Fidelity's macro director Timmer pointed out that a four-year cycle might be reaching a phase end, estimating that if Bitcoin continues to decline, it could test support at $65,000 to $75,000 in 2026. (Background: The largest options expiration in Bitcoin's history is approaching! Glassnode: The market is still pricing in downside risks, BTC's volatility might explode this New Year.) (Additional context: No Bitcoin, no building! The headquarters of Modern Group received bomb threat emails, with the suspect demanding 13 BTC.) Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating around $88,000 for the past 24 hours, while Ethereum is very close to $3,000 but has not been able to truly break above it. At this time, Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer recently indicated through historical chart comparisons that the peak of Bitcoin's 'four-year halving cycle' seems to have appeared, and investors may need to face a period of low momentum in the next year. $126,000 may become the cycle peak. Timmer overlapped the trends of 2025 with the ending of the bull markets in 2013 and 2017, discovering similarities in price and time trajectories. He pointed out that the cooling of ETF buying, institutional profit-taking, along with the positive effects of Trump's election already priced in, are the main reasons for Bitcoin's retreat from its peak to the $87,000 range. Thus, Timmer judges that the 'expansion phase has entered its final stage.' However, from a technical perspective, if $126,000 is viewed as the peak in 2025, the current approximately 30% pullback is still moderate. Timmer emphasized that this does not negate a long-term bull market but is a typical mid-term correction. While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt — Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025. Fallow year support range $65,000 to $75,000. Looking ahead to 2026, Timmer estimates that based on the past rule of 'bull markets often being weak in the year following,' the market will enter a year of fallow. If the decline continues, $65,000 to $75,000 will provide the first level of support, which also overlaps with the dense trading area from early 2025. If calculated from the peak, a drop to $65,000 represents about a 48% adjustment, falling within the middle of historical winters. Additionally, the shrinking net inflow of ETFs, RSI retreating to around 55, and potential chain selling pressure after losing $80,000 are all cooling signals in his view. CryptoSlate's analysis also suggests that if the rebound cannot return to the pressure zone of $94,000 to $105,000, the bearish advantage will continue. In summary, he advises investors to keep cash, diversify risks, and waiting for the price to drop to $65,000 to $75,000 may be an opportunity to accumulate again; if BTC breaks above $100,000, then this forecast should be reassessed. Patience and risk management remain essential conditions for surviving the winter. Related reports: Has the Bitcoin supercycle ended? Fidelity warns: 2026 may fall into winter, support at $65,000-$75,000. The Bank of Japan 'raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75%', the highest rate in 30 years, Bitcoin surged to $87,500. 'Fidelity analysts: Bitcoin 2026 is a 'fallow year,' support range $65,000-$75,000.' This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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