Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, believes Bitcoin may have completed another halving-driven cycle when viewed through both price action and time duration. While he remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin over the long term, Timmer warns that the market now shows characteristics of a late-cycle phase, with October’s high near $125,000 aligning closely with historical bull-market tops seen in prior cycles.

Using a “Bitcoin analogs” chart that compares current price behavior with past peaks in 2013 and 2017, Timmer argues that the time component of the rally has caught up with price, a condition that has historically preceded extended cooling periods. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically entered a drawdown or consolidation phase lasting close to a year after topping, leading Timmer to suggest that 2026 could function as an “off-year” for the market.

He places a key support zone between $65,000 and $75,000, which overlaps with broader drawdown models pointing to a 35%–55% decline from the cycle high. Recent market data, including weaker follow-through after the peak, tighter liquidity, declining appetite for leveraged long positions, and rising sell-side pressure from older coins returning to exchanges, supports the idea of a post-peak reset rather than a continuation of the bull trend.

At the same time, the durability of the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is increasingly debated. Analysts such as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argue that ETFs, deeper derivatives markets, and broader institutional participation may smooth out the boom-and-bust dynamics that once defined Bitcoin cycles. Even so, Timmer and others note that ETF flows themselves have become a powerful driver of price, meaning macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates, real yields, and the U.S. dollar—could play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026, whether the market experiences a prolonged winter or a more moderate reset.