Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
974 Posts
Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
Chief Investment Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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Sales of newly constructed homes saw a month-over-month increase of 1.6 percent in June. While this growth came in below the estimated 4.8 percent rise, it represents a positive shift from the previous period's 4.3 percent decline, a figure that was recently revised upward from an originally reported 7.3 percent drop. On the pricing side, the median cost of a new home fell by 3.3 percent compared to the prior month, bringing the value to $398,300. At the same time, the average selling price was recorded at $475,400.
Here is an update on the July economic indicators provided by @SPGlobalPMI. For the United States Manufacturing sector, the index experienced a slight decline, settling at 53.8. This result came in lower than the estimated 54.4 and dropped slightly from the previous reading of 53.9.
On the other hand, the Services PMI showed positive momentum by climbing to 53.6, comfortably beating both the projected 51.5 and the earlier figure of 51.2.
Reflecting this growth, the Composite PMI similarly rose to 53.6. This composite score outperformed expectations, surpassing the forecast of 52.2 as well as the prior mark of 51.9.
On the other hand, the Services PMI showed positive momentum by climbing to 53.6, comfortably beating both the projected 51.5 and the earlier figure of 51.2.
Reflecting this growth, the Composite PMI similarly rose to 53.6. This composite score outperformed expectations, surpassing the forecast of 52.2 as well as the prior mark of 51.9.
A sector by sector breakdown of the percentage of stocks currently trading at their 4w and 52w highs.
Recent data from the @philadelphiafed services survey reveals a positive shift for July, with firm-level activity climbing to +17.5 from a previous reading of +2.4. Looking ahead, future expectations have also made a strong comeback by pushing firmly into expansion territory. This metric reached +41.9, representing a significant turnaround from the -0.3 recorded last month and establishing the highest point seen since November 2024.
A data table detailing the index drawdowns alongside the outperforming percentage
QQQETF-1.21%
SPYETF-0.08%
Below is an overview of how the various market sectors and indexes performed on Friday, as well as their results for the MTD and YTD periods.
Graphs Depicting MA Breadth
Individuals responding to the @NewYorkFed manufacturing survey indicated that the capex outlook improved over the course of July. Even with this recent strengthening, current expectations for capital expenditures remain anchored near their historical midpoint and are sitting right around the long-term average.
The latest economic data reveals that the Producer Price Index experienced a year-over-year climb of 5.5 percent in June. This result is noticeably softer than the anticipated 6.2 percent increase. In addition, the previously reported growth rate was revised downward from 6.5 percent to an updated 6 percent. Looking at the core Producer Price Index, the metric advanced by 4.7 percent. This core figure also came in below expectations, trailing both the forecasted 5.1 percent and the prior reading of 4.9 percent.
When reviewing the month-over-month numbers for June, the consumer price index showed #inflation sitting at -0.4%, which came in lower than the estimated -0.1% and marked a noticeable shift from the previous +0.5%. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index registered a flat 0.0%, arriving below both the projected +0.2% and the prior reading of +0.2%.
Could we be heading back into the Temperamental Era? @KevRGordon and I delve into this possibility in our recently published #Insights report. To give you a clearer perspective, we thoroughly analyze and contrast the Great Moderation Era with the Temperamental Era. Discover our complete findings by reading the article here:
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/great-moderation-era-drifting-away
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/great-moderation-era-drifting-away
A substantial decline was observed in the inventories component of the ISM Services PMI during June. This significant drop points to a positive shift, indicating that the strain from early purchasing driven by tariffs and wars is finally beginning to fade.
A look at the performance of the Baskets across the YTD and QTD timeframes, including a review of the correction month of March.
SPYETF-0.08%
The MA breadth charts are now fully up to date, incorporating all data through the end of yesterday's market close.
QQQETF-1.21%
SPYETF-0.08%
The recently released June ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates a slight cooling, with the headline figure dipping to 53.3. This outcome came in below the estimated 53.9 and represents a decrease compared to the prior reading of 54.0.
Diving into the specific metrics of the report, we can observe a downward trend in a couple of key areas. The index for new orders decreased to 56.0, stepping back from a prior level of 56.8. Meanwhile, the prices paid category saw a notable reduction, dropping to 73.0 from the prior 82.1. Conversely, the employment metric brought some positive movement, climbing to 49.7 against the prior figure of 48.6.
Diving into the specific metrics of the report, we can observe a downward trend in a couple of key areas. The index for new orders decreased to 56.0, stepping back from a prior level of 56.8. Meanwhile, the prices paid category saw a notable reduction, dropping to 73.0 from the prior 82.1. Conversely, the employment metric brought some positive movement, climbing to 49.7 against the prior figure of 48.6.
Let us take a look at the latest performance updates. The details below outline the index drawdowns as well as the % outperforming, with all figures current right up through yesterday's market close.
Speaking with @KeithMcCullough from @Hedgeye is consistently a rewarding experience. I invite you to tune in to the most recent release of the #OnInvesting podcast. During this episode, @CollinMartinCS and I also dive into a comprehensive discussion about the markets. You can catch our entire conversation by visiting this link: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-happens-after-peak-inflation-with-keith-mccullough
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