The year 2025 ended weaker than expectations for the crypto market. The fourth quarter did not deliver the expected results, and the dynamics of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most altcoins lagged behind gold and silver.
In 2026, the market enters with a set of risks that could affect prices and investor sentiment. Crypto blogger Coin22 discussed them in his new video.
Macroeconomics
The global economy in 2026 may show growth of around 3%, with risks tilted towards a slowdown. Investors are becoming more cautious, and interest in risky assets is declining. The U.S. remains the main source of liquidity, but economic forecasts are restrained: higher unemployment, inflation around 2.5%, and a soft, slow reduction in rates. Increased costs for servicing government debt intensify interest in bonds and reduce interest in risky assets.
The Bank of Japan's policy can increase volatility. Rate hikes make financing more expensive, reduce risk appetite, and lead to a reduction in leverage. Even with rate cuts, liquidity may not increase if a significant portion of funds goes into government bonds.
Risks of the tech sector and AI
The artificial intelligence sector has become the main center of capital attraction. In the event of an economic slowdown or weak real results from companies, a correction of 20–30% seems likely. In such situations, the market usually reduces risk, liquidity decreases, and Bitcoin often moves in sync with tech assets.
Geopolitics
The danger is related to the consequences of tensions: increasing uncertainty, rising energy resource prices, strengthening of the dollar, and tightening financial conditions. Escalation in the Middle East, risks around Venezuela or Taiwan can revive inflation concerns and cause declines in the range of 15–30% in the short term.
Institutional money
In 2024–2025, funds and ETFs became a key source of capital inflow. In 2026, a slowdown in inflow rates is not excluded. Under worsening macro conditions, funds reduce activity and partially lock in profits. Even a redistribution at the level of 5–10% can create noticeable pressure. The likely concentration of demand is around Bitcoin and the largest assets, while altcoins risk facing liquidity shortages.
Retail investors
The share of sellers in retail is growing, the activity of small participants is declining, and the outflow of coins to exchanges is increasing. This dynamic reflects fatigue and caution, rather than a mandatory end of the cycle.
Results
The cryptocurrency market enters 2026 more mature, but remains sensitive to rates, liquidity, macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the actions of major players. The main risks are expensive money, a possible economic slowdown, the influence of the tech sector, and a decrease in institutional inflows.
The main 'black swan' for Bitcoin in 2026 is hidden not within the cryptocurrency market, but in external macroeconomics. The scenario involves three factors: expensive money, liquidity shortages, and a sharp deterioration in conditions for risk.
Want to be part of a large and friendly BIC community? Then join our group on Telegram — there you will find communication with crypto enthusiasts, help from our experts, and exclusive comments from experienced analysts.
