The options market is not showing sharp signals yet. However, the caution of traders on Deribit is gradually building up tension, which may manifest in the coming days.
On Friday, options worth about $3.18 billion expired on the platform. The event itself went smoothly and did not trigger sharp movements. However, this was just a minor weekly expiration against the backdrop of a larger monthly, quarterly, and yearly closing scheduled for next week.
Traders are hedging against a decline in Bitcoin.
The main volume was concentrated on Bitcoin. According to Deribit, BTC options with a notional value of about $2.7 billion expired. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin held near the zone of maximum pain around $88,000.
What matters is different. This time, market participants were not eager to push the price towards the level of max pain. Options are increasingly being used as a tool for protection rather than speculative pressure.
The structure of positions indicates an increase in interest in put options below $91,000. The highest concentration of protective bets has formed around $85,000, which looks like insurance in case of a deeper correction.
The put/call ratio for the weekly expiration was 0.8. This means that calls still slightly dominate, but the balance no longer looks aggressively bullish. Above $91,000, call bets dominate, while below that is protection against decline.
Traders are effectively pricing in a scenario of an exit in case of a move towards $80,000. Historically, weekly expirations have often been accompanied by increased volatility over the weekends, but currently, the pressure on the prices of BTC and ETH may smooth out the effect.
ETH looks more resilient than BTC.
Along with Bitcoin, ETH options expired on Friday for approximately $460 million. The level of maximum pain for Ethereum was around $3,100, while the price was trading near $2,953 before expiration.
The distribution of strikes for ETH is more even. The main liquidity of protective positions is concentrated above — around $3,500. This may indicate more neutral or even moderately positive expectations for Ethereum.
Unlike BTC, the options market for ETH looks less tense. Sentiments here are closer to balance, with no clear bias towards protection.
The options market is preparing for the year's end.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, activity in the options market noticeably decreased. After a large expiration at the end of the third quarter, open interest on Deribit decreased and stabilized.
If at the end of Q3 total open interest exceeded $46 billion, by December the figure dropped to $39 billion and has hardly changed over the last three months. Weekly expirations have become smaller in volume, although the baseline level of liquidity remains above that of early autumn.
The key event will be December 26. On this day, options worth approximately $23 billion expire — more than half of the current open interest. The remaining positions will be carried over to the next quarter.
After the annual expiration, the options market may start to regain liquidity again. In the past, derivatives reacted with a lag to price shocks. The autumn decline in October, on the contrary, intensified interest in options as a tool for protection and targeted bets.
Pressure remains on futures.
The stagnation of Bitcoin's price is also affecting the derivatives market as a whole. Interest in futures is declining along with volatility.
Open interest in BTC futures remains around $27 billion and has hardly changed since the October decline. This indicates a wait-and-see position among participants and a lack of a confident trend.
What's next?
Deribit options have not yet become a catalyst for sharp movements, but the market structure is changing. Traders are increasingly hedging against a decline and pricing in negative scenarios, especially for Bitcoin.
Against the backdrop of a large annual expiration, this increases the market's sensitivity. If the price breaks out of the current range, the options market may amplify the movement — even if the impulse comes from outside.
