拟希
High-Frequency Trader
7.5 Months
笔者公众号：《区块前哨》，有每日行情见解和基础内容分析
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The reason the four-year cycle is meaningful is that it aligns with business and liquidity cycles.
Not yet started
Not yet started
See original
Cryptoquant says: "It's time to dollar-cost average into altcoins.
Due to trading volume being below the annual average, altcoins have re-entered a historical accumulation phase. $ETH
Due to trading volume being below the annual average, altcoins have re-entered a historical accumulation phase. $ETH
See original
The introduction of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy came earlier than expected.
The introduction of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy came earlier than expected.
The bond market is sending signals that the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore.
Quantitative easing is about to return for the following reasons.
Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by about 150 basis points.
Nevertheless, the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds are still higher than before the first rate cut.
This means the market believes the Federal Reserve has made a policy mistake.
And every time this has happened in the past, the Federal Reserve has never acknowledged its mistakes.
It has only done one thing, which is to restart the quantitative easing policy.
The bond market is sending signals that the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore.
Quantitative easing is about to return for the following reasons.
Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by about 150 basis points.
Nevertheless, the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds are still higher than before the first rate cut.
This means the market believes the Federal Reserve has made a policy mistake.
And every time this has happened in the past, the Federal Reserve has never acknowledged its mistakes.
It has only done one thing, which is to restart the quantitative easing policy.
See original
The entire financial system will turn to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in a few years; this is the future of the world.
Today, the SEC chairman stated: the entire financial system will turn to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in a few years; this is the future of the world.
At the same time, the People's Bank of China announced November data: gold reserves increased to 2305.39 tons, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation.
One embraces digital currencies, while the other increases physical gold. Do you want to ask why China chooses or inevitably chooses gold?
At the fork in the road, the most important thing is not to take sides but to understand. There are no absolute rights and wrongs, only different choices and corresponding costs.
01 | History always rhymes with the same footnotes
At the same time, the People's Bank of China announced November data: gold reserves increased to 2305.39 tons, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation.
One embraces digital currencies, while the other increases physical gold. Do you want to ask why China chooses or inevitably chooses gold?
At the fork in the road, the most important thing is not to take sides but to understand. There are no absolute rights and wrongs, only different choices and corresponding costs.
01 | History always rhymes with the same footnotes
See original
Perhaps altcoins are currently closer to the bottom than the top
Altcoins are currently closer to the bottom than the top.
If you zoom in on the right charts and observe the correct macro signals, you will find that they are sending such signals.
Most people are focused on M2, but the key signal in this cycle is U.S. small-cap stocks, specifically the Russell 2000 index (IWM).
IWM has just set its highest monthly closing price in history and is heading towards the 2025 peak, right at the top of the range.
When U.S. small-cap stocks experience this situation, it usually means increased liquidity in the U.S. market and the market's willingness to take on risk.
If you zoom in on the right charts and observe the correct macro signals, you will find that they are sending such signals.
Most people are focused on M2, but the key signal in this cycle is U.S. small-cap stocks, specifically the Russell 2000 index (IWM).
IWM has just set its highest monthly closing price in history and is heading towards the 2025 peak, right at the top of the range.
When U.S. small-cap stocks experience this situation, it usually means increased liquidity in the U.S. market and the market's willingness to take on risk.
See original
Will the same bull market happen again?
The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy was introduced earlier than expected.
The bond market is sending signals that the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore.
The quantitative easing policy is about to return for the following reasons.
Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by about 150 basis points.
Nevertheless, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds are still higher than the levels before the first rate cut.
This means that the market believes the Federal Reserve made a policy error.
And in every past occurrence of this situation, the Federal Reserve has never acknowledged its mistakes.
It only did one thing, which is to restart the quantitative easing policy.
The bond market is sending signals that the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore.
The quantitative easing policy is about to return for the following reasons.
Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by about 150 basis points.
Nevertheless, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds are still higher than the levels before the first rate cut.
This means that the market believes the Federal Reserve made a policy error.
And in every past occurrence of this situation, the Federal Reserve has never acknowledged its mistakes.
It only did one thing, which is to restart the quantitative easing policy.
See original
The schedule for next week is very optimistic!
Monday → QE begins
Tuesday → Inflation expectations
Wednesday → Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Thursday → Federal Reserve balance sheet release
Friday → Jerome Powell resigns
The largest bull market in history is about to start next week!
Monday → QE begins
Tuesday → Inflation expectations
Wednesday → Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Thursday → Federal Reserve balance sheet release
Friday → Jerome Powell resigns
The largest bull market in history is about to start next week!
See original
Bitcoin may not be a panic asset; instead, it is a greed asset, a microscope for dollar credit.
Why does Bitcoin fluctuate so violently?
Why can it always sense market changes in advance?
The answer is simple:
Bitcoin is not an ordinary asset but a microscope for dollar credit.
01｜Bitcoin has never been an 'independent world'
Many people think Bitcoin is something from the crypto world, unrelated to the dollar.
Actually, it's not at all.
The dollar is the base currency of global credit
And the main funding for Bitcoin comes from the dollar
All stablecoins (USDT, USDC) are essentially 'on-chain dollars'
That is to say:
The price of Bitcoin is actually a shadow of dollar credit on the chain.
Why can it always sense market changes in advance?
The answer is simple:
Bitcoin is not an ordinary asset but a microscope for dollar credit.
01｜Bitcoin has never been an 'independent world'
Many people think Bitcoin is something from the crypto world, unrelated to the dollar.
Actually, it's not at all.
The dollar is the base currency of global credit
And the main funding for Bitcoin comes from the dollar
All stablecoins (USDT, USDC) are essentially 'on-chain dollars'
That is to say:
The price of Bitcoin is actually a shadow of dollar credit on the chain.
See original
Perhaps we are about to welcome a strong rise 📈
See original
The real bull market has just begun!
Although the peak of Bitcoin just happened at the end of the '4-year cycle'
The data shows that this is a lie, and another factor just appeared at the same time!
The disturbing fact in the data is that halving did not drive the last three bull markets.
This perfectly aligns with the real driving factor - the expansion of global liquidity.
Please see the table below.
2013: Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy
2017: Actions of the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China
2020: The largest quantitative easing policy in history
Bitcoin's movement is driven by liquidity, not halving time constraints.
Every time global liquidity surges, the economy expands, and this capital flows into the cryptocurrency market!
There is one indicator that clearly reveals this: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
PMI < 50 = Contraction
PMI > 50 = Recovery
PMI > 55 = Bitcoin takes off
PMI > 60 = Altcoin frenzy
This trend aligns with every bull market.
The reason this cycle is disappointing is that it broke the original pattern.
Halving occurred.....
Liquidity did not improve.
The PMI index has consistently failed to recover.
The Federal Reserve is still releasing funds through quantitative easing (QT).
That’s why 2025 is so chaotic; the liquidity cycle hasn’t even started.
But, everything is changing!
QT interval ends
Interest rates drop
Liquidity turns
PMI bottoms out
Institutional funds flow in through ETFs and DATS
Historically, we have never entered a bear market during periods of liquidity expansion.
So, perhaps the 4-year cycle hasn't been 'broken.'
Maybe it never existed from the start; it just happens to overlap with the liquidity cycle.
Maybe the real bull market has just begun!
Although the peak of Bitcoin just happened at the end of the '4-year cycle'
The data shows that this is a lie, and another factor just appeared at the same time!
The disturbing fact in the data is that halving did not drive the last three bull markets.
This perfectly aligns with the real driving factor - the expansion of global liquidity.
Please see the table below.
2013: Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy
2017: Actions of the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China
2020: The largest quantitative easing policy in history
Bitcoin's movement is driven by liquidity, not halving time constraints.
Every time global liquidity surges, the economy expands, and this capital flows into the cryptocurrency market!
There is one indicator that clearly reveals this: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
PMI < 50 = Contraction
PMI > 50 = Recovery
PMI > 55 = Bitcoin takes off
PMI > 60 = Altcoin frenzy
This trend aligns with every bull market.
The reason this cycle is disappointing is that it broke the original pattern.
Halving occurred.....
Liquidity did not improve.
The PMI index has consistently failed to recover.
The Federal Reserve is still releasing funds through quantitative easing (QT).
That’s why 2025 is so chaotic; the liquidity cycle hasn’t even started.
But, everything is changing!
QT interval ends
Interest rates drop
Liquidity turns
PMI bottoms out
Institutional funds flow in through ETFs and DATS
Historically, we have never entered a bear market during periods of liquidity expansion.
So, perhaps the 4-year cycle hasn't been 'broken.'
Maybe it never existed from the start; it just happens to overlap with the liquidity cycle.
Maybe the real bull market has just begun!
See original
In the past 4 cycles, BTC has repeated the same cycle:
2013:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 5th month
2017:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 6th month
2021:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 6th month
2025:
We have just entered the sixth month.
Will the next three months be a period of explosive growth for BTC? $BTC
2013:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 5th month
2017:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 6th month
2021:
Cycle length - 9 months
Bear trap - 6th month
2025:
We have just entered the sixth month.
Will the next three months be a period of explosive growth for BTC? $BTC
See original
If 126,000 is the top for BTC, then the ongoing bullish trend for Bitcoin may not have ended. In the past three cycles, BTC has touched the 200-day moving average level before continuing its downward trend. The price of Bitcoin could potentially rebound to levels between 100,000 and 104,000 before reversing $BTC
See original
Macro-wise, good news may not arrive immediately, but bad news is likely exhausted.
Some friends have asked whether the rate cut in December means all good news has been exhausted. I actually believe that, macro-wise, the bad news may have indeed been exhausted.
Of course, it may not necessarily rise; the end of bad news does not mean that there will definitely be good news.
┈┈➤ The Federal Reserve may implement intermittent rate cuts.
╰┈✦ Stop tapering.
First, the Federal Reserve will stop tapering on December 1. Subsequently, whether through intermittent rate cuts or continuous rate cuts, the dollar easing cycle will officially begin.
╰┈✦ Tight funding flow in commercial banks is one of the motives for rate cuts.
This topic has been discussed before, but there is one question that no one has asked: why, in a high-interest environment, when commercial banks can absorb more deposits, is there still funding tightness?
Of course, it may not necessarily rise; the end of bad news does not mean that there will definitely be good news.
┈┈➤ The Federal Reserve may implement intermittent rate cuts.
╰┈✦ Stop tapering.
First, the Federal Reserve will stop tapering on December 1. Subsequently, whether through intermittent rate cuts or continuous rate cuts, the dollar easing cycle will officially begin.
╰┈✦ Tight funding flow in commercial banks is one of the motives for rate cuts.
This topic has been discussed before, but there is one question that no one has asked: why, in a high-interest environment, when commercial banks can absorb more deposits, is there still funding tightness?
See original
Trading does not require too much technical analysis for entry and exit; instead of spending all day studying these techniques, it is better to cultivate your own courage to open positions.
In principle, you can enter long or short positions at any price level.
What matters is how to open large positions in a way that minimizes losses after a misjudgment; this is what should be focused on.
The amount made during a market movement and the amount of drawdown determines the quality of the trade.
The market exists because there are people opening long and short positions at all price levels; both long and short positions exist, which allows prices to exist. Therefore, in principle, you can open long or short positions anywhere.
But why do only 2% of people in the market earn 98% of the profits?
1. Who is losing money in the market?
1. Those who frequently engage in short-term trading are losing money because transaction fees will take the largest share of your profits;
2. Those who trade based on emotions are losing money, acting recklessly without a plan, and arbitrarily opening and closing positions are losing money;
3. Those who do not cut losses after a misjudgment are losing money;
4. Those with excessively large stop losses after entering the market are losing money;
5. Those with too high leverage and who do not stop losses in a timely manner are losing money.
2. Who is making money in the market?
1. Those who dare to open positions;
2. Those who dare to hold profitable positions after opening them are making money;
3. Those who dare to open positions and add to their profitable positions are making money;
The fluctuation range of a market movement is limited, and the size of the position determines the height of profits.
Many analysts or signal providers may analyze things in a convincing manner; in reality, they are either just talkers, or 10U warriors, or using demo accounts, or simply analyzing long and short positions. You should know that any reasonably sane person can provide a convincing analysis of the market, but in the financial market, analysis is the least useful.
Most people's purpose in analyzing is merely to prove themselves right, satisfy their vanity, and even lead you to follow their pace.
You cannot keep up.
In principle, you can enter long or short positions at any price level.
What matters is how to open large positions in a way that minimizes losses after a misjudgment; this is what should be focused on.
The amount made during a market movement and the amount of drawdown determines the quality of the trade.
The market exists because there are people opening long and short positions at all price levels; both long and short positions exist, which allows prices to exist. Therefore, in principle, you can open long or short positions anywhere.
But why do only 2% of people in the market earn 98% of the profits?
1. Who is losing money in the market?
1. Those who frequently engage in short-term trading are losing money because transaction fees will take the largest share of your profits;
2. Those who trade based on emotions are losing money, acting recklessly without a plan, and arbitrarily opening and closing positions are losing money;
3. Those who do not cut losses after a misjudgment are losing money;
4. Those with excessively large stop losses after entering the market are losing money;
5. Those with too high leverage and who do not stop losses in a timely manner are losing money.
2. Who is making money in the market?
1. Those who dare to open positions;
2. Those who dare to hold profitable positions after opening them are making money;
3. Those who dare to open positions and add to their profitable positions are making money;
The fluctuation range of a market movement is limited, and the size of the position determines the height of profits.
Many analysts or signal providers may analyze things in a convincing manner; in reality, they are either just talkers, or 10U warriors, or using demo accounts, or simply analyzing long and short positions. You should know that any reasonably sane person can provide a convincing analysis of the market, but in the financial market, analysis is the least useful.
Most people's purpose in analyzing is merely to prove themselves right, satisfy their vanity, and even lead you to follow their pace.
You cannot keep up.
See original
BBI indicator is so practical! The main force fears that you will use it simply but accurately.
BBI indicator is so practical! The main force fears that you will use it simply but accurately.
Many people have had this confusion: obviously, the K-line looks good, but when you buy, you end up trapped; feeling that it is going to drop, you hurry to sell, only to sell at the lowest point. It’s not that you have bad luck, nor is it that the main force is specifically targeting you, but rather that you have not found the 'core password' for analyzing the market.
Everyone usually keeps switching between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, yet treats the BBI indicator hidden in the trading software as a decoration—this simple tool, overlooked by 95% of retail investors, happens to be the 'mirror' that the main force cannot escape from when manipulating the market.
The main force can manipulate K-line shapes and create fake trading volumes to deceive retail investors into taking over, but they cannot deceive 'market average cost.' The essence of the BBI indicator is the 'collection' of multi-cycle costs; the massive capital of the main force leaves traces on BBI at every step of accumulation, ascent, and unloading. Today, I’ll explain BBI's adjustment methods, four core usages, and three pitfalls in plain language, combined with actual market scenarios, so that whether you are a newbie just entering the market or an experienced investor, you can use it right after reading, making the main force’s movements basically 'transparent' to you.
Many people have had this confusion: obviously, the K-line looks good, but when you buy, you end up trapped; feeling that it is going to drop, you hurry to sell, only to sell at the lowest point. It’s not that you have bad luck, nor is it that the main force is specifically targeting you, but rather that you have not found the 'core password' for analyzing the market.
Everyone usually keeps switching between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, yet treats the BBI indicator hidden in the trading software as a decoration—this simple tool, overlooked by 95% of retail investors, happens to be the 'mirror' that the main force cannot escape from when manipulating the market.
The main force can manipulate K-line shapes and create fake trading volumes to deceive retail investors into taking over, but they cannot deceive 'market average cost.' The essence of the BBI indicator is the 'collection' of multi-cycle costs; the massive capital of the main force leaves traces on BBI at every step of accumulation, ascent, and unloading. Today, I’ll explain BBI's adjustment methods, four core usages, and three pitfalls in plain language, combined with actual market scenarios, so that whether you are a newbie just entering the market or an experienced investor, you can use it right after reading, making the main force’s movements basically 'transparent' to you.
See original
Since stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies, what is the difference from foreign exchange?
Stablecoins and foreign exchange, although both pegged to fiat currencies, operate on completely different logics. You can understand them as follows: foreign exchange is the official, sovereign-level 'exchange between countries', while stablecoins are private, technology-driven 'on-chain vouchers'.
First layer: essence and credit, completely different.
This is the most essential difference, which determines everything else.
Foreign exchange: the US dollars and euros you exchange are ultimately guaranteed by the sovereign credit, economic strength, and military power of the issuing country. It is a 'national IOU', backed by law and the machinery of the state. 1 dollar is always worth 1 dollar because US law states so.
First layer: essence and credit, completely different.
This is the most essential difference, which determines everything else.
Foreign exchange: the US dollars and euros you exchange are ultimately guaranteed by the sovereign credit, economic strength, and military power of the issuing country. It is a 'national IOU', backed by law and the machinery of the state. 1 dollar is always worth 1 dollar because US law states so.
See original
Is it difficult to earn 100 U every day in the crypto world?
Is it difficult to earn 100 dollars a day in the crypto world? This question is like asking 'Is it difficult to earn 500 yuan a day driving Didi?'—it depends on what car you drive, how familiar you are with the roads, and whether you are willing to put in the time.
Do you want to earn a steady 100 dollars every day? That would be 36,500 dollars a year. So:
If you have 100,000 dollars, then you need an annual return of 36.5%. In a bull market, for someone knowledgeable, this is a challenging but potentially achievable goal, but the process will definitely have ups and downs and requires skill and mindset.
If you have 10,000 dollars, then the required annual return would be 365%. This goal is a bit 'fantastical', which means you have to play high-leverage contracts or go all in on altcoins that might go a hundred times or possibly to zero. This is basically gambling, not investing.
Do you want to earn a steady 100 dollars every day? That would be 36,500 dollars a year. So:
If you have 100,000 dollars, then you need an annual return of 36.5%. In a bull market, for someone knowledgeable, this is a challenging but potentially achievable goal, but the process will definitely have ups and downs and requires skill and mindset.
If you have 10,000 dollars, then the required annual return would be 365%. This goal is a bit 'fantastical', which means you have to play high-leverage contracts or go all in on altcoins that might go a hundred times or possibly to zero. This is basically gambling, not investing.
See original
How do major cryptocurrency exchanges achieve unified pricing?
Isn't it amazing to see the prices of various exchanges almost synchronized in real time? It feels like they have all agreed upon it. In fact, this is quite interesting; there is no centralized control, it's entirely calculated by the market itself, mainly driven by three forces.
1. The core power: global 'arbitrage hunters' (arbitrageurs)
These people, mainly from algorithmic trading teams, keep their eyes on the prices across global exchanges. Their logic is simple and straightforward:
Identifying price differences: for example, Bitcoin sells for $90,000 on exchange A, while it is instantaneously priced at $90,050 on exchange B.
1. The core power: global 'arbitrage hunters' (arbitrageurs)
These people, mainly from algorithmic trading teams, keep their eyes on the prices across global exchanges. Their logic is simple and straightforward:
Identifying price differences: for example, Bitcoin sells for $90,000 on exchange A, while it is instantaneously priced at $90,050 on exchange B.
See original
Why is the size of the Mina blockchain only 22KB?
Mina's feature of only 22KB is simply its biggest 'trump card'. This is thanks to its revolutionary core technology—zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs), which compress the entire state of the blockchain into a small 'fingerprint'.
You can think of traditional blockchains (like Bitcoin) as follows: every new person joining the network must download and verify the entire ledger from start to finish (hundreds of GB) to confirm the current state of 'who has how much money'. It's like having to recalculate every meal and every workout from childhood to now just to know a person's latest weight, which is very cumbersome.
You can think of traditional blockchains (like Bitcoin) as follows: every new person joining the network must download and verify the entire ledger from start to finish (hundreds of GB) to confirm the current state of 'who has how much money'. It's like having to recalculate every meal and every workout from childhood to now just to know a person's latest weight, which is very cumbersome.
See original
Why do cryptocurrency scams repeatedly succeed with influencers promoting schemes, brainwashing in the countryside, and creating 'get-rich-quick myths'?
Currently, these cryptocurrency scams are truly hard to guard against, but if you think about it carefully, they can deceive people because their tactics really boil down to just a few points.
First, they are particularly good at "creating idols" and "telling stories." Think about it, suddenly an "expert" or "master" appears online, frequently showing off luxury cars and houses, telling you that they achieved financial freedom through a certain cryptocurrency. A lot of what they say might be incomprehensible to us, like "blockchain revolution" or "next generation internet," which sounds particularly grand. At this point, people can easily feel intimidated, thinking, "If they understand so much, they must be right," and unknowingly believe in them. Their most powerful trick is to create anxiety: "Everyone else is getting on board, if you don’t follow, you’ll be poor forever!" Doesn’t that sound particularly piercing?
First, they are particularly good at "creating idols" and "telling stories." Think about it, suddenly an "expert" or "master" appears online, frequently showing off luxury cars and houses, telling you that they achieved financial freedom through a certain cryptocurrency. A lot of what they say might be incomprehensible to us, like "blockchain revolution" or "next generation internet," which sounds particularly grand. At this point, people can easily feel intimidated, thinking, "If they understand so much, they must be right," and unknowingly believe in them. Their most powerful trick is to create anxiety: "Everyone else is getting on board, if you don’t follow, you’ll be poor forever!" Doesn’t that sound particularly piercing?
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