2026.8.11 #BTC
On Monday, efforts to push higher failed to yield results. Momentum continued to weaken; it tried the same point six times—proof that there’s confidence without strength. Ultimately, during yesterday’s U.S. stock market session, it chose to move downward. This has kicked off a daily-chart-level correction. The timeframes below 4 hours are already in place, but the pullbacks on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not ended yet. If today can continue the adjustment for one more day, we can wait for a bullish-side resonance.
CPI data risk: This Wednesday’s CPI is the key variable. If it comes in below expectations, rate-cut expectations will heat up, benefiting risk assets. If it comes in above expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will rise back above 50%. Before the data release, volatility has already fallen to a year-to-date low—this is “calm before the storm.” After a breakdown, volatility may expand sharply.
BTC: A trend setup of “sell the rebound, and chase short on a breakdown.” In choppy action, it’s easy to get whipsawed and stopped out, so keep exposure light and use strict stop-losses. In the early phase, price stayed in a tight range of 64,600–65,400 for a long time. After bullish momentum was continuously overdrawn, it broke through all short-term supports with a long bearish real body. Current price is hugging the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the order book, the主动主动 sell order ratio is as high as 83.69%, indicating extremely weak buy/sustainment strength. The short-term bearish trend has been formally established. The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover has widened; bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. RSI on the 1-hour chart is 33.84—still not in the oversold zone, so there’s room further down. Rebound strength is limited.
Support: 63,300–63,500; 62,200–62,600. Resistance: 64,300; 64,800–65,200.
ETH ("second coin"): Focus on shorting from high levels. In recent days, ETH’s price action has been consistently weaker than BTC. The daily candlestick chart is in a repair phase; the EMA30 and EMA60 are both pressing in the 1,870–1,905 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have been steadily tightening, and the EMA series are intertwined—bulls and bears are becoming more balanced. This is a classic sideways “grinding” pattern, waiting for a directional breakout.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to face downward pressure and tends to have greater volatility. After BTC breaks down, ETH’s drop is often more severe. If there is a volume-backed selloff and a bottom stabilizes, there may also be opportunities for low-long entries today. Current market liquidity is insufficient, but after a sharp drop, there will inevitably be a rebound/repair.
Support: 1,860–1,870; 1,847–1,855. Resistance: 1,890–1,900; 1,910–1,933
On Monday, efforts to push higher failed to yield results. Momentum continued to weaken; it tried the same point six times—proof that there’s confidence without strength. Ultimately, during yesterday’s U.S. stock market session, it chose to move downward. This has kicked off a daily-chart-level correction. The timeframes below 4 hours are already in place, but the pullbacks on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not ended yet. If today can continue the adjustment for one more day, we can wait for a bullish-side resonance.
CPI data risk: This Wednesday’s CPI is the key variable. If it comes in below expectations, rate-cut expectations will heat up, benefiting risk assets. If it comes in above expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will rise back above 50%. Before the data release, volatility has already fallen to a year-to-date low—this is “calm before the storm.” After a breakdown, volatility may expand sharply.
BTC: A trend setup of “sell the rebound, and chase short on a breakdown.” In choppy action, it’s easy to get whipsawed and stopped out, so keep exposure light and use strict stop-losses. In the early phase, price stayed in a tight range of 64,600–65,400 for a long time. After bullish momentum was continuously overdrawn, it broke through all short-term supports with a long bearish real body. Current price is hugging the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the order book, the主动主动 sell order ratio is as high as 83.69%, indicating extremely weak buy/sustainment strength. The short-term bearish trend has been formally established. The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover has widened; bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. RSI on the 1-hour chart is 33.84—still not in the oversold zone, so there’s room further down. Rebound strength is limited.
Support: 63,300–63,500; 62,200–62,600. Resistance: 64,300; 64,800–65,200.
ETH ("second coin"): Focus on shorting from high levels. In recent days, ETH’s price action has been consistently weaker than BTC. The daily candlestick chart is in a repair phase; the EMA30 and EMA60 are both pressing in the 1,870–1,905 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have been steadily tightening, and the EMA series are intertwined—bulls and bears are becoming more balanced. This is a classic sideways “grinding” pattern, waiting for a directional breakout.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to face downward pressure and tends to have greater volatility. After BTC breaks down, ETH’s drop is often more severe. If there is a volume-backed selloff and a bottom stabilizes, there may also be opportunities for low-long entries today. Current market liquidity is insufficient, but after a sharp drop, there will inevitably be a rebound/repair.
Support: 1,860–1,870; 1,847–1,855. Resistance: 1,890–1,900; 1,910–1,933