With only 10 days left until the end of 2025, the fear and greed index in the crypto market remains firmly in the extreme fear zone, and market confidence is as fragile as a thin layer of ice. Bitcoin is struggling to hold the support level between $86,000 and $90,000, appearing tenuous and, in reality, on the verge of collapse.
I especially want to remind newcomers who have just entered the market not to cling to the fantasy of a miraculous rebound by the end of the year. The main funds have already sounded the retreat, and European and American institutions are busy with their Christmas holidays; the buying pressure in the entire market has weakened to the point of being unresponsive. The liquidity risk before and after the dual holidays really needs to be emphasized—U.S. stocks will either be closed or only partially open, and the fund activity in the crypto market will directly plummet. During such times, sudden price spikes with no warning are most likely to occur, catching both bulls and bears off guard.
Another point that is easily overlooked is that European and American investors have a habit at the end of the year: selling off loss-making assets to offset taxes. This means that in the coming days, there could be a wave of passive selling pressure. More critically, those short-term investors who bought in at the high positions of $110,000 to $120,000 this year, who have been holding onto losses for an entire year, are likely to choose to cut losses and exit in these last few days. This wave of selling pressure could exacerbate the already fragile market conditions.
Looking back at 2025, it is not an exaggeration to say that it is a significant year for BTC sales. $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin is re-entering the market, with most of the year spent in a downward trend, and ETFs are experiencing continued net outflows. These signals have long since clarified the trend. The institutions and veteran players who positioned themselves between $100,000 and $120,000 from 2022 to 2023 have completed a beautiful exchange of chips at these high levels this year; for them, this game is now reaching its conclusion.
However, the market has always had people exiting and entering. For institutions and long-term investors looking to position for the next cycle, around January next year may be a good window. Surviving this wave of year-end liquidity trough and selling pressure, new opportunities may be just around the corner.
