AlphaEntry

The most reliable altseason indicator just came in and the number isn’t great for now.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 48.2, below expectations of 49.

That means manufacturing activity is still contracting.

Quick reminder of what ISM PMI actually measures:

It’s a monthly survey of 400+ manufacturing companies, where they answer basic questions like:

➠ Did new orders increase or fall this month?
➠ Is production rising or slowing down?
➠ Are you hiring or cutting staff?
➠ Are supplier deliveries faster or slower?
➠ Are inventories building up or running low?

All of these responses form a single number:

• 50+ = expansion
• Below 50 = slowdown

Today’s 48.2 reading clearly shows the economy hasn’t turned upward yet.

Here’s why this matters for crypto, especially alts:

In both previous cycles, ISM had a very clear relationship with big altcoin runs:

➠ 2017 AltSeason → ISM above 55
➠ 2021 AltSeason → ISM above 55

Altseasons didn’t happen in weakness, they happened when manufacturing, demand, and hiring were showing strong momentum.

Right now, ISM is still far from that level.

But the important part is what comes next:

• Rate cuts in 2026
• Looser financial conditions
• Potential policy changes
• Better liquidity across the system

These are the ingredients that can gradually push ISM back above 50, and eventually toward the 55 range where previous altseasons formed.

Today’s number doesn’t change the long-term outlook, it simply shows the economy hasn’t picked up yet.

If ISM starts trending upward over the next few months, that’s when the early signals for a 2026 altseason become meaningful.

For now, the data confirms one thing:

We’re still in the waiting for expansion phase not the altseason phase yet.