In the current context of low volatility and uncertain macro conditions, analyzing BTC inflows, rather than outflows, can often provide a more accurate picture of market sentiment, particularly on Binance, which continues to dominate trading volumes among major exchanges.
To reduce noise from such events like the recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, a smoothed approach is essential.
Looking at the data from 2020 onward, the monthly average of BTC inflows to Binance stands around 12 000 BTC.
But today, even as Bitcoin trades above $105,000, monthly inflows have dropped to just 5 700 BTC, a historically low level, even lower than those recorded during the last bear market. It is almost three time lower than the first time BTC hit the $100 000 milestone.
By contrast, during the FTX collapse in late 2022, monthly inflows on Binance surged to around 24 000 BTC, reflecting panic and large-scale selling.
In fact, each significant inflow spike observed during this current cycle has closely aligned with local market tops, followed by short- to mid-term corrections.
This recurring pattern shows that Binance is a key platform where investors actively transact, and it reinforces the idea that inflow spikes are typically linked to selling pressure or fear-driven behavior.
In the current environment, the sharp drop in inflows strongly suggests that the market has shifted into a holding phase. Selling pressure is clearly subdued, and the data points to a growing appetite for long-term holding, which could lay the foundation for a short-term upward move.
Still, caution is warranted, the market remains fragile, and uncertainty continues to linger.
Written by Darkfost
