Mr-Zhusang

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2026.8.13 #btc The crypto market has started to remain choppy and continues to fluctuate through August, without truly breaking out into a larger, clear trend direction. Because the expected rate hike in September is like a sword hanging over the market’s head. Both bulls and bears are unwilling to launch aggressive moves. Yesterday’s CPI data met market expectations; after a push higher, it ultimately pulled back. The market is currently in a trough-like consolidation state. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is moving within a choppy box range. The market is prone to wick spikes that sweep stops—avoid chasing rallies or selling into weakness. Instead, wait for price to approach the upper and lower edges of the range before setting up trades. BTC: Range-bound consolidation. During the day, look for a rebound/repair; at night, expect direction to become clearer. Market sentiment indicators show that bears are slightly dominating the tape. Overall liquidity continues to contract, with no incremental capital entering from either side; the market maintains a pattern of narrow-range, high-level consolidation. On the daily timeframe, trading volume has started to shrink while the market enters consolidation. The MACD DIF and DEA are sticking together and flattening, and the momentum from the red/green histogram is weak. Currently, on the 1-hour timeframe, there is an accelerated bullish attack state. Momentum alignment may bring a small push higher. Support: 63200-63500, 62200-62500. Resistance: 64500-65000, 65500-66000. ETH: Go long first, then short later—the daily bearish cycle has not been fully completed. Technical indicators EMA7 and EMA30 are almost glued together, a typical signal of sideways consolidation. Price is trading above the midline 1885. The Bollinger Bands opening has begun to narrow, suggesting volatility is about to expand. The market is currently stabilizing at the bottom; the 1- and 2-hour timeframes have already adjusted enough, offering conditions suitable for going long. On the daily timeframe, it is still within a bearish cycle. Support: 1872, 1850-1862. Resistance: 1900-1910, 1930, 1965

2026.8.13 #btc
The crypto market has started to remain choppy and continues to fluctuate through August, without truly breaking out into a larger, clear trend direction. Because the expected rate hike in September is like a sword hanging over the market’s head. Both bulls and bears are unwilling to launch aggressive moves. Yesterday’s CPI data met market expectations; after a push higher, it ultimately pulled back. The market is currently in a trough-like consolidation state.
On the 4-hour timeframe, price is moving within a choppy box range. The market is prone to wick spikes that sweep stops—avoid chasing rallies or selling into weakness. Instead, wait for price to approach the upper and lower edges of the range before setting up trades.
BTC: Range-bound consolidation. During the day, look for a rebound/repair; at night, expect direction to become clearer. Market sentiment indicators show that bears are slightly dominating the tape. Overall liquidity continues to contract, with no incremental capital entering from either side; the market maintains a pattern of narrow-range, high-level consolidation. On the daily timeframe, trading volume has started to shrink while the market enters consolidation. The MACD DIF and DEA are sticking together and flattening, and the momentum from the red/green histogram is weak. Currently, on the 1-hour timeframe, there is an accelerated bullish attack state. Momentum alignment may bring a small push higher.
Support: 63200-63500, 62200-62500. Resistance: 64500-65000, 65500-66000.
ETH: Go long first, then short later—the daily bearish cycle has not been fully completed. Technical indicators EMA7 and EMA30 are almost glued together, a typical signal of sideways consolidation. Price is trading above the midline 1885. The Bollinger Bands opening has begun to narrow, suggesting volatility is about to expand. The market is currently stabilizing at the bottom; the 1- and 2-hour timeframes have already adjusted enough, offering conditions suitable for going long. On the daily timeframe, it is still within a bearish cycle.
Support: 1872, 1850-1862. Resistance: 1900-1910, 1930, 1965

2026.8.12 #btc A high-level range-bound consolidation for 5 days finally chose the downside. Yesterday’s price action had strong “misdirection”: throughout the day it kept luring longs, and both time and price range can easily create illusions. Once you’re stubbornly bullish and keep buying, it switches into a (slaughter-slaughter) mode. It has broken below the previous day’s breakout point. Tonight, CPI is the biggest catalyst. Around the data release, it’s normal to see quick spikes and deep wicks (“needle” moves). Don’t chase or sell into strength—wait until the market stabilizes, then observe. In the past 24 hours, about $116.55 million was liquidated across the entire network. BTC and ETH derivatives contracts are showing a net-short position, with bearish sentiment holding the upper hand. For BTC (Big Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, the CPI data will determine direction. BTC is currently around 63,700 and is testing the 4-hour Bollinger lower-band support. 63,700 is an important 4-hour support/resistance “swap zone.” If the candle body breaks below it, there’s a serious risk of a sharp pullback. After last night’s selloff, price is still in the repair phase. On cycles below 12 hours, conditions favor going long; on the daily chart, it remains a bearish cycle—this is a short setup logic. In other words: a year-end rebound, not a reversal. Supports: 63,300–63,500; 62,700. Resistances: 64,800–65,300; 65,500–66,000. For ETH (Second Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, CPI data will determine direction. After yesterday surged to 1,897 and then pulled back, it probed down to a low of 1,852 before slightly recovering. Near-term downward momentum has been somewhat released. The Bollinger midline is at 1,888, and price has already broken below that level. It is now probing the lower-band support at 1,848. Note that ETH sentiment is stronger (more aggressive), so the volatility will be larger than BTC. Setting stop-loss at the same levels is easy to get swept. Below 12 hours, look for rebounds; on the 12-hour and daily charts, bearish cycles still favor downside. In the intraday window: expect a rebound first, then look to short. Supports: 1,850–1,855; 1,820–1,832. Resistances: 1,888; 1,900–1,930; 1,950

2026.8.12 #btc
A high-level range-bound consolidation for 5 days finally chose the downside. Yesterday’s price action had strong “misdirection”: throughout the day it kept luring longs, and both time and price range can easily create illusions. Once you’re stubbornly bullish and keep buying, it switches into a (slaughter-slaughter) mode. It has broken below the previous day’s breakout point. Tonight, CPI is the biggest catalyst. Around the data release, it’s normal to see quick spikes and deep wicks (“needle” moves). Don’t chase or sell into strength—wait until the market stabilizes, then observe.
In the past 24 hours, about $116.55 million was liquidated across the entire network. BTC and ETH derivatives contracts are showing a net-short position, with bearish sentiment holding the upper hand.
For BTC (Big Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, the CPI data will determine direction. BTC is currently around 63,700 and is testing the 4-hour Bollinger lower-band support. 63,700 is an important 4-hour support/resistance “swap zone.” If the candle body breaks below it, there’s a serious risk of a sharp pullback. After last night’s selloff, price is still in the repair phase. On cycles below 12 hours, conditions favor going long; on the daily chart, it remains a bearish cycle—this is a short setup logic. In other words: a year-end rebound, not a reversal.
Supports: 63,300–63,500; 62,700. Resistances: 64,800–65,300; 65,500–66,000.
For ETH (Second Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, CPI data will determine direction. After yesterday surged to 1,897 and then pulled back, it probed down to a low of 1,852 before slightly recovering. Near-term downward momentum has been somewhat released. The Bollinger midline is at 1,888, and price has already broken below that level. It is now probing the lower-band support at 1,848. Note that ETH sentiment is stronger (more aggressive), so the volatility will be larger than BTC. Setting stop-loss at the same levels is easy to get swept. Below 12 hours, look for rebounds; on the 12-hour and daily charts, bearish cycles still favor downside. In the intraday window: expect a rebound first, then look to short.
Supports: 1,850–1,855; 1,820–1,832. Resistances: 1,888; 1,900–1,930; 1,950

2026.8.11 #BTC On Monday, efforts to push higher failed to yield results. Momentum continued to weaken; it tried the same point six times—proof that there’s confidence without strength. Ultimately, during yesterday’s U.S. stock market session, it chose to move downward. This has kicked off a daily-chart-level correction. The timeframes below 4 hours are already in place, but the pullbacks on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not ended yet. If today can continue the adjustment for one more day, we can wait for a bullish-side resonance. CPI data risk: This Wednesday’s CPI is the key variable. If it comes in below expectations, rate-cut expectations will heat up, benefiting risk assets. If it comes in above expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will rise back above 50%. Before the data release, volatility has already fallen to a year-to-date low—this is “calm before the storm.” After a breakdown, volatility may expand sharply. BTC: A trend setup of “sell the rebound, and chase short on a breakdown.” In choppy action, it’s easy to get whipsawed and stopped out, so keep exposure light and use strict stop-losses. In the early phase, price stayed in a tight range of 64,600–65,400 for a long time. After bullish momentum was continuously overdrawn, it broke through all short-term supports with a long bearish real body. Current price is hugging the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the order book, the主动主动 sell order ratio is as high as 83.69%, indicating extremely weak buy/sustainment strength. The short-term bearish trend has been formally established. The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover has widened; bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. RSI on the 1-hour chart is 33.84—still not in the oversold zone, so there’s room further down. Rebound strength is limited. Support: 63,300–63,500; 62,200–62,600. Resistance: 64,300; 64,800–65,200. ETH ("second coin"): Focus on shorting from high levels. In recent days, ETH’s price action has been consistently weaker than BTC. The daily candlestick chart is in a repair phase; the EMA30 and EMA60 are both pressing in the 1,870–1,905 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have been steadily tightening, and the EMA series are intertwined—bulls and bears are becoming more balanced. This is a classic sideways “grinding” pattern, waiting for a directional breakout. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to face downward pressure and tends to have greater volatility. After BTC breaks down, ETH’s drop is often more severe. If there is a volume-backed selloff and a bottom stabilizes, there may also be opportunities for low-long entries today. Current market liquidity is insufficient, but after a sharp drop, there will inevitably be a rebound/repair. Support: 1,860–1,870; 1,847–1,855. Resistance: 1,890–1,900; 1,910–1,933

2026.8.11 #BTC
On Monday, efforts to push higher failed to yield results. Momentum continued to weaken; it tried the same point six times—proof that there’s confidence without strength. Ultimately, during yesterday’s U.S. stock market session, it chose to move downward. This has kicked off a daily-chart-level correction. The timeframes below 4 hours are already in place, but the pullbacks on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not ended yet. If today can continue the adjustment for one more day, we can wait for a bullish-side resonance.

CPI data risk: This Wednesday’s CPI is the key variable. If it comes in below expectations, rate-cut expectations will heat up, benefiting risk assets. If it comes in above expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will rise back above 50%. Before the data release, volatility has already fallen to a year-to-date low—this is “calm before the storm.” After a breakdown, volatility may expand sharply.

BTC: A trend setup of “sell the rebound, and chase short on a breakdown.” In choppy action, it’s easy to get whipsawed and stopped out, so keep exposure light and use strict stop-losses. In the early phase, price stayed in a tight range of 64,600–65,400 for a long time. After bullish momentum was continuously overdrawn, it broke through all short-term supports with a long bearish real body. Current price is hugging the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the order book, the主动主动 sell order ratio is as high as 83.69%, indicating extremely weak buy/sustainment strength. The short-term bearish trend has been formally established. The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover has widened; bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. RSI on the 1-hour chart is 33.84—still not in the oversold zone, so there’s room further down. Rebound strength is limited.
Support: 63,300–63,500; 62,200–62,600. Resistance: 64,300; 64,800–65,200.

ETH ("second coin"): Focus on shorting from high levels. In recent days, ETH’s price action has been consistently weaker than BTC. The daily candlestick chart is in a repair phase; the EMA30 and EMA60 are both pressing in the 1,870–1,905 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have been steadily tightening, and the EMA series are intertwined—bulls and bears are becoming more balanced. This is a classic sideways “grinding” pattern, waiting for a directional breakout.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to face downward pressure and tends to have greater volatility. After BTC breaks down, ETH’s drop is often more severe. If there is a volume-backed selloff and a bottom stabilizes, there may also be opportunities for low-long entries today. Current market liquidity is insufficient, but after a sharp drop, there will inevitably be a rebound/repair.
Support: 1,860–1,870; 1,847–1,855. Resistance: 1,890–1,900; 1,910–1,933

2026.8.9 #btc On Sunday, the weekly K chart will close tomorrow at 8:00. August 9 marks the opening day of the BIP-110 mandatory signal window, but miner support is only about 2.42%, far below the 55% threshold required for locking. The probability of an actual chain split is relatively low; however, in a low-liquidity weekend environment, uncertainty alone is enough to amplify short-term volatility. If the weekly chart cannot close as a real bullish body covering last week’s bearish candle body, then it’s a rebound repair, not a reversal. August 9 is also a relatively critical day: both overhead resistance and below support are clearly defined. The weekly and monthly cycles are still bullish. After the daily golden cross on August 7, momentum has not accelerated over the weekend. Cycles can accelerate or pull back—there are variables. BTC (Big Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. This week, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are about $1.1 billion, the strongest week since April. However, technically, the 65,500–67,000 area is a solid supply zone, and the 200-day EMA (72,300) is still trending downward. Bulls and bears are currently battling at key levels. The current range direction is not clear; only once momentum expands should you look for follow-through. Overall, buying dips has the advantage. Support: 64,000–64,477, 63,500. Resistance: 65,200–65,700, 66,300–66,800 ETH (Second Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. When liquidity is poor, it often becomes a breakout target for some capital. But the so-called “small independent” for ETH can perform well only if the Big Pie does not produce a sharp pullback with heavy tug-of-war. Eventual polarization will revert to consistency. Currently, price is in a 2–4 hour pullback cycle and a 1-hour rebound cycle. The cycles are not uniform, with momentum fading. One thing to watch: if today spikes higher again but cannot break above the intra-week high and then shows a high-volume bearish engulfing candle (large bearish candle on increased volume), short-seller power may concentrate and explode. Support: 1906–1911, 1850–1870. Resistance: 1927, 1939, 1955–1964, 1982

2026.8.9 #btc
On Sunday, the weekly K chart will close tomorrow at 8:00. August 9 marks the opening day of the BIP-110 mandatory signal window, but miner support is only about 2.42%, far below the 55% threshold required for locking. The probability of an actual chain split is relatively low; however, in a low-liquidity weekend environment, uncertainty alone is enough to amplify short-term volatility. If the weekly chart cannot close as a real bullish body covering last week’s bearish candle body, then it’s a rebound repair, not a reversal. August 9 is also a relatively critical day: both overhead resistance and below support are clearly defined. The weekly and monthly cycles are still bullish. After the daily golden cross on August 7, momentum has not accelerated over the weekend. Cycles can accelerate or pull back—there are variables.

BTC (Big Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. This week, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are about $1.1 billion, the strongest week since April. However, technically, the 65,500–67,000 area is a solid supply zone, and the 200-day EMA (72,300) is still trending downward. Bulls and bears are currently battling at key levels. The current range direction is not clear; only once momentum expands should you look for follow-through. Overall, buying dips has the advantage. Support: 64,000–64,477, 63,500. Resistance: 65,200–65,700, 66,300–66,800

ETH (Second Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. When liquidity is poor, it often becomes a breakout target for some capital. But the so-called “small independent” for ETH can perform well only if the Big Pie does not produce a sharp pullback with heavy tug-of-war. Eventual polarization will revert to consistency. Currently, price is in a 2–4 hour pullback cycle and a 1-hour rebound cycle. The cycles are not uniform, with momentum fading. One thing to watch: if today spikes higher again but cannot break above the intra-week high and then shows a high-volume bearish engulfing candle (large bearish candle on increased volume), short-seller power may concentrate and explode. Support: 1906–1911, 1850–1870. Resistance: 1927, 1939, 1955–1964, 1982

2026.8.8 #btc
Saturday and Sunday are also the worst days of the week for liquidity. But on Saturdays, because there’s no influence from US stocks, Trump is more likely to start “spouting nonsense” at this time to manipulate the market. Contracts with stop-losses are in place to guard against such sudden reversals. The probability of the Fed raising rates in September has risen to 73.6%, and a “higher for longer” rate environment suppresses valuations of risk assets. August is one of the weakest months in history; in the past 13 years, stocks have declined in 9 of those years.
Geopolitics: The Iran–US talks are currently the biggest variable. If the negotiations break down, it could trigger a rapid surge in safe-haven sentiment.
BTC (Big Pie): Range-bound consolidation. ETFs have recently shown signs of net outflows, and institutional demand has cooled somewhat. On August 1st, 62220 and on August 3rd, 62210 formed a double-bottom structure. On August 4th, a breakout above 64000 on increased volume confirmed bullish dominance. The current 4-hour chart shows price stabilizing and trading above the short-term moving averages, with short-term momentum leaning bullish.
Support: 64150-64650, 63500-64000; Resistance: 65500-66000
ETH (Second Pie): Consolidation with a slight bullish bias. After a continuous decline from the high of 1982, it bottomed around 1820 and then rebounded in line with the Big Pie. On the 4-hour timeframe, it remains in a downtrend with a descending channel where new highs keep moving lower; it is still in the consolidation-recovery phase within the bearish trend. Go long by quickly probing downward for a dip. Spike upward to hit resistance and then prepare to take shorts. Wait when trading becomes range-bound and sideways.
Support: 1905, 1880-1892, 1860; Resistance: 1920-1930, 1950, 1982

2026.8.7 #btc Today is Friday. Watch whether volatility can increase. In recent days, the crypto market has been repeatedly oscillating within a range. When U.S. stocks see high volatility, crypto may occasionally follow, but it is still difficult to escape the range-bound structure. Each attempt to break upward has met with insufficient follow-through, with very limited funds stepping in. Liquidity remains tight—too poor to support sustained upside. Although the pattern suggests a bullish bias, the momentum cannot meet the requirements for continuous rising. The only option is to pull back again, then accumulate strength for another push. Today, pay attention to the impact of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on the market. Big Bitcoin (BTC): For now, expect range-bound movement. Whether NFP can help price find direction remains to be seen. We are in a typical “pullback under pressure at the highs, higher lows forming” accumulation phase. On the daily chart, RSI is neutral. MACD is negative but narrowing, not yet forming a golden cross. ADX is weak—direction is about to be chosen. 65,000 is the key line between bulls and bears: a breakout could trigger liquidation of shorts and potentially accelerate the upside; if it meets resistance, there is risk of a pullback toward 64,000 and even 63,200. Neither side has formed clear dominance yet. On the 1-hour chart, MACD histogram bars are negative, but the decline is shrinking. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish MACD histogram bars are contracting, but no death cross has formed. On the daily chart, the MACD negative value is narrowing, but a golden cross has not yet formed. The 4-hour MACD has shown a divergence signal, suggesting a need for a pullback. Order book depth: buy/sell ratio is 2.00, and the thickness of resting orders below is close to twice as much. Support: 64,000; 63,200 Resistance: 65,048; 65,400; 66,200 Big Ethereum (ETH): Still expect range-bound movement, though technically the overall bias is strong. It is rebounding in sync with BTC and repairing, but this is still a linked market—there is no independent strong trend yet. The 4-hour structure looks relatively strong, but the daily timeframe remains range-bound. Bollinger Bands: upper band resistance at 1926; lower band support at 1844. Liquidity: Spot Ethereum ETF flows continue with net inflows; on-chain data shows that Ethereum large-holder addresses’ holdings have risen to a historical high. The market is repeatedly tested in the 1900–1927 range. Holding 1909 and breaking above 1924 is the prerequisite for repair continuation; if it breaks below 1892, it will return to a defensive path. The daily chart is still in a consolidation box and has not yet escaped the range-bound structure. Support: 1890–1895, 1872, 1850–1860 Resistance: 1926, 1950, 1982

2026.8.7 #btc
Today is Friday. Watch whether volatility can increase. In recent days, the crypto market has been repeatedly oscillating within a range. When U.S. stocks see high volatility, crypto may occasionally follow, but it is still difficult to escape the range-bound structure. Each attempt to break upward has met with insufficient follow-through, with very limited funds stepping in.
Liquidity remains tight—too poor to support sustained upside. Although the pattern suggests a bullish bias, the momentum cannot meet the requirements for continuous rising. The only option is to pull back again, then accumulate strength for another push. Today, pay attention to the impact of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on the market.

Big Bitcoin (BTC): For now, expect range-bound movement. Whether NFP can help price find direction remains to be seen. We are in a typical “pullback under pressure at the highs, higher lows forming” accumulation phase. On the daily chart, RSI is neutral. MACD is negative but narrowing, not yet forming a golden cross. ADX is weak—direction is about to be chosen. 65,000 is the key line between bulls and bears: a breakout could trigger liquidation of shorts and potentially accelerate the upside; if it meets resistance, there is risk of a pullback toward 64,000 and even 63,200. Neither side has formed clear dominance yet.
On the 1-hour chart, MACD histogram bars are negative, but the decline is shrinking. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish MACD histogram bars are contracting, but no death cross has formed. On the daily chart, the MACD negative value is narrowing, but a golden cross has not yet formed. The 4-hour MACD has shown a divergence signal, suggesting a need for a pullback.
Order book depth: buy/sell ratio is 2.00, and the thickness of resting orders below is close to twice as much.

Support: 64,000; 63,200
Resistance: 65,048; 65,400; 66,200

Big Ethereum (ETH): Still expect range-bound movement, though technically the overall bias is strong. It is rebounding in sync with BTC and repairing, but this is still a linked market—there is no independent strong trend yet. The 4-hour structure looks relatively strong, but the daily timeframe remains range-bound.
Bollinger Bands: upper band resistance at 1926; lower band support at 1844.

Liquidity: Spot Ethereum ETF flows continue with net inflows; on-chain data shows that Ethereum large-holder addresses’ holdings have risen to a historical high.
The market is repeatedly tested in the 1900–1927 range. Holding 1909 and breaking above 1924 is the prerequisite for repair continuation; if it breaks below 1892, it will return to a defensive path. The daily chart is still in a consolidation box and has not yet escaped the range-bound structure.

Support: 1890–1895, 1872, 1850–1860
Resistance: 1926, 1950, 1982

2026.8.5 #btc Yesterday’s market saw differentiation. The rotation between the large-cap coin and the second large-cap coin (often referred to as “big pie” and “second pie”) showed staged strong upward momentum, but the momentum never truly picked up, while price highs kept printing new records. Even the strong U.S. stock market performance at night did not trigger a significant surge in crypto. In the end, it still comes down to insufficient liquidity—the “see-saw” effect where flows rotate rather than broaden. On a normal weekday, yesterday’s volatility was very small and directionless. Today, for now, we still expect range-bound consolidation. Geopolitical sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global risk assets. On-chain signals: The supply from long-term holders has begun to decline; old coins are circulating again. Whether demand can absorb this is the key. Currently, both BTC and ETH are in consolidation structures. The Bollinger Bands are steadily tightening, and the breakout/reversal window is approaching. In a choppy market, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling in heavy size. Big pie: Consolidate and wait for a breakout. The prior overall peak has been gradually moving lower, and the larger downward structure has not been broken yet. If it meets resistance and falls back around 64,300–64,500, the primary target is 62,500; if it breaks down, look at the 61,300–62,200 range. If the daily close holds above 64,300 and breaks out with volume, the first target is 65,000. After capital entered on Aug 3, big pie has been trending upward slowly. This morning it already tested the 64,500 resistance area and is currently adjusting downward. Support: 63,250, 62,500. Resistance: 64,300–64,500, 65,000–65,500 Second pie: Consolidate and wait for a directional breakout. Second pie is compressed into a narrow trading band and is oscillating while the broader trend is still neutral. In the short-term trend, bulls and bears are stuck in a stalemate. If ETH breaks below 1,787, the liquidation pressure from accumulated long positions on major CEX platforms totals about $778 million. Pay special attention to the situation where repeated failed breakouts are followed by bears suddenly gaining strength. In a range market, “sweeping stops back and forth” is the biggest risk. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, pressure levels fluctuate above and below. Cycles are not uniform, and the daily cycle is slightly biased toward the upside. Support: 1,863, 1,850, 1,800–1,820. Resistance: 1,882–1,900, 1,920–1,945

2026.8.5 #btc
Yesterday’s market saw differentiation. The rotation between the large-cap coin and the second large-cap coin (often referred to as “big pie” and “second pie”) showed staged strong upward momentum, but the momentum never truly picked up, while price highs kept printing new records. Even the strong U.S. stock market performance at night did not trigger a significant surge in crypto. In the end, it still comes down to insufficient liquidity—the “see-saw” effect where flows rotate rather than broaden. On a normal weekday, yesterday’s volatility was very small and directionless. Today, for now, we still expect range-bound consolidation. Geopolitical sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global risk assets.

On-chain signals: The supply from long-term holders has begun to decline; old coins are circulating again. Whether demand can absorb this is the key. Currently, both BTC and ETH are in consolidation structures. The Bollinger Bands are steadily tightening, and the breakout/reversal window is approaching. In a choppy market, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling in heavy size.

Big pie: Consolidate and wait for a breakout. The prior overall peak has been gradually moving lower, and the larger downward structure has not been broken yet. If it meets resistance and falls back around 64,300–64,500, the primary target is 62,500; if it breaks down, look at the 61,300–62,200 range. If the daily close holds above 64,300 and breaks out with volume, the first target is 65,000. After capital entered on Aug 3, big pie has been trending upward slowly. This morning it already tested the 64,500 resistance area and is currently adjusting downward.

Support: 63,250, 62,500. Resistance: 64,300–64,500, 65,000–65,500

Second pie: Consolidate and wait for a directional breakout. Second pie is compressed into a narrow trading band and is oscillating while the broader trend is still neutral. In the short-term trend, bulls and bears are stuck in a stalemate. If ETH breaks below 1,787, the liquidation pressure from accumulated long positions on major CEX platforms totals about $778 million. Pay special attention to the situation where repeated failed breakouts are followed by bears suddenly gaining strength. In a range market, “sweeping stops back and forth” is the biggest risk. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, pressure levels fluctuate above and below. Cycles are not uniform, and the daily cycle is slightly biased toward the upside.

Support: 1,863, 1,850, 1,800–1,820. Resistance: 1,882–1,900, 1,920–1,945

2026.8.4 #btc Yesterday, during the Asian-session A-share time, the market moved down in a one-way decline; during the US-session, it rose in a one-way move, and the price was swept back and forth. After BTC surged to a new high, it pulled back and closed as a bearish candle. ETH remained weak. The daily chart printed a large bearish candle; it failed to regain half of the prior advance. This was mainly due to the strong rally in US stocks overnight. This was not a market-driven behavior; without news catalysts, “market-driven” one-way declines/declines don’t happen that way. The negotiation signals released by Trump are also the main reason for the US stock rally. In reality, this isn’t a real positive development—he can’t make concessions, and Iran definitely can’t make concessions either. It’s all talk, creating conditions for US stock gains—fabricating momentum out of thin air. BTC: focus on trading in the upper range, with low-buy positions as a supplement. Yesterday’s daily candle formed a doji; it also had a long lower wick along with an upper-wick. Many factors influenced it. Still, it was a desperate counterattack. From the daily and 12-hour charts, there are signs of capital stepping in after a base formed. The market also rode the negotiation atmosphere to go long. Even so, the weekly and monthly cycles still provide conditions to go long. The real negative factor is liquidity tightening + a failed negotiation. Support: 63000-63000; Resistance: 64050, 64500, 65178 ETH: in the past few days it’s been relatively weaker, with trades mainly in the upper range, using low buys as a supplement. The rise and fall are determined by BTC; it doesn’t develop an independent trend. The larger timeframe downtrend structure hasn’t been broken yet. On the 4H chart, it tested 1,873 three consecutive times but failed to break through, and the volume has shrunk step by step. Watch whether BTC can break out; if it does, ETH is prone to see a sharp spike that forms a needle-like wick. After yesterday’s deep dip, the daily chart cycle has entered a bullish phase for the time being. The opportunity to truly catch lows won’t last too long. Support: 1840-1850, 1800-1820; Resistance: 1876, 1895, 1920

2026.8.4 #btc
Yesterday, during the Asian-session A-share time, the market moved down in a one-way decline; during the US-session, it rose in a one-way move, and the price was swept back and forth. After BTC surged to a new high, it pulled back and closed as a bearish candle. ETH remained weak. The daily chart printed a large bearish candle; it failed to regain half of the prior advance. This was mainly due to the strong rally in US stocks overnight. This was not a market-driven behavior; without news catalysts, “market-driven” one-way declines/declines don’t happen that way. The negotiation signals released by Trump are also the main reason for the US stock rally. In reality, this isn’t a real positive development—he can’t make concessions, and Iran definitely can’t make concessions either. It’s all talk, creating conditions for US stock gains—fabricating momentum out of thin air.
BTC: focus on trading in the upper range, with low-buy positions as a supplement. Yesterday’s daily candle formed a doji; it also had a long lower wick along with an upper-wick. Many factors influenced it. Still, it was a desperate counterattack. From the daily and 12-hour charts, there are signs of capital stepping in after a base formed. The market also rode the negotiation atmosphere to go long. Even so, the weekly and monthly cycles still provide conditions to go long. The real negative factor is liquidity tightening + a failed negotiation.
Support: 63000-63000; Resistance: 64050, 64500, 65178
ETH: in the past few days it’s been relatively weaker, with trades mainly in the upper range, using low buys as a supplement. The rise and fall are determined by BTC; it doesn’t develop an independent trend. The larger timeframe downtrend structure hasn’t been broken yet. On the 4H chart, it tested 1,873 three consecutive times but failed to break through, and the volume has shrunk step by step. Watch whether BTC can break out; if it does, ETH is prone to see a sharp spike that forms a needle-like wick. After yesterday’s deep dip, the daily chart cycle has entered a bullish phase for the time being. The opportunity to truly catch lows won’t last too long.
Support: 1840-1850, 1800-1820; Resistance: 1876, 1895, 1920

2026.8.3 #btc
Only today marks the official start of the week/month battle. In the first two days, the month line was touched, but the weekly line has not been set yet. Looking at the weekly K chart: last week saw a high that turned into a lower close (a bearish reversal). This week, watch for a pullback of the weekly and Sunday lines, which may then form a bullish resonance. Currently, the 8-hour and 12-hour charts are still in a bullish continuation. At present, it is still in the nature of an oversold rebound; the daily bearish trend has not changed. It is not recommended to chase long positions with heavy exposure. Counter-trend longs need quick entry and quick exit. However, the 1–2 hour timeframe needs a correction, and the 4-hour momentum is insufficient. On Monday, liquidity should recover: once the weekend ends, liquidity gradually improves, but during the Asian session you should still be alert to the risk of “needle” spikes (brief wicks).
For BTC: short at high levels, and use low-level longs as a secondary strategy. The daily timeframe is still within a bearish trend and is also an oversold rebound. The key resistance zone at 63,500–63,800 is the intraday line between bulls and bears—if price is rejected and pulls back, the bearish trend continues; if there is a volume-backed breakout and it holds above the level, then the short-term bearish force weakens. Below the 1-hour timeframe is in a bearish correction phase, but after a needle move, a rebound may begin.
Support: 62,800; 62,200; 61,500. Resistance: 63,500; 63,800; 64,200; 64,500–65,000

2026.8.2 #btc
Starting in August opposite to July: the first day kicks off a sell-off mode. BTC’s weekly chart drops by 2 weeks’ worth of the previous gains; ETH’s weekly chart also shows a bearish body with an engulfing reversal. Pay attention to pullbacks at the monthly level. The monthly chart is still in a bottoming rebound phase, but the weekly chart may move up or down in the middle due to insufficient momentum. On Sunday, market liquidity tightens further and the risk of stop-hunts increases. The probability of a September rate hike is over 60%. Geopolitics keeps recurring, and the macro environment continues to suppress risk assets. We are currently in an oversold rebound/repair phase. BTC may repair toward the 60-minute resistance area; ETH has not even touched the 30-minute resistance level.
BTC: From near 63,100 yesterday, it further probed lower. The daily level has already broken below the key 63,500 support, and the downtrend continues. On the 4-hour chart, after the MACD lines formed a bearish crossover, they have diverged downward. Price tracks along the lower Bollinger band, with bears in control. However, after today’s second sell-off, it’s possible to form a bullish resonance below the daily level. Watch for changes in momentum.
Support: 62,000–62,500; 61,000–61,500. Resistance: 63,300—63,500; 63,800–64,200

2026.8.1 #BTC The final day of July’s close is just too hard to hold on—on Sunday, the weekly line saw a spike and then fell back to close bearish. A contrarian move: while global financial markets are surging, the crypto market is showing its deepest adjustment instead. The “see-saw” effect of capital just means that yesterday the crypto market became the one being bled. Normally, although today is the start of the month, on Saturday none of the various “big shots” are likely to act today. Market volatility may decrease, but we still need to guard against a one-way bullish repair on Saturday. This kind of走势 has continued for 6 weeks. BTC (Big Pie): mainly short at high levels. Be prepared for a one-way minor correction, small rebounds, sideways consolidation, and then another small pull. The daily chart has broken below the key support at 63,500, so the bearish trend continues. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 62,900. After the MACD dual lines formed a dead cross, they are dispersing downward—rebound strength in the short term is limited. Timeframes below 8 hours are at the bottom and have rebound conditions; the 12-hour and daily charts have not finished their adjustment yet. Support: 62,200, 62,600, 62,800. Resistance: 63,300-63,500, 63,800, 64,300 ETH (Second Pie): mainly short at high levels. On Saturdays, it often shows independent strength—once a momentum-driven small trend forms, follow-through tends to be in the same direction. Yesterday’s low touched 1,847 and then it rebounded slightly. The daily chart has broken below the key support at 1,876, with bears taking the lead. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 1,864, and the MACD is arranged bearishly. The weekly chart has a bearish engulfing pattern (a yin enveloping a yang), and yesterday’s daily was a big bearish candle that wiped out the prior strength. Even if there’s a one-way repair today, the upside space likely won’t be very large. However, yesterday at 15:30 and 60-minute intervals saw volume spikes with wicks. As long as it doesn’t break the new low again, this is likely the bottom. The daily adjustment isn’t finished yet, but it could also end by going sideways instead of down—or even by completing the adjustment with a small rise. Support: 1,850-1,860, 1,830-1,840. Resistance: 1,876-1,886, 1,895, 1,920

2026.8.1 #BTC
The final day of July’s close is just too hard to hold on—on Sunday, the weekly line saw a spike and then fell back to close bearish. A contrarian move: while global financial markets are surging, the crypto market is showing its deepest adjustment instead. The “see-saw” effect of capital just means that yesterday the crypto market became the one being bled. Normally, although today is the start of the month, on Saturday none of the various “big shots” are likely to act today. Market volatility may decrease, but we still need to guard against a one-way bullish repair on Saturday. This kind of走势 has continued for 6 weeks.
BTC (Big Pie): mainly short at high levels. Be prepared for a one-way minor correction, small rebounds, sideways consolidation, and then another small pull.
The daily chart has broken below the key support at 63,500, so the bearish trend continues. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 62,900. After the MACD dual lines formed a dead cross, they are dispersing downward—rebound strength in the short term is limited.
Timeframes below 8 hours are at the bottom and have rebound conditions; the 12-hour and daily charts have not finished their adjustment yet.
Support: 62,200, 62,600, 62,800. Resistance: 63,300-63,500, 63,800, 64,300
ETH (Second Pie): mainly short at high levels. On Saturdays, it often shows independent strength—once a momentum-driven small trend forms, follow-through tends to be in the same direction. Yesterday’s low touched 1,847 and then it rebounded slightly.
The daily chart has broken below the key support at 1,876, with bears taking the lead. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 1,864, and the MACD is arranged bearishly. The weekly chart has a bearish engulfing pattern (a yin enveloping a yang), and yesterday’s daily was a big bearish candle that wiped out the prior strength. Even if there’s a one-way repair today, the upside space likely won’t be very large.
However, yesterday at 15:30 and 60-minute intervals saw volume spikes with wicks. As long as it doesn’t break the new low again, this is likely the bottom. The daily adjustment isn’t finished yet, but it could also end by going sideways instead of down—or even by completing the adjustment with a small rise.
Support: 1,850-1,860, 1,830-1,840. Resistance: 1,876-1,886, 1,895, 1,920

2026.7.31 #BTC
The last day of this month: the monthly line closes with a candle, and it is also Friday—one of the days this week when volatility is relatively high, with strong competition between bulls and bears. The likelihood of a major drop on the monthly timeframe is low. A monthly-level close near the bottom with a slightly bearish candle is essentially a foregone conclusion. On the weekly timeframe, the market is currently in a bottoming and rebound state—whether it can push higher today is the key variable for how the week’s candle will close.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, moving averages are sticking together, and a large-scale directional choice is imminent. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout afterward. Right now, it is in the late stage of a box-range consolidation, where false breakouts happen frequently. Set a strict stop-loss, control position sizing; you can observe from the middle zone and wait for clear signals at key levels before entering.
BTC: Consolidation while waiting for a breakout. On the daily timeframe, the moving-average system is leveling off, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, indicating that a major turning point window is approaching. Price is below the 50-day EMA and far below the 200-day moving average at 71,000. Direction is unclear; everyone is waiting for a clear signal. In the past two days, BTC’s movement has slightly strengthened. On intraday, the larger cycles of 8 and 12 hours are still in a bullish state with the time and space needed for an advance. Below 1 hour, the market is ranging and pulling back and forth.
Support: 64300-64500, 63500-63800, 62000-62500. Resistance: 65200, 65700, 67000-67500

2026.7.29 #btc
Before the interest-rate decision, market sentiment is largely cautious, with frequent pin-stick fluctuations. High-leverage contract risk is extremely high. Liquidity is relatively weak in the early-morning hours. Yesterday’s price action showed frequent upward and downward pin wicks on the daily chart, triggering both long and short liquidations.
Technical outlook: The three RSI lines are clustered around the 45 area at low values. RSI6 is below RSI12, forming a hidden bearish crossover, indicating weakening short-term momentum. For perpetual contracts, the funding rate is skewed negatively. Options skew is right-tilted, suggesting a surge in demand for downside hedging.
BTC (big pie): High sell-off then low buyback, with no clear direction and contracting volume. In cycle behavior 1 and 2 hours, expect pullbacks from the highs. From 4, 6, 8, and 12 hours, the base at the bottom provides conditions suitable for going long. Overall, expect a small pullback first, then watch for a bullish convergence pattern. However, this time—besides the impact of news—short-side momentum below the zero line on the daily chart has strengthened. In reality, the market is consolidating while waiting for the meeting decision to land; within the next 1–2 hours, volatility will increase noticeably. Pay attention to timing.
Support: 63500, 62400-62800, 61600; Resistance: 64400-64800, 65567, 65988

2026.7.28 #btc
These are turbulent times, marked by dramatic rises and falls. Yesterday’s market saw a roller-coaster move. The main reason is that after today’s sharp plunge in the Japan and Korea stock markets, the crypto market suddenly dropped in a straight line within one hour, breaking through multiple key support levels. After the crash, prices are already close to the breakout point. If the support holds here, the market is likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Fed interest rate decision will be announced. The market expects rates to remain unchanged (3.50%-3.75%), but the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 82%. With the FOMC meeting just around the corner, increased volatility is inevitable.
BTC: Weak. On rallies, shorting is the main strategy. The 1-hour and 2-hour pullbacks have already adjusted, but the 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour adjustments are not yet fully done. Moreover, the daily chart’s momentum is clearly strengthening toward the downside, and it’s not far from the previous low—so consolidation may choose a direction from here. The short-side forces have already unleashed a move; now price is close to the previous wave’s breakout level. Chasing shorts is about waiting for a break of support, while going long is about expecting support to hold—both sides have reasons. For a more prudent approach, wait until the cycle completes. There are 3 more days left this month. From the perspective of the monthly chart, the downside likely won’t be too deep.
Support: 62666, 62300, 61200-61700, Resistance: 64300-64600, 65200

2026.7.27 #btc
Weekend wrap-up: the weekly chart closes green, and the weekly chart achieves a 4-session winning streak. This month has been steadily climbing; July has become a textbook rebound month. Although the external environment is harsh, the bottom of the large-cycle timeframe has already been formed. There is still one week left this month. Most likely, rebounds remain the priority; the real pullback may occur in the few days around the month-end transition. Volatility before the FOMC on Wednesday may be amplified. From Sunday to Monday: choppy rebound. Wednesday’s FOMC is the biggest inflection point of the month. On Thursday: GDP + Core PCE data.
BTC (big coin): go long on dips at higher altitudes. The probability of maintaining a rebound on Monday remains high, but after last night’s surge, there is a need for a retest on sub-1–2 hour timeframes. At high levels, there will be a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. After today’s pullback has been sufficiently stabilized, it is still an opportunity to set up long positions. This week still has the desire to push higher and potentially additional catch-up upside. The rebound structure on the monthly timeframe still has room and time.
Support: 64500-64950, 643800; Resistance: 65600, 66200-6560

2026.7.23 #BTC
Yesterday, the big cake daily candle closed bearish; the second cake closed bullish, forming a cross pattern with choppy up-and-down movement. Liquidity sweep was relatively noticeable: there was a brief fake breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support, followed by a quick reversal. Today, the daily chart needs attention for a potential trend change. Today’s stock market is also a day that’s very prone to large volatility. The big swings in the Asia-session stock market will directly impact the crypto market. Early session saw a sharp rebound in the Japan and South Korea stock markets. But the oil price surge will bring negative effects to the economy. Today, both bulls and bears are intertwined: institutional funds keep flowing in to provide support, but macro headwinds limit the upside room. Across the whole network, the large-holder account ratio of bulls to bears is about 55%:45% (bulls slightly stronger).
Big cake: first choice is to go long from above (sell/short high), with low entries as secondary. Decide the direction based on the current range. The 4-hour to daily timeframe shows the short-side is pulling back, but the candlestick structure is still biased bullish. Yesterday’s big cake was weak and the daily candle closed bearish. It’s been ranging and tugging above and below 66,000. The 1-hour and 2-hour adjustment structures are relatively clear; the 4-hour has support. As long as the 12-hour support doesn’t break, it should still rebound overall. If it breaks down, it will trigger a daily chart adjustment.
Support: 65,000-65,500, 64,500. Resistance: 66,700

2026.7.21 #BTC
Yesterday the market had no clear direction. During the evening US session, after 0:00 it finally chose to move upward. The daily chart closed with a relatively strong candle (a medium-to-strong bullish body). While global capital markets keep falling without end, the crypto market is one of the few that is still rising. This is very likely because funds are rotating out of other markets and flowing back into crypto. When something is this abnormal, something unusual is usually behind it. Trying to break away from all other financial markets and rise independently looks more like a trap.
Although the weekly and monthly lines support a continued rebound, the overall market environment deteriorating makes the “pump-and-dump / pig-butchering” style of inducement even more suspicious.

BTC: Sell high and buy low. In the 4-hour timeframe, there have been five consecutive bullish K-lines, and it has been driven upward for forcibly about 20 hours. Momentum is insufficient, but price keeps grinding higher. Currently, the 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour indicators are all at elevated levels, and the daily chart is the same. Weekly and monthly lines are bullish, but pullbacks are still needed. Also pay attention to the risk that after a high-level push loses strength, it could resonate downward into a short (bearish) move. Wait for a wick/stab-in opportunity or for a clear 1-hour signal. Current volume is below the 30-day average; incremental capital is insufficient, so whether the uptrend can continue remains questionable. The Fear & Greed Index is only 29, in the fear zone. Bulls lack the willingness to chase higher prices.

Support: 63800-64200, 63200. Resistance: 65300-65800, 66200, 67000

2026.7.19 #BTC
Oil prices are a death knell. If oil prices don’t fall, there’s no chance for the midterm election. Trump’s erratic behavior has thrown the world into chaos—now it’s backfiring. And behind oil prices lies the Strait of Hormuz. That place sees constant cannon fire, but the crypto market is once again using a cyclical squeeze playbook, grinding steadily upward. On Saturday it even printed a one-way bullish candle. Although it looks hard work—using the night to ambush—it has already been carried out in the same way for 5 consecutive weeks on Saturdays. Today is Sunday: there are no unusual movements in the morning, and the daytime won’t have much fluctuation. The main thing to watch is whether there’s a move after 8:00 PM.
BTC (the “big pie”): Ranging—wait for a directional breakout. After this pullback reached 62,500, resistance has been relatively strong and funds have started to gradually push forward. Over the weekend, the correction repaired back to the vicinity of the prior high. Bulls are using time to create space, running upward for as long as 50 hours. Currently, the 1H, 2H, and 4H are all staying at elevated levels where pullbacks can happen at any time, while the 6H and 8H remain bullish cycles that can continue to repair. The 12H trend is neutral, and the daily chart correction is not yet finished. The MACD fast line is leveling off above the zero line; the KDJ has entered a dull, high-level zone; RSI (14) is at 76, indicating severe overbought.
Support: 64,200-64,200; 63,000-63,600. Resistance: 65,000-65,588; 66,000-66,888

2026.7.18 #btc
The encrypted market has pulled back for 2 days. Yesterday there was still a factor of a one-ball stock-market crash. Overall, the monthly trend remains bullish. On the weekly chart, we’re seeing a high-to-low pullback, but the two weekend days have not finished yet. Today is likely to be mainly low-frequency range-bound consolidation. There has been a one-directional bullish move on Saturday for 4 straight weeks. Today’s chart structure shows clear resistance overhead. However, this type of pattern has not appeared so far. Still, the motivation of large funds remains, because the probability that institutions would sell off on Saturday is too low.
Last week’s CPI positives for the 2nd and 3rd were already digested. The hawkish remarks from the Fed reignited expectations of further rate hikes, and the overall market weakened; ETH followed with a pullback.

BTC: range-bound consolidation. After two days of consecutive decline, last night saw a 1–2 hour level rebound/repair. That repair is already largely completed. The current 4-hour and 6-hour timeframe still has expectations of further repair, but the 1–2 hour timeframe is already in a high zone. On the daily chart, yesterday closed with a long lower shadow. The drop body has basically been fully recovered. A strong move to a bullish candle suggests strong support below. In this round of the market, BTC has performed relatively worse, and the pullback room is also comparatively smaller.
Support: 63500-63800, 62500. Resistance: 64350, 64700, 65000