BlockBeats message, December 23, Greeks.live posted on social media indicating that this week is the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. During this period, both institutional and retail investors in Europe and the United States typically do not trade, and this trend usually continues until after New Year's Day. This Friday (26th) is the annual settlement day, and currently over 50% of the total options positions are waiting to expire.
Most institutions have chosen to roll over their positions early. Since last week, the implied volatility (IV) for major expiration dates has started to decline significantly, while the proportion of block trades has increased.
Under the combined effects of decreasing volatility, the Christmas trading period, and year-end position rolling, the implied volatility of Bitcoin across all major expiration dates has fallen by more than 5% over the past month, with the medium and short-term IV declining even more than 10%. The IV of Ethereum has decreased even more significantly.
These data collectively indicate that market expectations are low, and consensus suggests that low volatility will persist over the next two weeks. The market is likely to remain subdued for the next half month and may gradually decline.
