On a macro level, the U.S. announced tariff reductions on some auto parts from Long Brother, which was followed by Long Brother's response regarding reduced tariffs on certain U.S. semiconductors and components. These messages have effectively alleviated market concerns over the trade war, boosting the cryptocurrency market. U.S. GDP and PCE data will be released on April 30, which is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Overall, based on URPD data, $96,300 is a strong resistance level for BTC, while $91,600 is an important support level. The current BTC price is repeatedly contesting around $94,000; without significant positive stimuli, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the range of $91,600 to $94,500 in the short term. The upcoming release of U.S. GDP and PCE data on April 30 will be crucial in influencing market sentiment.
The information and data contained in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investments made based on it are at your own risk.
BTC: As of April 22, 2025, the current price of BTC is $88,400; the daily chart shows some bullish momentum. The closing pattern yesterday was a "small bullish candle," and the trading volume increased compared to the previous day, indicating a rise in market participation.
On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 4,479 BTC (approximately $381 million) yesterday, reflecting institutional big players' confidence in the market. There was no significant loosening in the chip distribution in the $85,000 to $86,000 range, and the sentiment of long-term holders in the $92,000 to $97,000 range remains stable, with limited short-term selling pressure.
On the macro level, although U.S. stocks are under pressure due to economic concerns, Bitcoin is strengthening against the trend, showcasing strong independent performance. The weakening U.S. dollar index also adds support for the rise. However, the upcoming Q1 GDP data at the end of the month may trigger market volatility, which requires close monitoring.
In summary, considering the recent net inflow of $381 million into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday, combined with the weakening U.S. dollar index and a low long-short ratio, the short-term outlook is bullish. Currently, Bitcoin is challenging the 200-day moving average and may temporarily rise to the resistance range of $91,700 to $92,200 in the short term. If successful in breaking through, the price may briefly spike to $96,000, but this position is very likely to trigger another significant pullback.
The information and data in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, aiming for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantees are made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice, and any investment made based on it is at your own risk.