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$ARB (1D) Update:

Despite the fact that we successfully caught the rally from $0.07 to $0.23, the broader NeoWave structure — a Triple Combination — indicated that a relief rally was likely to occur before the final cycle bottom.

Now, we also have a compelling structural comparison with the 2023–2024 price action. Step by step, the current structure continues to mirror the previous one, which points toward further downside.

I believe there is a high probability that the upcoming correction will erase the entire rally and eventually lead to a true cycle bottom, potentially around $0.05.

From current levels, we could still see some volatility, with price fluctuating by approximately ±10%, similar to what we observed during the 2023–2024 structure. Back then, the relief rally ultimately failed before the downtrend continued.

I expect a similar scenario to unfold here. So far, price has followed the previous structure remarkably closely, repeating almost every step along the way.

$APR Buy setup: (SPOT)

APR appears to be developing a complex corrective structure that closely resembles the patterns described in NeoWave methodology.

Based on this structural comparison, I expect the current decline to continue, potentially leading to a final cycle bottom within the $0.0175–$0.0217 spot accumulation zone.

Current structural progress:

The structure has developed approximately 50% so far. Using the NeoWave methodology, we have identified the following waves:

:F3 → :C3 → :S5 → :X:C3 → :F3

From this point, we’ll continue monitoring price action to identify the next waves as the structure develops. Once the remaining waves unfold and all the required structural labels are confirmed, we’ll have 100% confirmation of this structure according to the NeoWave rules.

Spot entry strategy:

We plan to execute our spot buy once the price reaches the previously mentioned accumulation zone of $0.0175–$0.0217. From there, we’ll closely monitor the development of the structure to track its progression and identify the next potential moves.

The projected path suggests a prolonged recovery phase, with multiple corrective swings before APR potentially begins a much larger bullish expansion.

$LTC More Detailed Update:

LTC appears to be developing a Triple Combination within the NeoWave framework.

The overall structure is approximately 50% complete so far.

Phase 1: We have identified the initial decline, followed by a Zigzag structure, which appears to complete the first phase of the combination.

Phase 2: This phase now appears to be underway. The current price action closely resembles a Common Flat, characterized by a sharp decline from the local highs. This behavior is consistent with the expected development of a Triple Combination, in which each corrective phase takes a different structural form.

What comes next?

Based on the current structural development, I expect LTC to continue forming its cycle bottom over the coming months. The structure could eventually conclude with a contracting, non-limiting ABCDE triangle, with the final bottom potentially forming within the $20–$24 range.

In the quoted post, you can also see a structural comparison with the 2022 cycle, with the price action aligning step by step. This adds another layer of confluence to the current analysis.

$NEAR LTF 4H Update:

Under the NeoWave framework, the current price structure appears to be developing as a double zigzag combination. Each phase follows a similar pattern, with these phases potentially combining into a larger double zigzag structure on higher timeframes.

Here’s what we have so far:

Structure 1: A double zigzag that lasted 62 days and 4 hours, followed by a corrective phase that lasted 69 days and 4 hours, during which price eventually declined by approximately 50%.

Structure 2: After that corrective phase ended, price began developing another double zigzag combination. This structure has now lasted 61 days and 16 hours, and we are already seeing signs of weakness in price action.

As the current structure approaches the 62–63-day timeframe, another major decline could begin within the next day.

Of course, timing is never perfect. However, the structural similarities and timing alignment are becoming increasingly clear, and this is the scenario I believe we should continue to monitor.

If the pattern continues to unfold as expected, the current structure could be followed by another corrective phase lasting approximately another 69 days, similar to the previous one. From current levels, we could then see another 50–60% decline, potentially pushing $NEAR toward $3 or even lower.

$INJ : More detailed update: additional to quoted post:

One more downside impulse, wave (C), may still be ahead, potentially driving INJ back toward its previous bottom zone or slightly above it. 2.7-3$

We saw a similar development in 2022, when wave (C) brought price back toward the previous lows before the larger corrective structure continued to develop.

The current structure appears to be rhyming with that historical pattern, making this final downside move an important scenario to watch before the next major bullish cycle begins.

$INJ HTF Update: Revised Bottom Target + opening Swing Short :

If you remember, my previous bottom target for INJ was around $1.20. However, after analysing the latest price movements and reassessing the current structure, I’ve revised my projection.

My updated bottom target is now in the $2.70–$3.00 range, representing a potential downside of approximately 70–72% from current levels.

Here’s the reasoning behind this revision:

Within the NEoWave framework, the current structure appears to be developing as a Double Combination. Comparing it with the 2022 structure helps us better understand INJ’s position within the larger corrective formation.

What’s particularly interesting is how the current structure continues to rhyme with the 2022 formation, with each stage developing in a similar sequence.

The current Double Combination appears to be approaching completion. However, before INJ can begin its next major bull cycle, I’m watching for one final downside impulse toward the previous bottom zone, potentially reaching the $2.70–$3.00 range.

Looking back at the 2022 structure, we can observe a similar sequence: following wave B, price declined into wave C, returning to the previous bottom zone and reaching slightly above it. Price subsequently developed waves D and E before transitioning into a new bullish cycle.

My expectation is that INJ could follow a similar path. One final corrective decline may still be ahead before the larger structure completes.

My Trading Plan:

Based on this framework and my confidence in the projected structure, I’ve decided to open a swing short on $INJ .

First entry: Around $8.060
Potential DCA: Around $9.00, if the market provides the opportunity
Target zone: $2.70–$3.00

Once INJ reaches this area, I’ll be watching closely for signs that the larger corrective structure has completed and a new bullish phase is beginning.

$SOL : LTF 4H

The current SOL structure appears to be developing as a double zigzag under the NEoWave framework.

One of the key features supporting this interpretation is the non-limiting triangle in the X-wave position, developing in the middle of the structure. According to the NEoWave framework, this type of triangle can occur within a double zigzag without terminating the larger corrective pattern.

With both zigzags now appearing complete, SOL could be approaching the end of the current structure, potentially followed by the start of the next corrective phase.

$BNB LTF update:

The current BNB structure appears to be developing as a triple combination under the NEoWave framework.

Since the local lows, we can identify two zigzags, with each corrective phase separated by an X-wave, suggesting that the correction may be evolving into a more complex structure.

What makes the current setup particularly interesting is the potential breakout structure developing near the highs. This could be an early warning of a triangle formation, which may serve as the final component of the triple combination.

If this interpretation is correct, the completion of the triangle could mark the end of the entire triple combination and the transition into the next corrective phase, potentially opening the door to a larger downside move.

$BTC : This is how Bitcoin’s structure could develop all the way into 2033 on a linear (non-logarithmic) scale.
The 4-year cycle is still very much alive.

Orange dots: Major cycle peaks.

Red dots: Where people start screaming, “THE BOTTOM IS IN” and “THE BULL RUN HAS STARTED.”
I marked the same red-dot structure around $48K in 2022, again around $87K in the current cycle, and even mapped out the next potential area where the pattern could repeat.

Blue dots: True cycle bottoms.

$BTC : This also helps explain why the current structure appears larger than the 2022 structure — not only in timing, but in size as well. ( See quoted post )

Let’s compare the rallies first:

2022: Bitcoin rallied from $34K to $48K, a gain of approximately 41.18%.
2026: Bitcoin rallied from $58K to $87K, a gain of approximately 50%.

The 2026 rally is approximately 21.42% larger in relative terms than the comparable 2022 rally.

As I’ve explained before, the current structure appears to be developing on a larger scale, with both upward and downward impulses proportionally larger than their counterparts in 2022.

Now, let’s compare the declines from the same structural point marked by the black boxes:

2022: $48K → $37K = −22.92%
2026: $87K → $63.4K = −27.13%

The projected 2026 decline is approximately 18.37% larger in relative terms than the comparable 2022 decline.

Notice the consistency: both the upward rally and the projected downward move are larger in percentage terms in the current structure.

This is also why a move from the same structural point can differ not only in duration but also in magnitude.

The current structure appears to be repeating a similar pattern to 2022, but each step is taking proportionally longer to develop.
Because we’re potentially on a prolonged bearish cycle which is can last well over one year.

$BTC : The same principle applies to Bitcoin.

We must analyse Bitcoin’s entire price history to understand which previous cycle the current market is most likely to rhyme with — and, more importantly, why.

Instead of automatically assuming that Bitcoin must follow the 2018–2022 cycle, we need to examine the bigger picture and identify which historical structure best aligns with the current one.

That’s why assuming this bear market should last approximately one year simply because previous cycles did is, in my view, an arbitrary assumption without a complete structural analysis to support it.

This is exactly what I did a long time ago.

I analysed Bitcoin’s entire price history, comparing its larger structures, correction phases, and cycle durations rather than focusing on just one previous cycle.

My analysis points towards the current market rhyming with the prolonged 2013–2015 bear market, suggesting that this cycle could last well over a year.

The objective isn’t to force Bitcoin to repeat the most recent cycle. It’s to understand which historical pattern the current market structure most closely resembles.

History rhymes, but identifying the right rhyme requires analysing the entire history — not cherry-picking the cycle that fits your expectations.

$BTC $ETH : And this is how the entire market can develop its major structures simultaneously.

Bitcoin enters a prolonged bearish cycle, potentially rhyming with the extended 2013–2015 bear market.

At the same time, Ethereum gets the time needed to rhyme with its 2018–2019 cycle, when it experienced its first major structural reset — a decline of approximately 94% from its peak.

This time, my analysis points towards a potential second major structural reset, with ETH declining approximately 89% from its cycle peak.

These aren’t necessarily separate scenarios. They can be interconnected parts of a much larger market structure developing across multiple assets and timeframes.

Bitcoin’s cycle, Ethereum’s structural reset, and the broader altcoin bear market can all unfold simultaneously.

This is how the market builds its structures — not in isolation, but through multiple cycles developing together, each with its own timing and magnitude, while remaining part of the bigger picture.

One market. Multiple assets. Different cycle structures. One interconnected process.

$BTC : Back to my LTF 30M analysis:

The expected recovery toward $82,727 played out as anticipated, with BTC pushing as high as $82,900.

Price then reacted immediately, dropping approximately 1.5% from the mentioned target zone.

$BTC & #SP500

Additional context to my quoted post:

I’ve now added the Bitcoin chart to provide a broader perspective on the current market cycle and highlight the striking similarities with the prolonged 2013–2015 bear cycle.

One of the most important similarities is the growing divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

During the 2013–2015 bear market, Bitcoin became increasingly disconnected from the S&P 500’s trajectory. While stocks continued trending higher, Bitcoin entered a prolonged structural decline and followed its own bearish cycle.

Interestingly, this type of divergence was less pronounced during other major Bitcoin cycles, when BTC and the S&P 500 generally followed more closely aligned market rhythms, with major corrections occurring around similar periods.

But this time, we appear to be seeing a pattern much closer to 2013–2015.

Once again, the S&P 500 continues pushing higher while Bitcoin appears to be moving through a prolonged bearish phase, increasingly diverging from the stock market’s bullish trajectory.

This is one of the reasons I believe the current cycle is following the 2013–2015 cycle in terms of timing and duration, rather than the shorter 2022 cycle.

Back then, the S&P 500 continued rising throughout much of Bitcoin’s bear market before eventually entering its own bearish phase. Ultimately, both markets experienced a major correction.

Could we be approaching a similar turning point in 2025–2027?

If this historical pattern plays out again, the S&P 500 could enter its own bearish phase just as Bitcoin moves into the next stage of its broader correction.

This is precisely the scenario I’ve been discussing for the past 3–4 months. With both charts now side by side, the historical similarities become even more compelling.

$ETH :The Layers of Cycles

History rhymes — but there’s one crucial detail we must pay attention to.

We all know the saying: history rhymes. But before assuming Ethereum will repeat a specific part of a previous cycle, we must first understand how its entire market structure works.

Markets don’t consist of a single cycle. They contain multiple layers of cycles within cycles: micro-cycles within sub-cycles, sub-cycles within larger cycles, and larger structures unfolding across higher timeframes.

We cannot simply select a random correction from the past and assume that once the same percentage decline occurs, the correction must be over.

For example, if ETH experienced a 70% correction in a previous cycle, that doesn’t mean a 70% decline in the current cycle automatically signals the bottom.

That’s not how I approach market analysis. We must analyse the entire structure before drawing conclusions.

I’ve divided Ethereum’s historical price action into distinct structural phases, marking the corrections with black boxes on the chart
The first major structural reset occurred during 2018–2019, when ETH declined approximately 94% from its peak.

This is where the hierarchy of cycles becomes crucial.

The market develops through smaller cycles nested within larger ones. These smaller movements contribute to the development of a larger structure, which eventually reaches a major correction phase. Following that reset, a new phase develops, and the process continues.

Based on my analysis of Ethereum’s entire price history, I believe the current market is more likely to follow a pattern resembling the 2018–2019 bear market rather than the 2022 correction.

ETH could experience its second major structural reset, with a projected decline of approximately 89% from its cycle peak.

This would place Ethereum in my projected $528–$600 accumulation zone during the current bear market.

The key isn’t simply knowing that history rhymes. It’s understanding which historical structure the current market is actually rhyming with.

$BTC & #SP500

My Different analytical approaches are pointing toward the same possibility: the S&P 500 have already topped.

I was looking at the S&P 500 chart and noticed something interesting. Its current price action is beginning to resemble the structure Bitcoin formed around its $126K peak — both before and after the top.

Look at the similarities in price behavior and market structure across both charts.

Could we be watching the same pattern unfold again, this time in the stock market

About $ADA :

ADA is also following the structural patterns developing across other large-cap coins, as discussed in my quoted post. Its current price action closely resembles a Triple Combination within the NeoWave framework.

As explained in my previous posts, the current rally could mark the completion of Phase 1 of the correction, with Phase 2 now beginning to unfold.

The Phase 2 could drive ADA toward its projected true cycle-bottom zone of $0.047–$0.07, potentially by Q1 2027.

$SOL and $BNB are following similar structures as well.

Just like BTC and other large caps, both appear to be developing structures similar to 2022 — but on a much larger scale due to the prolonged bearish cycle.

I’ve shared my analysis of SOL and BNB many times, but let’s revisit my bottom targets:

$BNB : $280–$320
$SOL : $20–$25

The structures remain similar. The difference is the time required to complete them.

$LTC 1W :

If you remember, I’ve mentioned that large-cap altcoins that typically follow BTC are developing similar market structures — but on a much larger timescale.

The reason? We’re dealing with a prolonged bearish cycle. Even when price follows a structure similar to 2022, each phase takes longer to develop. BTC itself is following the 2022 structure step by step, but with significantly more time required for each stage to unfold.

Here’s another large-cap coin analysis: $LTC

So far, LTC appears to have completed Phase 1 of its correction. However, Phase 2 is still ahead and could continue developing into Q1 2027, potentially leading to the true cycle bottom.

My main accumulation zone is $20–$24. This is where I’ll be looking to start building a position as the market approaches the final bottoming phase.

The structure is familiar. The timing is different.

$BNB : same structure.

Large-cap assets that tend to move with BTC often form very similar structures.

Price is following the 2022 structure step by step, but this time it’s developing on a larger scale. That also means it takes longer to fully develop than the 2022 structure.

This explains why one year of the bear market has already passed, yet price is still only around the middle of the overall structure.

Phase 2 of the correction will develop over the coming months, eventually leading to the true cycle bottom.

We can see the same three touches at the top, marked with the blue dots. This strongly suggests that the top is most likely already in.

My target remains $280–320 for BNB this cycle.