Goldman Sachs calls for a 'Christmas rally', should Bitcoin follow? Don't be naive, the last 5 days may see bloodshed.

Last night, Goldman Sachs stated that 'the probability of a Christmas rally in the US stock market is 75%', and the traditional market cheered. But for those in the crypto space, don’t rush to follow the trend and shout bull — behind this news lies a more brutal script.

Where is the connection? Liquidity siphoning.

If the US stock market really rallies, short-term funds will flood into the traditional market even more crazily, and the crypto space may face a 'blood-letting effect'. Large institutions, in times of high volatility, will prioritize replenishing their US stock positions, making cryptocurrencies a 'liquidity backup'. Historical data? That is the history of the US stock market, not Bitcoin's.

The underlying message that Goldman Sachs didn't fully articulate:

'Unless a major shock' — and the crypto space itself is the source of major shocks. December is often a peak period for black swans: fluctuations in exchange reserves, unusual on-chain movements by large holders, and regulatory announcements suddenly appearing late at night... Any one of these could disrupt the so-called 'seasonal benefits'.

What should players do?

Give up on fantasies and be wary of false signals: If BTC follows the US stock market to surge, especially with sudden spikes on low volume, it is likely an escape wave, not a reversal.

Keep a close eye on USDT market cap: If the supply of stablecoins hasn’t increased, any rise is merely a game of existing stocks and won’t last.

Save enough ammunition and wait for panic sell-offs: If the market suddenly crashes due to liquidity withdrawal, that is when you should be greedy.

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