Anndy Lian
The great crypto disconnect: US inflation drops, but BTC keeps falling
While Asian equities celebrated renewed optimism following softer-than-expected US inflation data, the cryptocurrency market entered another phase of retreat, weighed down by a confluence of structural and behavioural forces that signal a deeper realignment in investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6 per cent, buoyed by semiconductor leader TSMC and SoftBank Group, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.1 per cent ahead of a highly anticipated Bank of Japan policy decision.
This regional strength stemmed directly from the US Consumer Price Index’s unexpected drop to 2.7 per cent in November, well beneath the forecasted 3.1 per cent and marking the weakest annual gain since early 2021. Markets interpreted this data as a green light for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, injecting fresh momentum into risk assets across Asia.
At the same time, crypto experienced a further 0.79 per cent decline over the past 24 hours, extending its seven-day slide to 7.57 per cent. This divergence underscores a critical transformation underway. Bitcoin and other digital assets are no longer moving in lockstep with macro liquidity signals or tech-sector sentiment. Instead, they face internal pressures so profound that even historically supportive macro backdrops fail to provide a floor.
Gold surged to an all-time high of US$4330 per ounce, while silver breached US$66 per ounce, levels never before seen in financial history. This shift toward metals reflects a pronounced change in risk perception among institutional and retail investors alike. Unlike in previous cycles, when crypto often benefited from expectations of monetary easing or inflation fears, today’s capital flows into tangible, state-endorsed stores of value rather than decentralised alternatives.
Bitcoin, despite its decade-long narrative as digital gold, has failed to capture this demand. Year-to-date, it is down approximately 8 per cent, and its price correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has weakened to a near-zero 24-hour correlation coefficient of negative 0.03. This decoupling reveals a troubling reality. Crypto’s identity as a risk-on asset is being challenged not only by external macroeconomic conditions but also by its own inability to serve as a reliable hedge during periods of economic uncertainty. Investors now seem to view gold and silver, rather than bitcoin, as the primary beneficiaries of monetary instability, geopolitical tensions, and inflation volatility.
Compounding this macro-level rejection is a relentless wave of selling from bitcoin’s most steadfast cohort, long-term holders. According to available data, nearly US$300 billion worth of bitcoin that had remained dormant for over one year re-entered active circulation in 2025 alone. This represents the largest distribution by long-term holders since 2020 and includes approximately 1.6 million coins that had been untouched for at least two years. The significance of this behaviour cannot be overstated. These are not speculative traders reacting to short-term volatility. They are early adopters, whales, and conviction-driven investors who have weathered multiple market cycles. Their decision to sell suggests a fundamental reassessment of bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
This exodus has coincided precisely with bitcoin’s 30 per cent decline from its October peak of US$126000, indicating that the selling pressure is not merely a reaction to price drops but a driving force behind them. The phenomenon resembles a slow bleed, a steady offloading into thin order books that lacks the drama of a crash but inflicts sustained downward pressure. With the 24-hour Relative Strength Index sitting at 36.36, just above the oversold threshold of 30, the market teeters on the edge of potential capitulation. If that support breaks, a deeper correction could follow, particularly if long-term holders accelerate their distributions.
Further amplifying the downside has been a wave of forced liquidations in the derivatives market. Over the past 24 hours, US$176 million in bitcoin positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for 66 per cent of those losses, a clear sign of leveraged bullish bets being unwound. This liquidation cascade acted as a multiplier on the initial selling pressure, pushing prices lower in a feedback loop that discouraged new buyers.
There is a silver lining in this deleveraging. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has declined by four per cent, indicating that traders are reducing their leverage exposure. This deleveraging, while painful in the short term, lowers the systemic risk of a disorderly collapse. A less leveraged market is more resilient to flash crashes and more likely to stabilise once sentiment shifts. The immediate impact remains bearish, as each wave of liquidations reinforces the perception of weakness and deters momentum-driven capital from entering.
What makes this moment particularly significant is the behaviour of capital within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance now stands at 59.36 per cent, a three-month high, which might superficially suggest strength. In reality, it reflects a broader flight from the asset class altogether, not a rotation into bitcoin from altcoins, but a wholesale exit from crypto in favour of traditional safe havens. Investors are not reallocating within digital assets. They are withdrawing from them. This trend raises an urgent question for the coming months.
Can institutional inflows through spot ETFs offset the sustained outflow from long-term holders? Some analysts argue that institutional participation, fuelled by ETF approvals and allocations from major financial firms, is already reducing bitcoin’s volatility, citing a 68 per cent price swing in 2025 compared to Nvidia’s 120 per cent as evidence of maturation. That theoretical stability means little when real-time price action tells a story of persistent selling and broken technical levels.
In conclusion, the US$2.88 trillion market capitalisation level, derived from key Fibonacci retracement levels, emerges as a critical support zone. A decisive close below this threshold could trigger an additional five to seven per cent drop as algorithmic trading models and risk-managed portfolios recalibrate their exposure. Conversely, a firm hold above this level, combined with signs of stabilisation in long-term holder behaviour and renewed ETF inflows, could set the stage for a relief rally. For now, the path of least resistance remains downward.
The confluence of safe-haven rotations, veteran investor profit-taking, and derivatives deleveraging has created a perfect storm that even favourable macro news from the US CPI cannot immediately dispel. Bitcoin may be maturing with respect to volatility metrics, but maturity also entails facing the consequences of market-structure shifts without the artificial buoyancy of speculative fervour.
The next few weeks, especially in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and continued Fed commentary, will determine whether this correction marks a temporary pause in a structural bull market or the beginning of a more prolonged reassessment of crypto’s role in a post-rate-hike, risk-conscious world.
Source: https://e27.co/the-great-crypto-disconnect-us-inflation-drops-but-btc-keeps-falling-20251219/
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