👀 ʙɪᴛᴄᴏɪɴ ʀᴀʟʟʏ ᴏʀ ʙᴜʟʟ ᴛʀᴀᴘ?
This Bitcoin rally looks more like a bull trap than the start of a new bull market.
While BTC has added nearly $100B in market cap over five days, the data doesn't support the idea that $81K was the cycle bottom. In true uptrends, Bitcoin and BTC dominance lead. This time, altcoins are outperforming while dominance falls-typical of a relief rally.
Whale behavior confirms this. Wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC remain net sellers, and apparent demand continues to trend lower, a pattern seen after cycle tops.
Bitcoin may still push toward $102K-$104K near the 200-day SMA, but historically such rallies don't break prior highs and are followed by renewed downtrends.
Macro conditions also argue for caution. The ISM index is at a 14-month low, and major rallies have only occurred when ISM is above 50-likely not until 2026.
