Two weeks ago I called the STH-Realized Price the “fault line” to watch. It’s still doing its job—here’s what the tape now says.
I. The metric refresher
STH Realized Price (STH-RP) = break-even for coins < 155 days old—where short-term conviction flips to fear.
II. Why this slow grind higher matters
Psychology upgrade: STH-RP is inching toward six figures. Each uptick hardens $100 k as the “fair value” floor in the collective psyche.
Where the line sits now?
- Spot: ≈ $106.4 k
- Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP): $98 k
- Premium (Spot ÷ STH-RP − 1): +7.2 %.
- Long-Term Holder Realized Price (LTH-RP): $32.0 k (unchanged trend).
III. Why this creeping blue curve keeps mattering
• Price Memory – Every ~$500 uptick in STH-RP resets the “new buyers’ comfort floor.” It’s now flirting with six-figure territory; the crowd’s mental stop-loss rises with it.
• Dynamic Support – Look at the chart: two tags of the blue line in the last 10 days, two sharp bounces. That’s classic bull-phase structure; sellers dry up the moment we kiss cost-basis.
• Risk Compression – Shrinking premium = less overheated froth. In prior cycles, a <10 % gap has preceded the next leg up once open-interest rebuilds.
• Veteran Supply Lock-Up – LTH-RP is still 3× lower than spot; coins in cold storage remain “strong hands” (no incentive to dump). Supply overhang simply isn’t there.
TL;DR
The blue line is climbing relentlessly; as long as BTC lives above it, the prevailing tide is still higher-lows, higher-highs. Lose it on a daily close, and we get our first real gut-check since April—otherwise the bull engine is merely cooling its cylinders.
Written by onchained
