The price of Bitcoin spent most of December moving sideways, frustrating both bulls and bears. Despite short-term volatility, the overall structure remains stuck in a range as the market approaches the end of the year.
Bitcoin has grown by about 5% in the last 30 days, but the last week has mostly been flat. This lack of direction reveals uncertainty. However, recent on-chain data suggests that something is changing, especially in the spot market. Buying pressure has increased significantly, leading to a fundamental question: will this change in demand finally help Bitcoin break through its strongest resistance in the short term (the wall)?
Whales and outflows from exchanges show that buying pressure is increasing.
In recent days, two on-chain signals stand out: whale behavior and outflows from exchanges.
First of all, the number of entities holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin has started to rise again after a sharp drop on December 17. This data monitors large holders, known as whales. When this figure increases, it means that larger operators are accumulating rather than selling.
Since December 20, the number of these large entities has been gradually increasing. Although it remains slightly below the six-month highs, the direction is important. Whales are also cautiously adding exposure as Bitcoin prices stabilize.
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Secondly, the net change in positions on exchanges shows a strong increase in buying activity. This data measures how many coins are being moved in or out of centralized exchanges. If more coins are leaving exchanges, it usually means that buyers are likely moving Bitcoin into self-custody, reducing immediate selling pressure.
On December 19, outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges were approximately 26,098 Bitcoin. By December 21, outflows surged to 41,493 Bitcoin. This is a 59% increase in net outflows in just two days.
This difference is significant. Whale accumulation has been consistent but contained. Outflows from exchanges, on the other hand, have accelerated much more rapidly. This suggests that even retail and mid-sized buyers are likely stepping in alongside the whales, increasing spot demand across the market.
These signals, when put together, show that spot buying pressure is increasing, even though the price has not yet broken the range.
What are the Bitcoin price levels determining the next path?
Whether this buying pressure is relevant now depends on Bitcoin's key price levels.
The most important resistance (the wall) is around $89,250. This level has blocked every attempt to rise since mid-December and corresponds to several failed breakout attempts. As long as Bitcoin does not decisively close above this level, the market will remain in the range.
If buyers manage to reclaim $89,250, Bitcoin may attempt to move towards $96,700, one of the strongest upper resistance zones on the chart. That level has rejected the price multiple times and would represent the next big test.
On the downside, $87,590 remains the key short-term support. A clear break below this level would expose the price to $83,550, followed by a greater risk towards $80,530 in case of an acceleration of sales.
In summary, Bitcoin is being squeezed between increasing buying pressure and stubborn resistance. Whales are cautiously adding exposure, outflows from exchanges are accelerating, and the price is approaching a decision point. Whether Bitcoin will soon break upward depends on one thing: will this surge in demand finally overcome the wall at $89,250, or will the range hold until the new year?
