Bitcoin is currently pressed below the trend line
$BTC three trend line charts
Chart 1
The weekly level upward trend has broken
After BTC broke the upward trend line, it has repeatedly tested the rise in recent weeks but has not broken through again. According to my logic that a rebound is definitely coming, these attempts are also a sign of a rebound, but the effect has obviously not met expectations.
If it can break through 94600 in the future and touch the upward trend line at a higher position, that would be a good opportunity to exit in spot trading.
Chart 2:
The weekly level downward trend line may show a third touch point, thus determining the approximate position within the downward trend line.
The price at this touch point may be around 90000.
That is to say, there is a certain possibility that the 98000 point I have been mentioning recently cannot be reached, and at most it can only reach the recent weak rebound high of 94000.
This increasing probability is more evident in the daily level trend line.
Chart 3:
The daily level downward trend line may have already formed three touch points. Because of Tables 2 and 3, we have to pay attention to the rising probability of this very weak rebound.
Conclusion
Can the probability of rebounding to 98000 exceed the probability of rebounding to around 90000? I believe the former is still slightly higher than the latter.
The main reason is that BTC is currently a speculative market, dominated by contracts, whether it is retail investors, market makers, or exchanges, all are highly eager to participate in the contract market.
If it does not rise to 98000, a large number of short positions will profit, and the money in the market is limited, which will be taken away by these short positions, making it unacceptable for large funds.
They can see all market information and have enough capital to push the market to force these short positions to stop loss.
These stop losses for short positions, once they become fuel, can lead to a smooth decline.
Therefore, I have always been more inclined to believe that it will still reach 98000.
