As Bitcoin's recent trend shows signs of fatigue and market sentiment turns cautious, Citigroup has released an outlook report, predicting that in the base case over the next 12 months, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $143,000. Calculating from the current price of about $88,000 means that Bitcoin has a potential upside of 62%.
Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo pointed out in a joint report that as we enter the new year, Bitcoin's price range may fall between "$80,000 to $90,000", mainly supported by user activity, but the real highlight will be next year.
The Citibank analysis team predicts that as the legislative process related to digital assets in the U.S. is expected to make substantial progress in the second quarter, cryptocurrency adoption will usher in a new wave of explosion.
On the technical side, the Citibank team specifically pointed out that $70,000 is the critical 'psychological barrier' and support level. Analysts noted that this price level is roughly the starting point before Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, which has significant indicative meaning. If it falls below this level, market confidence is likely to be tested.
3 types of scenario analysis: from recession risk to bull market
To allow investors to more accurately assess risks and rewards, Citibank has outlined 3 possible scenarios for Bitcoin's performance over the next 12 months:
1. Basic scenario (Base Case): Directly hitting $143,000
This is the scenario Citibank believes is most likely to occur. The recovery of demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs and the spillover effects of overall optimism in the U.S. stock market.
Analysts pointed out that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be an important catalyst. This bill, aimed at clarifying regulatory responsibilities, has passed the House of Representatives. If it can be successfully legislated and signed into law, it will remove the biggest obstacles for institutional funds to enter the market and further drive a wave of capital inflow.
2. Pessimistic scenario (Bear Case): Dropping to $78,500
Even in the worst-case scenario, Citibank believes that Bitcoin's downside potential is relatively limited. Analysts believe that if the global economy falls into recession, it could drag down the performance of risk assets, and Bitcoin would be hard to remain unaffected.
3. Optimistic scenario (Bull Case): Soaring to $189,000
The premise for this scenario is that end investor demand will fully explode, including more long-term capital, retirement funds, and large institutions incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocation, forming a more sustainable buying structure.
"Citibank: Bitcoin's target price next year is $143,000, with the most optimistic possibility of soaring to $189,000". This article was first published on (Blockcast).
