Philippiens4-13
2.9k Posts
Philippiens4-13
Open Trade
BTC Holder
High-Frequency Trader
4.1 Years
2.0K+ Following
245 Followers
43 Liked
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
$BTC This type of chart is based on a **repeating cycle** assumption: each bearish phase (marked "426J") would last about the same number of days in every cycle, so the next trough would line up at the same time interval after the current peak—hence the projection to late 2026/early 2027.
A few things to keep in mind before you trust it:
- **Very small sample size**: we’re only talking about 3–4 historical cycles (2013, 2018, 2022...). Statistically, that’s not enough to establish a reliable rule—more like an ex post observation than a robust prediction.
- **The context changes**: past cycles were largely driven by the BTC halving (roughly every 4 years) and by a market that was still young and not very institutionalized. Today, with ETFs, institutional flows, and a much larger market cap, the market’s dynamics have changed—nothing guarantees the cycle mechanics remain identical.
- **Confirmation bias risk**: charts like this (rectangles + arrows with fixed durations) are often adjusted afterward to “fit” the past data, making them visually convincing without proving causation.
That said, the idea isn’t unreasonable by itself: the 4-year cycles tied to halving are still a framework used by many traders. But I’d suggest treating it as **one scenario among others**, not a certainty—one you should cross-check with on-chain data, market sentiment, and macro flows (rates, liquidity) rather than relying only on the chart’s geometry.
A few things to keep in mind before you trust it:
- **Very small sample size**: we’re only talking about 3–4 historical cycles (2013, 2018, 2022...). Statistically, that’s not enough to establish a reliable rule—more like an ex post observation than a robust prediction.
- **The context changes**: past cycles were largely driven by the BTC halving (roughly every 4 years) and by a market that was still young and not very institutionalized. Today, with ETFs, institutional flows, and a much larger market cap, the market’s dynamics have changed—nothing guarantees the cycle mechanics remain identical.
- **Confirmation bias risk**: charts like this (rectangles + arrows with fixed durations) are often adjusted afterward to “fit” the past data, making them visually convincing without proving causation.
That said, the idea isn’t unreasonable by itself: the 4-year cycles tied to halving are still a framework used by many traders. But I’d suggest treating it as **one scenario among others**, not a certainty—one you should cross-check with on-chain data, market sentiment, and macro flows (rates, liquidity) rather than relying only on the chart’s geometry.
courage one day it will pay $BTC on we will #Millionnaire
Dramane crytos
·
--
In short, here are some of my collections. I wanted your advice on how to grow my collection—what pieces would you recommend for me right now?
#Binance #TradingTales
#Binance #TradingTales
It's looking good in crypto, especially in trading. My next target. $BTC
Meilleurs vœux !
From AMARRYS
Pronostic sur la coupe du Monde. come grab your share of rewards $BNB this holiday
like&followMe
From AMARRYS
B
Quoted content has been removed
Hello, just share
To analyze trading indicators, here are the key elements to know:
What is a trading indicator?
Trading indicators are mathematical calculations represented by lines, channels, or figures on a price chart that help traders identify signals and trends in the market.[ig]
The 4 categories of indicators
CategoryRoleExamplesTrendIdentify market directionMoving Average (MA), MACD, IchimokuMomentumMeasure trend strengthRSI, Stochastic OscillatorVolatilityAssess price variationsBollinger Bands, Standard DeviationVolumeAnalyze market activityVolume, OBV
The 10 most popular indicators[home]
Moving Average (MA) – Analyzes support/resistance and historical prices[ig]
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – Responds faster to price changes
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Measures overbought/oversold conditions
MACD – Convergence/divergence of moving averages to detect momentum
Bollinger Bands – Visualizes volatility and price ranges[etoro]
Stochastic Oscillator – Identifies reversal points
Fibonacci Retracements – Potential support/resistance levels
Ichimoku Cloud – Combines trend, support/resistance, and momentum
Standard Deviation – Statistical measure of volatility
Average Directional Index (ADX) – Trend strength
Key rules for effective analysis[etoro]
Never use an indicator in isolation – Combine a few complementary ones
Avoid using too many – Too many indicators muddy the signals
Always confirm signals – A buy signal should be confirmed by multiple indicators
Combine with price action – Use technical analysis alongside your own chart reading
Adapt to market conditions – Select indicators based on the current situation
Stay true to your trading plan – Always apply your established rules
For cryptocurrencies on Binance, you can check out the analyses
What is a trading indicator?
Trading indicators are mathematical calculations represented by lines, channels, or figures on a price chart that help traders identify signals and trends in the market.[ig]
The 4 categories of indicators
CategoryRoleExamplesTrendIdentify market directionMoving Average (MA), MACD, IchimokuMomentumMeasure trend strengthRSI, Stochastic OscillatorVolatilityAssess price variationsBollinger Bands, Standard DeviationVolumeAnalyze market activityVolume, OBV
The 10 most popular indicators[home]
Moving Average (MA) – Analyzes support/resistance and historical prices[ig]
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – Responds faster to price changes
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Measures overbought/oversold conditions
MACD – Convergence/divergence of moving averages to detect momentum
Bollinger Bands – Visualizes volatility and price ranges[etoro]
Stochastic Oscillator – Identifies reversal points
Fibonacci Retracements – Potential support/resistance levels
Ichimoku Cloud – Combines trend, support/resistance, and momentum
Standard Deviation – Statistical measure of volatility
Average Directional Index (ADX) – Trend strength
Key rules for effective analysis[etoro]
Never use an indicator in isolation – Combine a few complementary ones
Avoid using too many – Too many indicators muddy the signals
Always confirm signals – A buy signal should be confirmed by multiple indicators
Combine with price action – Use technical analysis alongside your own chart reading
Adapt to market conditions – Select indicators based on the current situation
Stay true to your trading plan – Always apply your established rules
For cryptocurrencies on Binance, you can check out the analyses
Join meand earn
#2025withBinance Start your crypto story with the annual recap @Binance and share your highlights! #2025withBinance.
👉 Sign up with my link and get 100 USD in rewards! https://www.binance.com/year-in-review/2025-with-binance?ref=469169599
👉 Sign up with my link and get 100 USD in rewards! https://www.binance.com/year-in-review/2025-with-binance?ref=469169599
ok
Quoted content has been removed
#Uni #Uniusdt Analysis
Premium Analysis
·
--
Bullish🔥$UNI Still Bearish but Exhaustion Building – Counter-Trend Long Idea
Price ~5.17 after -45% crash from 9.34. Now consolidating 4.85-5.20 zone with multiple long lower wicks → strong rejection of lower prices. Volume fading hard on recent drops (latest candle 25k vs prior 44M) = classic selling exhaustion.
Flows: Heavy 24H/7D outflows (-6.1M/-22.3M) but 12H turned positive (+3.7M). Short-term still weak but momentum slowing.
$UNI Setup long
- Entry: 5.00-5.10 now or better 4.85-4.90 retest
- SL: 4.75 (below swing low/Support)
- TP1: 5.395
- TP2: 5.834
Counter-trend = higher risk. Bearish structure still in control, so tight stops mandatory. Break 4.75 and idea dead. #UNI #UNIUSDT #uniswap
Price ~5.17 after -45% crash from 9.34. Now consolidating 4.85-5.20 zone with multiple long lower wicks → strong rejection of lower prices. Volume fading hard on recent drops (latest candle 25k vs prior 44M) = classic selling exhaustion.
Flows: Heavy 24H/7D outflows (-6.1M/-22.3M) but 12H turned positive (+3.7M). Short-term still weak but momentum slowing.
$UNI Setup long
- Entry: 5.00-5.10 now or better 4.85-4.90 retest
- SL: 4.75 (below swing low/Support)
- TP1: 5.395
- TP2: 5.834
Counter-trend = higher risk. Bearish structure still in control, so tight stops mandatory. Break 4.75 and idea dead. #UNI #UNIUSDT #uniswap
Log in to explore more content