SviatoslavGusev

Short-term holders of BTC are currently exiting their positions at a loss on average.

Sales are mainly coming from those who entered the market in recent weeks.

This is a typical redistribution phase, where weak hands exit and the position shifts to more patient participants.

BTC is squeezed in $8 billion liquidations on both sides

🔻 A drop below ~$85K = a total of ~$8 billion liquidations of longs

🔺 A rise to the zone ~$95–98K = also a total of ~$8 billion liquidations of shorts

Locally, the chances have leveled out 😈

November 6 discussed the risk of market cooling if we do not return 107k for BTC.

And for now, it seems we are following the scenario of previous cycles.

What are your expectations? I think I will make a review of the market state.

If Bloomberg is to be believed, yesterday's FOMC press conference was the most "dovish" since 2021.

They analyzed Powell's speech – there was minimal negativity.

However, this has not helped the markets so far, $BTC fell back to $90,000 overnight.

It is clearly visible how the market is literally 'walking on liquidations'. We approached a dense level from above and immediately received a rebound.

If we look more broadly, over the last week, there has clearly been an accumulation of long positions from below. The ratio of liquidations is currently about 6 billion long positions against 10 billion short positions.

Given yesterday's events, what do you think now?

Scary dreams $SOL and $TON of perfectionist entrepreneurs:

— It's good to create a product that nobody needs
— Effectively solve unimportant tasks
— Positively scale a negative economy
— Perfectly optimize what doesn't work
— Bring hypotheses to perfection in theory
— Sell yourself on the idea that mistakes are necessary "for the sake of experience"

A good entrepreneur never postpones a hypothesis that can be tested today until tomorrow. Especially before going to sleep, when all hypotheses seem brilliant. Especially if your business is tied to $BTC and $USDT

📆 Main events of the upcoming week

🇺🇸 Monday, December 8

No events

🇺🇸 Tuesday, December 9

🕕 18:00 – JOLTS: number of job openings

The indicator reflects employers' demand for labor. A decrease in the number of vacancies → cooling of the labor market → easing of rate expectations.

🇺🇸 Wednesday, December 10 – the main day of the week (Fed decision)

🕙 22:00 – Economic forecasts FOMC / Fed statement / Rate decision

Key block of the week. If the rate is lower than expected or the rhetoric is softer → support for risk-on.
A tougher tone → strengthening of the dollar.

🕤 22:30 – Powell's press conference

The main trigger for volatility. The market reacts to details: risks regarding inflation, expectations for the labor market, and signals about the rate trajectory in 2026.

🇺🇸 Thursday, December 11

🕟 16:30 – Initial claims for unemployment benefits

Increase in claims = cooling labor market. A decrease is an argument for a more hawkish Fed stance.

🇺🇸 Friday, December 12

No events

⚠️ Focus of the week:

The Fed decision and Powell's press conference. This will determine the market tone for the remainder of December.

Any softness in forecasts or statements could become a catalyst for local growth in crypto and stock indices.

Powell + service PMIs + Core PCE — a trio that will shape expectations for the December FOMC meeting this week.

When the crypto market accumulates more liquidations than were in October. At that time it was around 19 billion, now it seems we are waiting for 20+. Currently, 14.9 billion.

A brief summary of our community's post:

Initially, this may seem difficult, but knowing this metric really helps to foresee impending crises.

❓ What is ICE BofA High Yield OAS?

This is an indicator that reflects the additional yield investors require for the risk of defaults by companies with low ratings.

🔎 To put it simply:

An increase in OAS indicates heightened fear in the bond market.

👀 Why is this important?

When cheap bonds start to fall, investors fear that companies will find it harder to service their debts. Financing becomes more expensive, and risks increase. All of this puts pressure on both the S&P 500 and cryptocurrency.

📉 How this affects the markets:

A high OAS indicates stress and a withdrawal of money from risk-on assets.

A low OAS indicates a calm market and support for growth.

🪙 Why this is important for crypto:

Crypto is the riskiest part of the market, and during stress, liquidity leaves it first.

If you want to add the indicator to TradingView, use the ticker BAMLH0A0HYM2.

💥 More useful market analyses for free inside our community.

Because they are dumping coins mined several years ago. I sold TON for about ~300,000$ before the New Year's holidays.

ZEC: +240% in a month, +1600% in a year. Why is it growing specifically? ⚡

While Bitcoin falls below $90k, and altcoins continue to be at the bottom, Zcash has become the most discussed coin of this year.

Arthur Hayes has already stated: "ZEC could be worth $10k." Many funds share this opinion, even though the coin's price is currently only ~$600.

📈 Where does such growth come from?

As analysts say, the growth of ZEC is due to several factors that coincided at the same time:

• Report from Pantera Capital – a large fund that has openly supported Zcash as "the future of private money."

• Active discussions among large traders, including Hayes – it is they who have given the coin maximum exposure.

• Halving, which is expected to make the coin scarcer.

• Against the backdrop of the market decline, $ZEC has become the only asset showing a stable uptrend, which attracted speculative capital.

Amid all the euphoria, it is important to understand: the Zcash technology has not been updated in any way. Privacy has been its core function since 2016.

The main driver of this growth is the hype from influencers and large funds.

The altcoin market is weak, most coins are not growing, and ZEC has become a convenient "point" that large players are artificially pumping.

Bitcoin is back at the annual opening

This is not a coincidence. Over the month, long-term holders sold 815,000 $BTC: not in panic, but reallocating capital after a year and a half of growth. With a weak influx of new money, the market couldn't withstand the pressure, hence the –$1.1 trillion in market capitalization over 41 days.

💡 What does this mean?

Demand has dropped immediately across three lines: spot $ETF, corporate purchases, and money flows from Asia. Therefore, even moderate sales turn into sharp movements.

The annual opening is the zone of maximum accumulation for the year. Here, the market always reallocates risk: the weak exit, the strong average out, and funds replenish their portfolios.

⚡ Why is this important now?

Such unloadings often occur either before a final decline or before the start of a new range. In both phases, the market shakes out those who trade without a plan.

What do you think: is this preparation for a new cycle or are we going lower?

😀 After 14 years of work in the field of $BTC Bitcoin mining, the company Bitfury has decided to change direction and is launching an investment fund with a volume of $1 billion — the funds will go to support startups in the field of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.

Trading volume of futures on crypto indices
$BTC and $ETH on the first day at the Moscow Exchange amounted to 420,000,000 rubles.

During the downturn last week, altcoins showed unusual relative strength compared to $BTC , with most sectors actually outperforming the first cryptocurrency — Glassnode.

💳 Mastercard chose Polygon to create a system that allows sending cryptocurrency not to long wallet address, but directly to the username.

🪙 Revolut also chose Polygon as the main crypto-infrastructure for payments, trading, and staking.
Is something brewing?

🧬 The Ethereum Foundation $ETH presented the concept of the Ethereum Interoperability Layer (EIL) — a unified compatibility layer that will combine all Layer2 networks into a cohesive ecosystem.


Thanks to this, users will be able to perform operations between different L2s directly from their wallets, without bridges and third-party relays.


Essentially, this is a step towards making all L2s operate as a single common Ethereum blockchain.
$ETH

Miners have extracted 95% of the total Bitcoin supply — yesterday the volume of mined coins exceeded 19.95 million $BTC from Satoshi Nakamoto's programmed limit of 21 million.


Emission slows down with each halving: after April 2024, the block reward decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 $BTC and now miners produce about 450 $BTC per day instead of the previous 900.


Although the main part of the coins is already in circulation, the last 5% will be mined slowly — until the year 2140, and Bitcoin is gradually transitioning to an economy where user fees play a key role in supporting the hash rate and network security against mining difficulty at historical highs of 152.27 T.