According to Odaily, experts from Argentum AI and Coin Bureau have indicated that the threat posed by quantum computing to cryptocurrencies by 2026 remains largely theoretical rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, head of AI at Argentum AI, anticipates that the commercial application of quantum computing will be extremely limited by 2026. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, suggests that 90% of the quantum threat narrative is marketing-driven, and it will likely be at least a decade before computers capable of breaking current cryptographic systems emerge.
Despite this, experts acknowledge potential risks to public key cryptography, which underpins blockchain networks like Bitcoin. Sofiia Kireieva from Boosty Labs highlights that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), used for private and public keys, is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function is less vulnerable. Ahmad Shadid, founder of O Foundation, notes that address reuse significantly increases the risk of being compromised.
Currently, approximately 25% to 30% of BTC, or about 4 million coins, are stored in addresses with exposed public keys, making them more susceptible to quantum computer attacks. Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, warns that the real threat in 2026 is not system collapse but attackers collecting as much encrypted data as possible for future decryption when technology matures. Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, describes this as a "collect now, decrypt later" attack scenario.
In response to potential threats, the crypto community has taken proactive measures. In November, Qastle announced plans to upgrade underlying cryptography to provide quantum-level security for hot wallets. Experts advise users to avoid reusing addresses and to migrate funds to quantum-resistant wallets when available. While a quantum doomsday is not expected in 2026, quantum computing will become a significant risk factor in the field of crypto security.
