偷偷炒币的巴菲特

@Shock牙医 If Binance Square were choosing the top 100 most absurd traders instead of the top 100 traders, I’d definitely vote for @Shock牙医 .

From the long posts after his early liquidations, to later showing off fake liquor, and now the recent $USTC red packet!

I suddenly realized this guy is becoming more and more like an entertainment blogger.

When other people get liquidated, their followers unfollow them. When he gets liquidated, his followers wait for the long post.

One night of drinking can entertain the whole Square for days.

The funniest thing is, he doesn’t even seem to try to be funny. That earnest, aggrieved, never-say-die attitude—with just a hint of goofy charm—is entertaining all on its own.

Come to think of it, this fits human nature online pretty well. People say they like watching big shots make money, but in reality, they also love watching an ordinary person who’s relatable, makes mistakes, gets rattled, and keeps trying to make a comeback—because most people are ordinary themselves!

The dentist’s most promising asset may no longer be his trading account. The trading market rewards people who get the direction right, while the attention economy often rewards people who make others feel something.

Someone can get liquidated over and over in the futures market, yet keep growing bigger in the attention market.

Of course, having an audience doesn’t mean you’re good at trading. And when copy trading involves real money, those are two separate things.

But you have to admit, the dentist has carved out a pretty distinctive path. #牙医

🚨 Something very strange is happening

$SPYB The S&P 500 is stuck in a trading range near its all-time high.

Now look at what’s happening beneath the surface:

→ U.S. stock market: $81.6 trillion
→ U.S. GDP: $32.6 trillion

Wall Street is worth 2.5 times the economy it depends on.

So ask yourself:

How can stocks keep making people richer while the people who support them are getting poorer?

This is the part most people overlook.

The S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization.

The bigger the company, the bigger its share.

So every dollar flowing into passive index funds mostly goes to the giants that already dominate the market.

The biggest stocks get the most money every month. Every single month.

Meanwhile, on Main Street:

→ Credit card debt: a record $1.18 trillion
→ Seriously delinquent debt: 10.9%, the highest level in 13 years
→ Subprime auto loan defaults: 7.8%, worse than in 2008
→ Savings rate: down to 3.4%
→ Banks: more than $510 billion in unrealized losses
→ Continuing jobless claims: still rising
→ Full-time jobs: quietly turning into gig work

And the index? Still hovering near its all-time high.

Now do the math:
→ Top 10 companies: about $30 trillion
→ A 10% drop in just those 10: about $3 trillion wiped out
→ That’s nearly 9% of the entire U.S. economy

The other 490 stocks wouldn’t even have to budge.

Let that sink in.

It doesn’t take 500 stocks to crash this market.

It only takes 10.

That’s the risk nobody is pricing in.

I’ve been trading these markets for years.

I’ll keep watching and posting timely updates here! Follow to stay updated!

$BTC is broken!!! Bitcoin may not have reached its true bottom yet. Even stranger, the true bottoms in the past three Bitcoin bear markets all came after the U.S. midterm elections.

I looked through the historical data and noticed a pattern worth paying attention to.

In 2014, BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm elections.

In 2018, BTC bottomed 39 days after the elections.

In 2022, BTC bottomed 13 days after the elections.

Now let's look at how BTC performed in the year after each election.

In 2014, BTC rose about 25%.

In 2018, BTC rose about 45%.

In 2022, BTC rose about 92%.

This year's U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. If we use the longest historical window of 71 days, that brings us to January 13, 2027.

What will be more worth watching from here is Fed liquidity, market leverage, and changes in the holdings of long-term investors.

History won't hand you money according to a calendar. But sometimes, the biggest opportunities appear just when most people no longer believe in history.

Could January 2027 be another opportunity like that? #MidtermElections

10.22: A light piece of news:
I increasingly feel that the most valuable thing in the future may be the right to keep others from knowing how much money you have.

Many people have long mocked privacy coins, calling them money-laundering tools with no future.

But here’s a question: would you want everyone in the world to know your bank balance, every transfer you make, and how much money you receive each day?

Probably not. Yet on public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, if someone links a wallet address to your real identity, they may be able to track your assets and transaction history.

An industry that claims to protect people’s financial freedom has somehow exposed their wealth for the whole world to watch.

That’s absurd in itself.

Now look at the data:

$XMR currently has a market cap of about $11.6 billion.

$ZEC currently has a market cap of about $21.7 billion.

Monero hides both parties to a transaction and the amount by default. It still sees about 27,000 on-chain transactions a day.

Zcash is even more interesting: about 4.96 million ZEC have entered its privacy pool, or roughly 29% of the circulating supply.

That at least shows that people really are using privacy features.

Here’s a bold prediction:

Over the next few years, privacy may become one of the key narratives driving a repricing of the crypto industry.

As AI gets better at analyzing data and on-chain tracking becomes more precise, the issue of personal assets being transparent will only become more pronounced.

Of course, XMR and ZEC are no longer obscure, low-priced coins. ZEC’s gains in particular have been astonishing. There are also risks involving regulation, exchange delistings, and the security of privacy protocols.

So I’d only consider putting a small portion of my portfolio into them as a risk position, buying a little at a time.
One last thing:
Poor people worry that others won’t know they have money; rich people worry that others will know exactly how much they have.

Bitcoin gave people, for the first time, real control over their own assets.

But in the next stage, more and more people may start asking: why should the whole world be able to watch my assets?

#XMR #zec

#中国寻求没收61800枚比特币
Chinese people were defrauded of 40 billion yuan, and British police seized 60,000 bitcoins. The most surreal part is that the fraudster went to prison, while the money could end up making the British government a fortune.

There’s a new development in the Qian Zhimin case: prosecutors in Tianjin have applied to seize 61,896 BTC, worth around $5 billion.

Where did these coins come from?

From 2014 to 2017, Qian Zhimin ran a fraudulent investment scheme in China, illegally raising more than 40 billion yuan. She then converted some of the funds into bitcoin and eventually fled to the UK.

British police seized the bitcoins in question in 2018.

Now things get interesting.

The Chinese victims want to recover their losses, Chinese prosecutors have applied to seize the assets, and the British government is also handling these bitcoins through legal proceedings.

More subtly, a British court has just ruled that whether the victims own these BTC must be determined under Chinese law.

Note: the court has only ruled on which law applies. It has not decided who will ultimately get the coins, let alone who should get any increase in their value.

A rather absurd question suddenly occurred to me:

Suppose the people who were defrauded only get their original investment back, while someone else walks away with the gains from bitcoin’s huge surge in value over the years.

Then who is the biggest winner in this fraud case?

The fraudster goes to prison, the victims wait in anguish, and in the end someone could unexpectedly gain billions of dollars in asset appreciation just by holding onto stolen funds.

That’s the most troubling part of this whole story.

As for $BTC , I don’t think this news is inherently bearish.

More than 60,000 BTC have been under British police control for years. They aren’t a sudden increase in supply. What will really affect the market is who eventually holds them, when they’re dealt with, and whether they’re sold.

And behind all this lies a question more profound than the price of bitcoin:

Bitcoin is said to have no borders, but once law enforcement gets hold of the private keys, ownership is still determined by national law.

Decentralization can let assets cross borders, but it can’t automatically resolve ownership disputes in the real world.

Perhaps the most ironic thing is this:

Bitcoin solved the problem of transferring money without going through a bank, but it didn’t solve the problem of who ultimately gets to decide who owns the money.
#QianZhiminCase

Trump is bound to lose the midterm elections, and $BTC may be in for a brutal storm!

Trump’s popularity has already collapsed.

Even MAGA supporters think he’s a traitor.

On October 17, Trump faced an extremely humiliating scene at a campaign rally in traditionally “red” Kansas: his once most loyal, blue-collar supporters in the audience actually shouted at him, “Traitor! You’re a fucking traitor!” and raised their middle fingers without holding back.

This scene confirms that Trump’s die-hard, working-class base is visibly collapsing.

Even Musk’s efforts to buy support and votes failed to reverse Trump’s decline. #特朗普拟阐述打击海外加密诈骗

Western medicine really packs a punch!

#美国国债

The U.S. Treasury received $35.48 billion in bids for its $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond offering. Even so, the final winning yield was as high as 5.469%—the highest since Treasury bonds of this maturity were reintroduced in 2020.

This was certainly not a “buyers’ strike.” The bid-to-cover ratio rose from 2.57 in September to 2.73. Indirect bidders’ share of the allocation increased from 52.5% to 58.2%, while primary dealers’ share fell from 16.9% to 10.3%. Demand improved, but so did the “price” (in the form of higher yields) required to meet it.

For AI stocks, $BTC , and any other assets betting on “prosperity in the distant future,” a 5.469% yield is a formidable and costly competitor.

Long-term Treasuries still carry significant duration risk, but they offer investors substantial nominal returns without requiring them to predict chip demand, token adoption, or data center profit margins.

Only real growth can clear this hurdle; enthusiasm alone is nowhere near enough.

The U.S. Treasury successfully sold the entire bond offering, with the final yield set at 5.469%.
#股票市场 #Bitcoin

#股票财报季
SpaceX’s artificial intelligence (AI) division invested $16.4 billion in a single quarter and ended up generating $431 million in operating profit—the kind of financial performance the AI industry usually promises for the future.

Revenue jumped quarter over quarter from $2.56 billion to $7.56 billion. The acquisition of Cursor contributed $608 million, accounting for about 12% of the roughly $5 billion sequential increase. Meanwhile, nominal computing capacity grew by just 21%, rising from 1.4 gigawatts (GW) to 1.7 GW.

Infrastructure capacity alone is just a vast warehouse; with contracts in force, it becomes a real business.

The scale of investment remains staggering: third-quarter AI capital expenditures exceeded the division’s revenue by more than two times—even though these assets are expected to keep generating returns over the coming years. A single profitable quarter is not enough to show that lifetime returns have reached an acceptable level.

Even so, SpaceX has crossed a threshold that many AI builders have yet to move beyond the “vision” stage: it has disclosed revenue and operating profit, and it has paying customers.

The next test is whether its margins can hold up without a boost from further acquisitions. The “halo” around data centers is forged by every dollar of revenue they actually bring in.
#SpaceX #AI基础设施 #DataCenters

Korean retail investors have sent obscure altcoins soaring. Today, $DOOD surged 113%, $IOST rose 81%, and $MPLX climbed 42%.

So far, I haven’t seen any major positive news that would explain the gains in DOOD or IOST. MPLX, on the other hand, has a KRW trading pair launching on Upbit and a trading rewards campaign.

I specifically checked Upbit’s trading data and found something even more outrageous:

DOOD saw over $100 million in trading volume on Upbit in a single day, accounting for about 10% of the exchange’s total trading volume.

An obscure altcoin somehow traded more than Bitcoin.

It suddenly reminded me of an old saying in crypto: Koreans are in charge of pumping prices, while retail investors around the world are left figuring out why they went up.

I think there’s a very real signal here: it’s not that speculative money has disappeared from the market. It’s that investors are increasingly reluctant to prop up altcoins with massive market caps, constant token unlocks, and heavy overhead supply.

Instead, coins with small market caps, lighter supply, and a sudden influx of buyers are more likely to make spectacular moves.

But don’t chase DOOD. After doubling in a day, what you see is a 113% gain; those who got in early may see a perfect exit into liquidity.

The worst-case scenario is that the Koreans are already getting ready to cash out just as you finish reading the project white paper!
#DOOD #IOST #MPLX

Let's do a survey:
2015 — You missed Ethereum.
2016 — You missed Zcash.
2017 — You missed Binance.
2018 — You missed Uniswap.
2019 — You missed Chainlink.
2020 — You missed Aave.
2021 — You missed Solana.
2022 — You missed Arbitrum.
2023 — You missed Sui.
2024 — You missed Ethena.
2025 — You missed Hyperliquid.
2026 — So, what will you miss this time? #SPCX #CRCL

If hackers breach Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, #比特币将会发生什么图形

$HYPE is currently the most dangerous consensus trade in crypto.

Arthur Hayes's latest comments make his earlier statements look increasingly absurd.

On August 25, 2025, he called for HYPE to grow 126x.

Then he wrote an entire article predicting that $HYPE would reach $150 by the summer of 2026.

Yet every time, he starts selling before $HYPE even reaches $100.

Now he says he'll use Hyperliquid as a consumer but doesn't want to be an investor. What the hell?

It's the same playbook every time: hype it up, hope for a quick pump, then quietly sell. A while later, he comes back claiming he needs a down payment on a Ferrari.

Ignore these comments from shady characters. Stay confident in your convictions. #HYPE

#Anthropic招股书草案显示上半年亏损807亿美元 💗Shocking: Behind the $80 Billion Loss—The Financial-Statement Sleight of Hand Everyone Misread

According to a draft prospectus reported by The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic posted a net loss of more than $80 billion in the first half of the year.

Retail investors were spooked. But if you look only at the loss, you’re completely misreading this AI game.

Of that $80 billion, $72 billion was merely an accounting figure caused by changes in the valuation of financing instruments—not money actually spent.
By contrast, its actual commercial revenue soared from $1.1 billion last year to $16.3 billion, a nearly 15-fold increase.

An “$80 billion loss” on paper, while revenue surges 15-fold—that’s the shell game of the capital markets.

Ordinary people look at losses; savvy investors look at the burn rate. Using traditional “is it profitable?” metrics to evaluate AI is extremely dangerous. These three brutal questions will determine who survives:
* The real burn rate: Strip out the accounting figures—how much cash is it actually burning each day?
* Cost pressures: Can the pace of compute-cost reductions outrun the price cuts sweeping the large-model market?
* Ability to deliver: Can the thousands of billions it owes in compute bills eventually turn into hard cash?

The real danger has never been in the financial statements. It’s the bleeding artery of cash flow.

Once you strip away the non-cash accounting games, if the core business keeps deteriorating and operating cash flow fails to improve—

Don’t hesitate. That’s when you should run for the hills.

Elon Musk confirms for the first time: SpaceX and Tesla have formed a special committee to explore a potential merger.

The market erupted instantly. SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue surged 161% to $14.58 billion. AI business revenue alone reached a staggering $7.56 billion, nearly 10 times higher year over year. After the news broke, SpaceX shares jumped about 8% in after-hours trading.

But everyone knows the terms are still undecided, and the deal could ultimately come to nothing.

The vastly underestimated business dead ends and opportunities: Many investors are still trying to size up TSLA based on delivery volumes and gross margins. They couldn’t be more wrong.

Musk doesn’t care about cars. He’s planning the ultimate takeover of the physical and digital worlds:
Torso: robots handle physical tasks;
Brain: AI models make computing decisions;
Heart: chips handle underlying computation;
Nerves: satellite networks provide global connectivity;
Blood: energy systems supply power.

If the merger goes through, what you’re buying isn’t a stock—it’s a vertically integrated, monopolistic computing infrastructure.

But here’s the brutal truth: The dream of industry synergies may be incredibly elegant, while the merger’s acquisition price could be incredibly ugly.

$TSLA / $SPCXB
Behind the frenzy, only cold geometry will determine success or failure. Keep a close eye on four critical pressure points:
1. The potential share-swap ratio (who pays for the premium);
2. The black box of power in related-party transactions;
3. Massive capital expenditures (CapEx) draining cash flow;
4. And the fatal dilution of equity.
#TSLA #SPCX

Even if $BTC falls 28% over the course of a year, cryptocurrency exchanges can still thrive—as long as they offer users other assets to trade.

That search for new opportunities points straight to “prediction markets.” According to the Financial Times, monthly trading volume on the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, surged 324%, from about $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September. Blockchain.com applied for the relevant U.S. license last week, and Binance US is reportedly also seeking regulatory approval. Meanwhile, platforms such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Gemini have also moved into the market.

The strategy is obvious: transform crypto apps into trading platforms covering elections, interest rates, sports, weather, and more. Even if users grow tired of trading Bitcoin, they can still trade in other markets and generate fee revenue.

This changes how exchange businesses should be valued. Crypto prices will still affect trading activity, but distribution, regulatory access, and users’ continued engagement may prove more valuable than their loyalty to any particular coin.

Going forward, keep an eye on prediction-market trading volumes, platform take rates, and regulatory restrictions across jurisdictions. In a bull market, any exchange can look “smart”; turning a profit in a bear market is what truly demonstrates a platform’s strength. $BNB

#PredictionMarkets

On October 19, $BNB Chain announced that it had burned 1.646 million BNB tokens, worth approximately $1.2 billion. I checked the supply data: this planned burn alone accounted for 99.5% of the net supply decline between the latest two burn announcements.

Its reported total supply fell from 133.166 million after the July burn to 131.512 million after the October burn—a net decrease of approximately 1.654 million. The latest quarterly burn accounts for nearly all of this decline.

The burn mechanisms matter. The quarterly Auto-Burn mechanism determines the amount to be burned based on the price of BNB and block production; in addition, the BEP-95 mechanism burns a portion of the gas fees users pay.

This is a supply-reduction measure. There are indeed fewer tokens in circulation; the question to watch next is whether users are putting the remaining tokens to greater use.
#bnb #BNBChain #TokenBurn

$BTC The more the market stagnates, the more you should avoid using leverage.

The width of Bitcoin’s daily Bollinger Bands has contracted to an extreme level not seen in nearly two and a half years.

Historically, when this happens:

In 2018, after volatility hit an extreme low, BTC plunged about 41% in two weeks.

This May, BTC fell from around $82,000 to below $58,000; in August, it staged another rally of more than 35%.

BTC is currently seesawing around $80,000, while futures open interest is also low. Next, keep an eye on support at $80,000 and resistance at $85,000, and watch for genuine buying to follow through if the price breaks out.

Manage your position size, reduce leverage, keep some cash on hand, prepare for the unexpected, and leave yourself room to maneuver. I’ll keep monitoring the situation and share updates as they come!
#BTC #Bitcoin

Everyone is waiting for the S&P 500 to plunge 20% before declaring a bear market. But many individual stocks may have already completed a correction.

On October 19, the S&P 500 closed at 7,690.73. Morgan Stanley noted that since mid-August, quality stocks have risen about 6%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 has fallen about 4%. The index’s performance masks an internal correction. What’s really worth watching is whether heavyweight stocks now catch down or lagging stocks catch up.

Trading focus: Compare the relative performance of $SPY and $RSPG.ETF , the percentage of constituents trading above their 200-day moving averages, and earnings expectations for leading tech stocks.

When market breadth continues to recover and the equal-weight S&P 500 starts to outperform, it may signal that the internal correction is over.

A new rally is about to begin! #SPY #S&P500Breaks7800ForTheFirstTimeAndHitsRecordHigh

#韩国KOSPI指数跌超2%
The biggest bullish signal for U.S. stocks right now is that so many people are convinced the AI bubble is about to burst.

Open the news, and everyone is analyzing $NVDA valuations and predicting a tech-stock crash.

But let me ask you this: when has a crazy bull market in history ever ended while everyone was still on their guard?

In 1996, Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance,” but the Nasdaq didn’t peak until 2000.

Spotting a bubble early is useless—you have to pinpoint the top to be impressive, and nobody can do that. What we should really worry about is that people all over the world shouting about an AI bubble will finally lose patience and go all-in on the long side. #NVDA