Solana has dropped from last week's consolidation after failing to maintain an upward momentum, thus postponing a possible recovery towards $150. Since then, SOL has been traded cautiously, awaiting more solid confirmations.
Recent on-chain and institutional activities suggest that investors are positioning themselves for a rebound, potentially creating the conditions for a new price strengthening towards the end of the year or early January.
Solana holders have the leash of ETFs
The Solana ecosystem introduces an innovative catalyst with the on-chain “Creator ETFs,” also known as Bands, launched via Bands.fun. These products differ from traditional exchange-traded instruments: they operate directly on the Solana blockchain as programmable wallets curated by creators, analysts, or influencers.
Creator ETFs can bundle tokens or NFTs and automatically rebalance the portfolio based on predefined rules. Increasing adoption could boost on-chain activity and transaction volume. Greater network usage often tends to favor price recovery, strengthening the demand for SOL as a utility token.
Institutions see potential
Exchange reserve data represents another constructive signal. Solana balances on centralized exchanges have significantly decreased over the last 10 days. During this period, investors have accumulated approximately 2.65 million SOL, valued at $345 million.
The decrease in exchange balances usually indicates an accumulation phase rather than a distribution one. Holders seem inclined to move their assets into self-custody mode, reducing immediate selling pressure. This behavior suggests confidence in Solana's long-term outlook and supports the hypothesis of a possible stabilization after recent weakness.
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Institutional sentiment towards Solana remains strong despite overall market uncertainty. CoinShares' weekly report shows that SOL attracted inflows of $48.5 million in the week ending December 20. Inflows since the beginning of the month are now at $117.6 million.
These allocations signal ongoing institutional interest. Professional investors often accumulate during consolidation phases. Continuous inflows can help balance retail sales and provide a foundation for recovery when market conditions improve.
Solana is trading near $124 at the time of writing, positioning itself below the resistance at $126. The combination of on-chain innovation, outflows from exchanges, and institutional inflows could support an attempt at recovery between the end of December and the beginning of January.
A breach of the $126 threshold would represent an initial confirmation. Recovery of $130 would further strengthen sentiment. The primary upward target is near $136. Breaching this level would indicate progress towards recovering the losses recorded at the beginning of the month.
The risks remain if sales were to pick up or if the general markets weakened. A drop in the price of Solana below $123 could expose support at $118. The loss of this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and delay any recovery triggered by ecosystem or institutional catalysts.
