999999

Recently, I couldn't stand the contract market anymore. I played with events for a whole day today, and there are 2 hours left before the business adjustment. I quickly opened 2 orders.

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When the environment is poor and the direction is unclear, sometimes choosing to lie flat is not a wrong choice

Recently, the market has experienced a mini storm. Gold and silver saw a flash crash yesterday, mainly due to the CME raising margin requirements and year-end profit-taking. Meanwhile, although the cryptocurrency ETF showed a net outflow, the price performance of BTC and ETH remained surprisingly strong. BTC held steady at 87k, and ETH held firm at 2900. This 'not falling' performance indicates that the internal supporting force of the market is stronger than expected, with chips transferring from those who are wavering to long-term holders.
Stage assessment: Horizontal consolidation and games during the vacuum period
We are currently at the end of the year, with the Hong Kong stock market closed, and the market has entered a vacuum period in terms of news. Apart from tomorrow's unemployment claims data, there is a lack of strong external catalysts in the short term. In a low liquidity environment, small fluctuations in the U.S. stock and futures markets will be amplified. It is expected that by next week, ETH will likely remain in the range of 2900 to 3100, oscillating and building momentum.
Key points: Maintain 2900, aim for 3500
From the current market logic, 2900 is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it effectively breaks below 2900, market confidence may collapse, and we may need to look back at the deep squat support around 2500, which usually accompanies a thorough deleveraging. If it can break through the pressure zone of 3150 to 3200 with volume, the upper space will open directly.
Target range of 3500 to 3700 is not only a previously dense trading area but also a psychological level with the most trapped positions. Once this area is reached, it is likely to trigger profit-taking, leading to a wave of correction. The ideal trend is to maintain oscillation around 3100, and if a 'deep V' action occurs at 2500, it would actually clear obstacles for a more robust upward trend in the future.
Summary and recommendations
Currently, it is a silent period before the policy is implemented. On-chain data shows that the holding cost line for large holders is between 2800 and 2900, which provides solid support for the current price. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the strength of the breakthrough at 3200 and the defense strength at 2900. Before a clear directional breakthrough occurs, maintain a range mindset and be wary of the instantaneous fluctuations brought about by year-end liquidity exhaustion.

Recently, the market has been continuously impacted by multiple macroeconomic factors:
• The U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are stronger than expected, reinforcing expectations for high interest rates to be maintained for longer
• Federal Reserve officials continue to release hawkish signals
• Japan's unexpected interest rate hike/policy shift has triggered a repricing of global liquidity

According to traditional logic, this type of macro environment should be favorable for the safe-haven and hedging properties of gold and crypto assets.
However, actual market feedback shows a clear divergence:
• Gold has risen strongly, once approaching 4400 USD/ounce, with its safe-haven attributes fully priced in
• U.S. stocks and the crypto market are exhibiting high volatility, with intense long-short battles and unclear direction

This indicates that current funds are neither fully "risk-on" nor "risk-off," but are more inclined towards short-cycle speculation.

Short-term bearish phase support factors

Although from a macro and mid-term perspective, the overall environment is not friendly to risk assets, there are still some structural positives in the short term:
1. Time node factors
• Christmas and New Year's Day are approaching, leading to a temporary warming of liquidity
• Before year-end settlements, institutions tend to stabilize net worth rather than actively sell off
2. Crypto market own factors
• ETF-related funds still have temporary inflows, providing bottom support for prices
• Leverage has been cleared multiple times in the past, limiting space for further sharp declines in the short term

Therefore, from a technical and rhythmic perspective —
This week (the last trading week of the year), even if no significant rise occurs, it will be difficult to experience a one-sided large drop.

Technical and rhythmic judgment (key points)
• Currently, the higher probability is:
Volume expansion oscillation + Range tug-of-war
• Time structure:
• This week (Monday to Friday): Continuation of oscillation
• After December 29–30:
• Holiday liquidity decline
• New Year expectations repricing
• Direction selection is more likely, leaning towards downward

ETH key range and trend expectations
• Core oscillation range:
3200 / 3300 —— 2800 / 2500
• Key support below:
• Around 2500 is a strong support zone
• If it first retraces to this area and holds
It is highly probable that a technical rebound will occur
• Target judgment:
• If it breaks below 2800 → Look to 2500
• If 2500 is lost → Mid-term bearish trend confirmed
• If it stabilizes in the 2500–2600 range → Rebound height is limited, more of a repair market

Can it reach 3000+ or is it 2500?

Recently, under the influence of multiple factors, both ETH and BTC have shown a relatively obvious pullback trend, and both have run to the vicinity of key support and rebound zones:
BTC has fallen to about 86000, while ETH has found support around the 2800 level.

From a macro perspective, tonight will see several important events, including the release of the US CPI data, Trump's speech, and the consumer confidence index; tomorrow will be the Japanese interest rate decision meeting. Among them, the expectation of a Japanese interest rate hike has basically been fully digested by the market, and the real impact on the market will still depend on the performance of the US data tonight.

From a technical perspective, there are already signs of a phase bottom in the larger trend, and the bottom structure is gradually becoming clearer. If the CPI data released at 21:30 is favorable, it is possible that ETH could directly attack 3100 tonight and further test the 3300 level tomorrow.

Although some individuals in the US have recently released hawkish remarks, it ultimately still needs to be referenced against actual economic data. Before the data shows a significant weakness, the marginal impact of such remarks is relatively limited.

It is important to note that even if a rebound occurs in the short term, it cannot be ruled out that it is a false rally. From a broader economic environment perspective, the fundamentals remain relatively weak, and after the market's emotional repair, caution should still be exercised regarding repeated fluctuations and risks.

Overall thinking:
In the short term, data-driven rebounds are expected, while in the medium term, attention should still be paid to pullbacks and false breakouts.

Recently, the core variables affecting the global market mainly come from the comprehensive change in the Federal Reserve's policy direction: the implementation of interest rate cuts, the official end of balance sheet reduction, and the initiation of RMP to supplement reserves and stabilize short-term liquidity. Although RMP is emphasized by officials as a technical operation and not traditional QE, its result is still to replenish liquidity in the banking system while keeping short-term interest rates in a moderate range. Overall, the policy mix has shifted from 'tight balance' to 'moderate easing', with funding costs decreasing and market risk appetite marginally recovering.

In such an environment, gold and the crypto market have become the most direct beneficiaries, but their paths of policy transmission differ. The core driver for gold comes from real interest rates and the direction of the US dollar. Interest rate cuts lead to a decline in nominal interest rates, while inflation expectations have not fully receded, combined with the market betting on potential further rate cuts, resulting in a continuous downward trend in real interest rates. The decline in real interest rates is the fundamental reason for gold prices reaching new highs, with current gold prices stabilizing at $4,200. The short-term support area is roughly between $4,100–$4,150, with the main trend support level around $4,000; resistance is concentrated in the $4,350–$4,450 range. The overall structure remains bullish, as long as US real interest rates do not rise again, gold still has conditions for further highs.

Cryptocurrency assets (especially BTC and ETH) are more sensitive to liquidity; therefore, the simultaneous occurrence of interest rate cuts, halting balance sheet reduction, and RMP constitutes a more direct impetus for crypto. BTC is currently in a healthy high-level oscillation structure, with major support concentrated in the $86,000–$90,000 range; as long as this level is maintained, the mid-term bullish trend remains unchanged; attention is on the trend breakthroughs at $100,000 and $102,000. ETH has a catch-up attribute, with core support at $2,700–$2,800; if it can stabilize and break through the $3,200–$3,500 range, it will return to the trend channel. Overall, the elasticity of the crypto market is clearly greater than that of gold, and its rise and fall rhythm relies more on changes in liquidity expectations and short-term risk aversion sentiment.

In summary, the current policy environment provides common support for gold and crypto: gold benefits from declining real interest rates, while crypto benefits from warming liquidity and decreasing funding costs. The short-term market remains strong, but the core risks to be aware of are recurring inflation, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding policy pace, and the potential volatility brought about by the RMP's strength not meeting expectations.

December Environmental Overview

The core variables of the current market stem from a comprehensive shift in the Federal Reserve's policy path: interest rate cuts, halting balance sheet reduction, and the initiation of RMP (Reserve Management Purchases). The interest rate has been lowered to 3.50–3.75%, reducing financing costs and providing valuation support for risk assets; the official end of balance sheet reduction signifies a pause in the continuous drainage over the past three years, alleviating system liquidity pressure; while the RMP's monthly purchase of approximately $40 billion in short-term government bonds, although positioned as a technical operation of 'supplementing reserves,' nonetheless results in the central bank's balance sheet expanding again, constituting a substantial 'mini-expansion.' Overall, the funding environment has shifted from a tight balance to a moderately accommodative stance.

Under this set of policy combinations, the market direction is gradually becoming clearer. The stock market is biased towards strength in the short term, supported by declining interest rates and stabilizing liquidity that bolster risk appetite, but medium-term observations are still needed to see if inflation rises again. The bond market shows a rapid decline in short-term rates while long-term rates remain sticky, resulting in a steeper yield curve. The dollar has marginally weakened under the pressures of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, but the trend is still influenced by the policies of other economies.

The impact on gold and cryptocurrency warrants special emphasis. Gold benefits from the decline in real interest rates and the weakening of the dollar, maintaining a neutral to bullish pattern, but due to the limited expansion of RMP, current liquidity is insufficient to drive gold into a comprehensive trend-driven bull market; its movement depends more on the balance between real interest rates and inflation expectations. Cryptocurrencies are most sensitive to liquidity; the combined effect of interest rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion improves the funding environment, allowing Bitcoin and mainstream assets to remain relatively strong in the short term. The marginal improvement in funding conditions helps support prices, but medium-term trends still need to pay attention to inflation and policy consistency; if inflation rises or the Fed shifts to a hawkish stance again, volatility in cryptocurrencies may increase first.

Overall, the current policy direction presents short-term benefits for the market, but the medium-term risks lie in recurring inflation, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, and the limited effect of RMP. In trading, one should seize the opportunities brought by liquidity improvements while remaining vigilant for a potential policy shift.

Is 2600 the bottom? No, it's not.

ETH today's lowest point touched 2870 before a significant rebound.
The Federal Reserve's minutes were overall hawkish, and the expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, but the impact is limited; what really drove the sentiment was Nvidia's earnings report significantly exceeding expectations, positively impacting the AI and technology sectors, which in turn strengthened the cryptocurrency market in the short term.

From a technical perspective:
• Key levels are 3050 and 3200.
• If it holds above 3050, short-term rebounds can continue;
• If it breaks above 3200, the target looks towards 3270-3400, or even 3550-3660.

However, if it can't break through 3200, there could still be a round of correction at the end of the month, with the range falling between 2400-1660.

Overall:
Nvidia's strong performance boosted sentiment, and ETH has a short-term reversal opportunity, but the height of this opportunity depends on whether 3200 can be effectively broken.

Yesterday, ETH broke below 3000 and BTC broke below 90k, with a significant reduction in bearish momentum, entering a technical repair phase. Short-term signs of stabilization and rebound appeared, with ETH rebounding to around 3170 at its highest. From an overall structure perspective, the short-term bottom has certain effectiveness, but the market is still in a high uncertainty range, and sentiment, policy, liquidity, and geopolitical risks have not improved significantly; the overall trend remains dominated by fluctuations and repeated volatility.

1. News and Market Sentiment
• U.S. Treasury yields remain at high levels, putting pressure on risk assets, and short rebounds lack sustained driving force.
• Inflow of funds into cryptocurrency market ETFs has slowed, with net outflows on-chain still greater than the rebound increment.
• Risk appetite has not recovered, and there is insufficient long positioning; rebounds are mostly technical and sentiment-driven repairs.

2. Technical Structure
From the price behavior on the chart, the downward structure is converging, but the structural gap left by the previous decline has not been fully filled. Currently, ETH's rebound still mainly belongs to "natural repair after a deep drop," and the trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.

Key Resistance Zones:
• 3280–3450: The first short-term resistance zone for rebounds; if volume is insufficient, a second drop is likely to occur.
• 3500–3550: A structural resistance zone, which is the first key condition for determining whether a reversal occurs.
• 3660–3700: An important range repeatedly verified from October to November; only after breaking through does it hold significance for trend reversal.

3. Structural Risks
If the market continues to face obstacles in the above two key ranges (3500–3550, 3660–3700) and no improvements in policy or funding appear, then the previous trend bottom range needs to be reassessed.

New Potential Mid-term Bottom Range:
• 1500–1300
This range corresponds to long-term trend lines, historical trading dense zones, and large cycle moving averages, serving as a potential target zone when rebounds continue to fail and the macro environment tightens further.

Yesterday, ETH reached a high of 3660 USD, then dipped to around 3500 USD, with a fluctuation range of about 200 points. After completing a short-term bottom in this range, the price rebounded to 3650 USD today, but encountered significant resistance at this position. The current market shows that both the lower support and upper pressure are gradually adjusting.

From a structural perspective, the short-term lower support focuses on the 3550–3530 range; if this range can stabilize and form an effective stop-loss, the price is expected to continue rising. There are two phase resistance levels above:
• The first resistance range is around 3750 USD;
• The second resistance range is between 3850–3880 USD.

The key level is between 3850–3900 USD: if this range can be effectively broken, it will open up further upward space, continuing the strong market; conversely, if significant resistance is encountered near 3900, it may trigger strong suppression, leading the market into a phase of oscillatory repair or deep correction. This correction may be relatively repetitive and protracted; if the decline intensifies, the target range may extend down to 2600–1700 USD.

In terms of news, this week the U.S. government ended a shutdown that lasted over 40 days and returned to normal operations. This change means that the liquidity issues at the banking end are expected to ease, enhancing overall market liquidity. As a result, both U.S. stocks and gold saw significant rebounds yesterday. Moreover, with various key economic data about to be released, market volatility may further increase.

However, it is important to note that recently, there has been a continuous net outflow of ETH and BTC ETF products, indicating that institutional funding attitudes remain cautious, which means that the downward risks in the market have not been fully resolved.

Considering the technical aspects, on-chain data, and macro news, ETH is currently at a critical turning point. If it can maintain 3550 USD in the short term and break through the resistance above 3900 USD, it will re-establish a medium-term upward trend; otherwise, the market may still experience a period of structural adjustment.

Currently, ETH is operating in the 3660–3700 range, and the overall upward momentum is beginning to show signs of slowing down. Short-term resistance is concentrated in the 3680–3720 area. If the price is pressured in this region and fails to break through, a technical correction is expected, with support focused on the 3600–3580 range, and further support around 3550.

If the price first pulls back to the 3600–3550 range during the day and receives effective support, there is hope for another push to challenge the upper 3850–3880 area, and a false breakout to around 3900 may even occur. However, if it fails to effectively stabilize above 3900, caution should be exercised regarding short-term pullback risks, and a round of adjustment may come tomorrow.

If the price can steadily break through and stabilize above 3800, it will establish a new upward trend, with a phase target potentially looking towards 4200, further extending to the 4500–4700 range.

From a technical indicator perspective, the MACD momentum bars are starting to narrow, indicating a short-term need for corrective repair; the RSI remains in the 60–65 range, showing that the market still has certain upward momentum, but short-term overbought risks are rising. In terms of trading volume, the upward momentum is gradually shrinking, indicating that the current buying power is slightly insufficient and needs a pullback to build strength.

In terms of news, the overall market sentiment is relatively neutral to bullish, institutional capital inflow is slowing but there has not been a significant outflow. If comments from Federal Reserve officials this week are dovish or Bitcoin remains strong, it will still provide rebound support for ETH.

How to say to reduce now or wait for 3750-3800 to hedge before reducing positions? If it breaks 3800 today, then perhaps it will reach near 4200.

Can you see something?

Currently, ETH has reached a high of 3580. We entered at the lowest point of 3077 and now the maximum profit margin has reached 500 points. Of course, there were additional purchases along the way, so the average price will be different. A new week has started, and a new wave of market activity will begin. If you want to keep up, you can contact me.

After ETH successfully found a bottom near 3200, the bottom gradually rose to 3360, and the current price has risen to 3560, effectively breaking through the previous minor resistance level of 3550. From a technical perspective, the short-term trend still leans strong, with attention on the mid-term resistance level of 3660. If the market breaks through 3660 this Monday but fails to stabilize above 3700, a technical correction back to 3500 may occur; if it can strongly break through and stabilize above 3700, the upper target will point to the range of 3800–3880. If it breaks through this range again, it may open up a mid-term upward space towards 4200+.

On the news front, there are rumors that the U.S. government may restart work soon, and this development could improve market sentiment and liquidity expectations, which would be favorable for overall risk assets. Combining technical and news aspects, ETH still maintains a bullish structure in the short term, but attention should be paid to the bullish-bearish boundary near 3700 and the market reaction after news confirmation.