Bitcoin and gold have shown significant divergence in trends, and the narrative of "digital gold" faces real-world tests.
Recently, the trends of gold and Bitcoin have diverged significantly, prompting the market to re-evaluate the narrative of "digital gold."
On September 23, the price of gold surpassed $3,790 per ounce, setting a historic high, while BTC saw a sharp correction the day before, triggering about $1.8 billion in contract liquidations. This contrast highlights the different performances of these two asset classes under macro pressures.
This phenomenon indicates that amidst a stronger dollar, high U.S. Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks, gold's safe-haven properties are fully demonstrated.
Analysts point out that the 43.68% increase in gold prices this year is attributed to central banks' continued accumulation and its solid position as a geopolitical hedge, whereas this time-tested safe-haven consensus is not yet fully established for BTC.
In contrast, in the cryptocurrency market, as BTC's price dropped from $116,000 to below $112,000 on Monday, over 400,000 contract traders faced liquidation, with long positions accounting for as much as 91.7%. This phenomenon also exposes the inherent fragility of the cryptocurrency market under high leverage conditions.
Despite the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis point rate cut the previous week, the unexpected strength of the dollar and inflation concerns have continued to pressure cryptocurrencies, casting doubt on their role as a hedge in the current macro environment.
From a market positioning standpoint, Bitcoin's return rate of 20.55% this year is significantly lower than gold's 43.68% increase, highlighting that the two asset classes are at different stages of development.
Analysts believe that gold leverages cross-cycle consensus to function as a safe haven, whereas Bitcoin remains susceptible to short-term factors such as liquidity, leverage, and regulation. Therefore, its status as a store of value still requires time for validation.
In summary, the recent volatility in Bitcoin's price has also prompted investors to re-examine the core differences in its actual positioning compared to gold.
Thus, for Bitcoin to truly achieve its "digital gold" positioning, it must prove that under extreme market conditions, it possesses safe-haven attributes and stability comparable to traditional safe-haven assets (like gold), and this validation process still needs to undergo multiple economic cycles.
