Author: 0xBrooker
For the global financial markets, last week was a 'de-risking week', with multiple significant data points, interest rate events, and settlement dates occurring, gradually alleviating short-term risks in the US stock market.
BTC is still in the deleveraging/repricing phase after the peak of $126,000 in October 2025, with a 30+% pullback. The price is repeatedly testing the range of $85,000 to $90,000 and has yet to form a trend reversal signal.
In terms of market participants, long positions continue to reduce, retail investors are consistently withdrawing, while DATs and whale groups are steadily increasing their holdings. The game is still undecided, but the selling trend is slowing down, and macro liquidity is easing, which has somewhat restored trading enthusiasm. In the coming weeks, BTC is expected to challenge $94,000 again.
Policy, macro finance, and economic data
Multiple significant data points, interest rate events, and settlement dates have landed in the global financial market, collectively strengthening the consensus of "the U.S. economy is on a moderate recession path with employment + inflation gradually receding towards a soft landing." U.S. stocks showed an initial decline followed by a rise throughout the week, indicating that the market has completed the equivalence of already occurred events, suggesting a relief of short-term risks. BTC also moved in tandem with U.S. stocks, ultimately rising slightly by 0.53%.
On December 16, the U.S. Department of Labor released non-farm employment data for October and November. Among them, non-farm jobs in October decreased by 105,000, while non-farm jobs in November rebounded by 64,000 from the low point, but still remained weak. The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2022.
U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate
On December 18, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI data for November, with CPI year-on-year growth at 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected value of 3.1%. Core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6%, also significantly lower than the expected value of 3%. Due to the government shutdown and insufficient data collection issues, several institutions have indicated that this data may have statistical distortions, and its repeatability needs to be verified with subsequent December data. In a speech on Friday, Federal Reserve "number three" John Williams also emphasized this point. This means that a rate cut in January remains a low probability event.
The unemployment rate has reached a new high in years, while CPI data has "dropped significantly". Although the confidence level is low due to collection reasons, the market still maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to implement two rate cuts of 50 basis points each in 2026.
On December 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously passed an interest rate hike decision, raising the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years. At the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that future adjustments will be based on data; he also pointed out that the current interest rate is still below the estimated neutral range, and the real interest rate remains negative.
Because market pricing has been completed, and the daily central bank report indicates a "dovish" stance. The USD/JPY has continued to rebound after hitting a low on Tuesday, approaching this year's high again. This has greatly weakened market expectations for the impact of the yen's interest rate hike and the dollar's rate cut on the Carry Trade. Markets have returned to their original logical tracks.
Affected by the yen's interest rate hike decision, on Friday, the U.S. market's "Triple Witching Day" (stock index options, stock index futures, and individual stock options) nominal value of 7.1 trillion in derivatives settlement performed steadily, with the three major U.S. stock indices continuing to rise and closing at their highest points.
Although concerns about AI spending and profitability have not been eliminated, the dollar's rate cut, the yen's interest rate hike, and the stabilization of U.S. inflation and employment data have temporarily allowed the market to traverse through turbulent zones. Although BTC is still hovering at a low rebound level, it has temporarily alleviated the macro financial risks and the liquidity shortage that led to the $80,000 low point, making a rebound hopeful.
Traders are beginning to anticipate the "Christmas rally" and are waiting for market guidance after the January data recovery.
Cryptocurrency market
As a leading indicator of global macro liquidity, BTC has continued to decline since October, driven on one hand by sell-offs of high-beta assets under tight liquidity conditions and deleveraging, and on the other hand by long positions reducing their holdings driven by "cyclical laws".
BTC daily line trend
From the on-chain data perspective, the "long-handed group" sell-offs are still ongoing, with nearly 90,000 BTC activated as short positions last week, of which 12,686 were directly converted to exchange sell-offs. The total sell-off by long and short positions last week reached 174,100 BTC, lower than the previous week, but still maintained at a high level.
Exchange sell-off scale statistics (weekly)
The exchange has reversed the outflow trend, showing a slight accumulation last week, which is all a pessimistic signal.
However, the rolling scale of exchange sell-offs over 30 days is declining, indicating that the most intense sell-off phase in the short term is passing.
Sell-offs are increasing, but funds are flowing out.
Cryptocurrency market fund inflow and outflow statistics (weekly)
Since hitting the bottom on November 21, funds have gradually shown positive inflows, but last week began to flow out, with both the stablecoin and ETF channels experiencing simultaneous outflows. This is the fundamental reason for BTC's price dipping again and struggling to rebound, indicating that the sell-off has not significantly diminished, but buying power is being lost. After the macro risks are alleviated, whether buying power can return this week is crucial.
From an on-chain supply perspective, currently 67% of BTC is in profit, while 33% of supply is in a loss state, the lowest level since the current bull market's upward phase.
Including on-chain and ETF channels, retail investors are still withdrawing from the market. Buying power comes from DATs and whale groups, which have a higher win rate as a contrarian trading group. They continue their actions. In the past two years of the bull market, they have shown an extremely high win rate, becoming a major force in shaping the market.
Last week, CPI, inflation, and the yen's interest rate hike were preliminarily defused. This week, whether ETF channel funds will return or continue to flow out may determine the short-term trend of BTC. As for the medium-term trend—whether it will continue to rebound and challenge $94,000 or even recover the cost line of $103,000 for short-term investors, or whether it will again explore the ground and fall into a bear market, remains to be seen through further games among various trading groups.
Cycle indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, entering a "downward phase" (bear market).
(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with the authorization of partner PANews, original link | Source: EMC Labs)
"The macro liquidity crisis has temporarily eased, and the trend of sell-offs has decreased. Bitcoin is expected to hit $94,000". This article was first published by (Blockcast).
